Tuesday, May 31, 2011

High pressure, temperatures in the mid 90s & plenty of sunshine arrive just in time for the unofficial start to summer. Despite only a few upcoming days with chance thunderstorms, the hot & dry forecast will stay with us into at least next week. Near record temperatures continue today. For tonight, temps will stay warm with lows in the upper 60s. Light patchy fog will develop overnight & burn off quickly Wednesday.

Otherwise the rest of Wednesday will be mostly sunny with highs in the low 90s. Much of our area will be under a slight chance of a thunderstorm for the afternoon & evening hours ahead of a cold front swinging through the area Wednesday night. Look for lows in the mid 50s Wednesday night as the system exits east.

We're lookin' at more sunshine with lots of dry air Thursday. We'll get a break from the oppressive heat as well. Temps will be a few degrees cooler than previous days, reaching the mid 80s. Cool air will linger into Thursday night keeping lows in the mid to upper 50s.

Friday will be partly cloudy with a slight chance of a afternoon convection thunderstorm. Otherwise rain chances remain slim and brief through this weekend and into next week. High will build back into the area for this weekend. Daytime highs will again be in the low 90s.

Friday, May 27, 2011

Muggy & mostly cloudy with rain showers ending this evening. Forecast turns warmer with plenty of sunshine through Memorial Day. Flash flood watch for the Eastern Panhandle has been set to expire this evening.

Surface front extending across the east will gradually pivot eastward today, weakening as it exits the area. Despite the limited sunshine today we can expect a generally dry forecast for much of this morning & into the afternoon. Few leftover rain showers & and isolated storm are still possible this evening before skies really dry out tonight into Saturday.

Temperatures will stay modest today. Lots of cloud cover will keep sunshine at a minimum. Highs will be in the upper 70s. Showers come to an end tonight, winds die down & allow for some patchy fog to develop into early Saturday. Expect lows in the low 60s overnight.

Upper level ridging will be just beginning to take hold over the Mid-Atlantic states Saturday morning. Plenty of sunshine will be on tap from Saturday, right through the first part of next week! Southerly air stream will start bringing much warmer, subtropical air into the area from the Gulf of Mexico. Highs will be in the upper 80s Saturday, then in the 90s Sunday. So we'll keep a slim chance of a few isolated thunder cells over the long weekend. Any storms would most likely fire up in the late afternoon/evening when daytime heating peaks. Otherwise, nights will be mild with lows in the mid 60s. Patchy river valley fog will settle in during the wee morning hours but will burn off very quickly.

Forecast will stay hot and dry for Memorial Day and into midweek next week. Cannot rule out an isolated storm, given that plenty of daytime heating would fuel convective thunderstorms. Still, chances for rain remain slim until perhaps Wednesday night/Thursday. Still too early to try to get fancy with forecast for late next week. So enjoy the holiday weekend!!

Wednesday, May 25, 2011

Still plenty of sunshine in the forecast today as low pressure & severe weather continues to bully the Midwest states. Frontal boundary traversing the Great Lakes today will sag south, tossing some moisture & cloud cover into the northern & western zones of West Virginia. Still, rain/Tstorm chances are slim & limited to those portions of our state today. Any storms that do manage to make it this far east will have weakened considerably upon crossing the Ohio River. Strong winds would be the primary threat for those northwest WV.

A weak southerly air flow will keep temperatures consistent with highs in the low 80s during the day today. A stronger southerly flow will take hold tonight, keeping overnight lows much warmer than what we have seen over the past few nights.

Warmer trend continues Thursday temperatures inching close to 90 during the day. This daytime heating will combine with another wave of upper level disturbance to bring lower cloud cover & a few scattered rain showers and thunderstorms Thursday afternoon and into the night. Forecast still needs fine tuning but am thinking we'll see a few bands of storms cross the mountains Thursday night/Friday...weakening as they progress east.

Friday, temperatures will hold in the upper 70s/low 80s. Upper level disturbance will keep generally cloudy skies for most of the day. Good chance for rain showers & thunderstorms to still be firing off during the day. Skies begin to clear, rain pulls away Friday night, into Saturday.

A few stray thundercells are possible from Saturday into the beginning of next week. However, overall trend will stay dry & much warmer. Highs in the low 90s are in store to finish out the holiday weekend & to start next week.

Tuesday, May 24, 2011

Severe weather continues to plague the Midwest! While here, another day of temperatures in the low 80s today. Sun/cloud mix, a few broken bands of rain  with embedded thunderstorm activity expected through tonight. Some storms may be severe, although they will have weakened a bit after crossing the Ohio river. Main threat would be hail and damaging winds. Lows will be around 60 tonight under partly cloudy skies. Thick patchy fog may have time to develop by Wednesday morning.

Wednesday's forecast will be about the same as today. That low pressure disturbance will migrate north and leave only a slight chance of a few isolated showers for the northern & western counties of West Virginia. Elsewhere, sunshine will be on the increase with temperatures again reaching the low 80s...Lows will be around 60 Wednesday night.

