Wednesday, August 31, 2011

     Weak disturbances cross north of our area today as high pressure manages keeps measurable rainfall to our north. This will result in a sun/cloud mix for our area today with a very small chance of an sprinkle in the mountains this evening. Warmer temps and more humidity are in store through the rest of the week. So we'll start September with humid with highs leaning towards 90. Afternoon showers and storms will threaten each day into the weekend as well. A well advertised cold front will drop by Sunday into Monday. Then cooler, more pleasant conditions are on deck for the short work week next week.

     For the rest of today...we've got calm and dry conditions today courtesy of high pressure over the eastern US. Much warmer temperatures & more humidity are on tap this afternoon as highs reach the upper 80s. More cloud cover will develop this evening and overnight as a few weak disturbances cross north of our area. Patchy fog is likely again overnight with lows in the low 60s.

     Thursday will be hot and hazy. In fact, we'll keep oppressive heat & humidity in the forecast through the weekend. Nights will provide some relief. Meanwhile, lots of moisture will lift north into our area, bringing dew points into the mid/upper 60s. It'll be humid, highs near 90 with a sun/cloud mix during the day. A series of upper level disturbances will cross the southern Great Lakes area towards the end of the week. With all the daytime heating and higher dew points, we'll be vulnerable to scattered afternoon thunderstorms Thursday, Friday and Saturday.

     Then a low pressure system will bring a cold frontal boundary across our area Saturday night & Sunday. We'll likely need the rain gear for our first Mountaineer home game against Marshall. Kickoff is Sunday at 3! Cooler, more pleasant weather is in the cards for the beginning of next week. Then the forecast for much of the eastern US will hinge on what develops with Katia.

Tuesday, August 30, 2011

     It's another sunny, warm afternoon courtesy of surface high pressure over the eastern US today. Forecast will be dry and not as cool tonight. High pressure ridging will slide east overnight allowing for warmer & more humid air to infiltrate our area from the southwest. We'll see temps leaning towards the upper 80s & a small chance for an afternoon shower or thunderstorm both Wednesday & Thursday. Friday and Saturday are looking generally dry. But warmer temps & higher dew points may trigger a stray afternoon shower or thunderstorm, especially in our mountain counties. We may need the rain gear for kickoff as cold brings rain Saturday night/Sunday.

     For the rest of today...surface high pressure hangs on to make for a sunny day today. Warmer air lifting north with bring slightly warmer temps for today and tonight. Look  for highs today in the low/mid 80s.

     For tonight...not as cool tonight as last night. Lows will be in the mid 50s with some broken clouds moving in after midnight. Light fog will develop in a few spots by Wednesday morning.

     Otherwise, Wednesday will start sunny with temps reaching the mid 80s again. Increasing afternoon/evening clouds are expected ahead of a weak frontal boundary timed for Wednesday night/Thursday. There's a small chance for a few scattered showers & an isolated storm Wednesday night through Thursday afternoon. More humidity and noticeably higher temperatures are in store towards the end of the week.

     We'll see a sun/cloud mix and an isolated afternoon rumble of thunder Friday and Saturday. Then a cold front will send another shot of rain over our area Saturday night & Sunday.

      On the tropical front...the Gulf of Mexico will raise a few eyebrows over the next few days as an area of low pressure brings a chance for storms & several inches of rain to the Texas/Louisiana area. Model guidance is split down the middle as to whether this scenario will be realized...Also another tropical cyclone may threaten the east coast of the US by the middle of next week. Tropical Depression # 12, still out in the middle of the Atlantic Ocean was upgraded to Tropical Strom Katia last night. Further strengthening is expected in the coming days as she grazes the northern Leeward Islands. Will report of the progress of this storm it develops!

     Nearly 9 inches of rain would be a welcome prospect in Texas...Click to enlarge photo!

