Wednesday, July 20, 2011

Tropical Weather Update

    National Hurricane Center is still issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Bret. The storm is currently situated 290 miles south-east of Cape Hatteras. GOES satellite imagery & Air Force Reserve hurricane hunters' data indicates that the storm has remained relatively stable over the past 12 hours or so. At last report, winds were at 45 knots, pressure was steady at 1001 millibars. Data also indicates dry air has is steadily mixing into the storm, draining Bret's convective energy. Upper level wind shear is forecast to further weaken the storm over the next 48 hours.

    Forecasters predict that Bret will continue on a north-northeastward track, fully dissipating sometime Friday. Bret will continue to disrupt sea surface conditions within a respective radius. Coastal warnings stretch from the southern tip of Florida to the Delmarva Peninsula. Any beach-goers this week/weekend might be disappointed with the high surf. Debris and aquatic life such as jellyfish are known to wash ashore when storms brush this close to the Atlantic coast. This, along with the high surf is usually enough to creep most beach-goers out of the water.

    Elsewhere in the Atlantic...an area of interest has developed 440 miles east of Bermuda. Forecasters predict that the system may become better organized & has a 60% chance of becoming tropical in the next 48 hours. Will report later this week as the system progresses northeastward at 20 MPH.

Areas of showers & storms ejecting westward off the west coast of Africa, about 5N of the equator are also beginning to show potential for tropical development. Although it is still very early in the season, tropical activity appears to be slightly above average this year. Sea surface temperatures across the Caribbean Gulf of Mexico and parts of the Atlantic are in the low to mid 80s. Will keep an eye on conditions & report any new developments.

    In the East Pacific...Dora has been upgraded to Category 1 Hurricane. Located roughly 15N 112W; winds are 70 knots, sea surface pressure is 981 millibars.  Dora will threaten the southern tip of Baja in the next 60 hours. Forecasters predict Dora will  reach peak intensity Friday, continue on a more or less northwestward track & further weaken over the weekend.