Then our chance for rain increases again Thursday & Thursday night as another low pressure disturbance approaches from the west. Some severe weather may develop with that system Thursday. Timing and track still need fine tuning, so stay tuned.

A few rain showers will linger into Friday. Slight chance of showers will stick around Saturday. Another low pressure system arrives Sunday. For now, will settle on rain Friday, generally dry Saturday, then rain again on Sunday. Will iron out the kinks in the holiday forecast as model guidance settles on a solution in the next day or so.

Thursday, May 19, 2011

Spinning top over the east coast finally begins to push north today & tonight. Mostly cloudy forecast continues this evening with chance for scattered rain showers and isolated thunder. Temperatures stay mild today & tonight with highs in the upper 60s. Overnight lows will be around 50. Flooding concerns for the Eastern Panhandle & along the Potomac River Valley continue into early this weekend. Waters will receed Saturday.

High pressure begins to build into the area tonight. This will allow for gradually clearing skies and a brief break from the rain to start the weekend. Areas of fog will develop early Friday. Otherwise Friday will be partly/mostly cloudy with temperatures staying modest, struggling to reach the low 70s.

Forecast will stay dry Friday night with lows once again falling to around 50 under mostly clear skies. But the calm conditions will allow for another foggy start Saturday morning. Then we finally get our big break!  Expect mostly sunny skies with highs around 80.  We'll stay in the warm sector with highs in the 80s through at least the middle of next week.

Take advantage of the nice weather because another wave of scattered rain showers and occasional thunderstorms starts Saturday night, lasting through the middle of next week.

A quick look at the extended forecast hints at rain Friday, then drying out for the long holiday weekend. Stay tuned for updates later next week! Enjoy!

Wednesday, May 18, 2011

Low pressure pushing northwest today brings more unsettled weather to our area. Scattered rain showers and a few possibly severe thunderstorms will develop today. A flood watch is in effect for our area until midnight tonight. Elsewhere, flash flood watches/warnings have also been hoisted.

Other severe weather threats may arise this afternoon as well. Severe thunderstorms may produce damaging winds, hail, repeated heavy downpours and even the potential for a tornado or two. Areas affected by the severe weather threat have been highlighted by our friends at the Storm Prediction Center. Severe weather warnings may pop up later today. Stay tuned to local TV/radio, NOAA weather radio or weather.gov for the most up-to-date information!

Recent satellite imagery shows that despite moderate cloud cover, the potential exists for plenty of sunshine to reach the surface today. This will facilitate atmospheric instability & the development of potentially severe thunderstorms this afternoon & evening. Some storms have already shown signs of low level rotation, indicative of mesocyclones, known to generate tornados.

Otherwise, temperatures tonight will once again fall to the low 50s & upper 40s. For Thursday, low pressure will finally begin to exit across northern West Virginia. Highs will be in the low 70s under mostly cloudy skies. Still expecting a few bands of rain across the area during the day. However, high pressure will finally begin to build into the area & dry things out Thursday night. Temperatures will be on the cool side again Thursday night, with lows in the upper 40s.

We'll keep our forecast dry Friday! We will begin seeing more sunshine, with a gradual warming trend right through the weekend & into next week. Highs Friday will be in the mid 70s, then expect temps in the low to mid 80s for Saturday & Sunday.

Chance for more showers & thunderstorms returns Saturday night, right on through Tuesday of next week!

Tuesday, May 17, 2011

Low pressure center continues to deliver lots of low level moisture to the area today. Overcast skies with rainy conditions persist while high water concerns begin to pop up, especially in the Eastern Panhandle. Occasional heavy rainfall & flash flooding could occur. Afternoon convection will spell potential for a few short-lived thunderstorms for eastern portions of West Virginia today. Scattered rain showers continue tonight. Temperatures will reach the upper 60s today & will fall into the low 50s tonight.

Low level mositure will linger for yet another damp dreary day Wednesday. Morning fog, more rain showers & a few thunderstorms will dominate the forecast, especially to the north. A few peaks of sunshine will break out, allowing for temps to warm into the lower 70s during the day. This will facilitate the development of a few thunderstorms with more potential for locally heavy downpours Wednesday & Wednesday night. Temps fall to the low 50s tomorrow night.

Low pressure will slowly begin to exit to the north Thursday. However, enough moisture will stick around to keep a few scattered rain showers in the forecast during the day and even into Thursday night. High pressure will gradually build into the region & dry our skies by Friday evening. We'll stay dry Friday night and Saturday. Temperatures will warm into the low 80s for the weekend! More rain is in the cards for Sunday & into next week.

Monday, May 16, 2011

Low pressure waivering over the east coast sets up spotty rain showers & generally overcast skies into Thursday. Mild temperatures & widespread morning fog are on tap through the first half of this week as well. High pressure with gradual warming and and clearer skies arrive Friday, into the weekend.

For tonight, lows will fall to the upper 40s. Low pressure center will slowly press north, tossing lots of low level moisture into our area. Fog will develop early Tuesday. We'll see more widespread rain showers, especially to the south where daytime highs will reach slightly warmer than to the north. Highs will be in the mid to upper 60s Tuesday.

Another upper level disturbance is on track for Tuesday night/Wednesday. This will bring generally cloudy skies & scattered rain showers Tuesday & Tuesday night. Otherwise we can epect lows in the low 50 to mid 50s.

Rain showers & a few thunderstorms are possible Wednesday. A few peaks of sunshine will begin to break out as well. This will add  instability & potential for locally heavy downpours, dangerous lightning & hail. Five-day rain totals paint more than one inch of rain for much of West Virginia. With more than four inches of additional rainfall expected furher east, from Monday morning through Saturday AM flooding concerns may arise along the Potomac Valley towards the end of the week.

A few leftover rain showers are on tap for Thursday. Temps will be in the low 70s. High pressure will build into the area by Friday. This will provide clearer skies, sunshine and slightly warmer temps for Friday & Saturday. Then more rain arrives by Sunday.

Wednesday, May 11, 2011

Another mostly sunny day with temps in low 80s is on tap today. Lots of humidity and available moisture this afternoon will lead to the redevelopment of a few slow moving potentially heavy thunderstorms, mainly south. Later tonight, upper level ridging to the north will break down allowing for lower cloud deck, rain showers & Tstorms to invade.Temps tonight fall into the mid 50s. We'll also see widespread fog overnight, into Thursday.

Similar forecast unfolds Thursday with increasing clouds & highs in the low 80s. Another round of showers is in the cards for Thursday into Friday. Depending on the timing and track of the upper level low for Friday, some locations could see high water problems due to repeated downpours-especially south & along the Ohio River. Cooler temps with rain likely for the weekend.

Today's forecast Tstorm boundaries

Tuesday, May 10, 2011

Summertime weather prevails with highs in the low 80s through midweek. A severe thunderstorm watch has been issued for much of southwestern West Virginia for tonight. Severe storms with potential for hail & locally heavy downpours are possible south of Rt 33. To the north, we'll see mostly cloudy skies with slight chance of an isolated thunderstorm tongiht. Overnight lows fall to low 50s with patches of morning fog Wednesday.

We'll keep temps in the low 80s with partly to mostly cloudy skies for northern West Virginia and for the Eastern Panhandle. However, the threat for potentially severe late day thunderstorms continues each day, especially further south & along the Ohio River Valley. Rain showers, isolated thunderstorms & cooler temperatures on tap for Friday through this weekend.
2-day rain totals

Monday, May 9, 2011

Warmer air continues to spread into the area this week...we find fewer & fewer excuses to get out of doing yard work. We'll stay dry overnight tonight. Temperatures stay modest with lows in the mid 40s.

Patchy valley fog will develop early Tuesday. That will burn off before mid-morning. Otherwise we'll see another heavy dose of sun with temperatures closing in on 80. Increasing cloud cover will creep into the area from the southwest as the day progresses. A few pop up thunderstorms threaten the area as well. Locally heavy downpours with potential for hail & strong winds are possible during the afternoon and into Tuesday night, especially to the south due to presence of warmer air & greater instability. Further north, we may escape with dry weather until sometime Thursday.

Warm trend continues with plenty of sunshine still in the forecast Wednesday. Slight chance for isolated showers & thunderstorms continues, especially to the south. Highs will be in the low to mid 80s, with lows in the upper 50s.

Expect thicker/lower cloud cover Wednesday night & Thursday. Slightly cooler temperatures with more unsettled weather is on tap Friday through this weekend.

Friday, May 6, 2011

Forecast brings a sun/cloud mix with on/off rain showers this evening through Mother's Day Sunday. We'll see a gradual warming trend into next week as well! Upper 60s Saturday, 70s Sunday...even well into the 80s next week. Night time temps will hold in the upper 40s. Monday looks nice & sunny! A few scattered thunderstorms are possible Tuesday & into most of next week. Current radar shows a few fragmented showers making their way into our vicinity.

Tuesday, May 3, 2011

A cold front will push east across the Great Lakes & into the Ohio River tonight. Scattered rain showers and few thunderstorms are likely tonight into Wednesday. Cooler air behind the front will put temperatures in the upper 40s tonight. Daytime temperatures Wednesday will only be in the low to mid 50s.

Cool air will stick around Wednesday night with overnight lows in the upper 30s. High pressure will provide clearer skies Thursday. Sunshine will help temperatures reach the low to mid 60s during the day Thursday.

A couple of quick upper level disturbances will keep periods of rain and cool temperatures in the forecast Friday through the Mother's Day weekend. Extended forecast hints at warmer air arriving for the beginning of next week.

Warmer air next week...