Monday, August 29, 2011

     Latest weak weather disturbance slides east & brings scattered clouds & an isolated shower across the Ohio Valley & Mid Atlantic states today & tonight. Otherwise, a few peaks of sunshine will puts temps into the mid 70s, making for just about perfect weather today. We'll get a fall teaser again tonight as a northerly air flow brings cool dry air into the mountains overnight. Lows tonight will fall into the upper 40s/50. Sunny Tuesday with highs in the low 80s. Warmer air lifts north for Wednesday. We may see a few fragmented showers Wednesday night/Thursday. But this week's forecast will stay mostly sunny & dry with highs in the low/mid 80s & cooler nights. Cold front will bring better chance of rain this weekend.

     For the rest of today. Surface high pressure brings sunshine & dry forecast to much of the eastern US in the wake of Irene. A weak disturbance will cross the Ohio Valley today bringing a sun/cloud mix and small chance for an isolated mountain shower this afternoon into tonight. A northerly upper air flow will bring patchy dense fog & temperatures to near 50 tonight with upper 40s in the higher elevations.

     Surface high pressure means Tuesday will be sunny with highs near 80.

     Wednesday will start dry as high pressure gradually slides east. A weak front out of the west will bring more clouds, slight chance of thunder & warmer temperatures to our area Wednesday. Threat for isolated thunder will carry into Thursday. Another frontal boundary will move east timed for this weekend. This will bring a more active weather pattern through the end of the week. At the moment, forcing and dynamics look unimpressive. But we may need rain gear for kickoff Sunday @ 3.

     A look at the extended hints at another tropical system effecting the eastern seaboard towards the middle of next week! Current weather maps initialize this as tropical depression #12. Will report on TD 12 and this weekend's football weather more this week!

Thursday, August 25, 2011

Cold front sweeps through our area this afternoon & evening. Mountain showers gradually come to an end later this evening. High pressure on the backside of the front will allow for more calm weather overnight. Slightly cooler & drier air tonight with patchy fog into Friday. Sunshine Friday with highs in the low/mid 80s. Irene will pass east of our area this weekend. We'll see breezy conditions, some cloud cover & a chance for a raindrop late Saturday or Sunday this weekend. Further east, Irene will cause water problems from the Carolinas to Maine over the weekend.

For the rest of today...Some precip still occurring in our mountain counties & in the Eastern Panhandle as the front gets hung up there. Restrengthening is possible with any afternoon storms firing in the east. Flash flood watches have been posted for DC/MD/VA. No watches/warnings are currently active for West Virginia. Behind the front, a northwest air flow will help slightly cooler & drier air to mix into our area overnight. So patchy dense fog development is likely tonight into Friday morning. Lows will be in the low 60s.

High pressure will build in over the southern Great Lakes Friday morning, keeping dry weather & mostly sunny skies in the forecast Friday & Saturday. Temperatures will be on the average for this time of year. Highs will be in the mid 80s.

Irene will pass east of our area over the weekend, tossing some moisture onto our back door in the process. Effects will be significantly limited this far inland. But things will be breezy and folks in the east will likely see periodic rain as bands of moisture expand from Irene's periphery. Folks in and around flood-prone, urban & mountainous areas will need to pay close attention to weekend rainfall amounts & watch for flood problems!

Our forecast through at least the first part of next week looks generally tranquil with average temps.

Wednesday, August 24, 2011

    Warm front brings more moisture to our area under mostly cloudy skies today. Scattered rain showers and thunderstorms will spread southeast into our area as early as late-afternoon ahead of a cold front timed to cross our area tonight into early Thursday. We'll gradually dry off with more sunshine & slightly cooler temperatures for the end of the work week. Hurricane Irene will become a major threat to the East Coast & Mid Atlantic states over the weekend, then New England to start next week. Our area will merely see peripheral effects, mainly breezy conditions over the weekend.

    For the rest of today...a few peaks of sunshine will break our afternoon cloud cover allowing for warm air mixing & sunshine to put highs in the mid/upper 80s today. Scattered rain showers & thunderstorms will develop this evening ahead of a cold front timed for tonight & Thursday. Breezy conditions and periods of locally heavy rainfall are also possible tonight. With the cloud cover and warm air mixing, we'll keep overnight temperatures in the upper 60s/low 70s overnight.

    The threat for scattered storms will continue for the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic states during the day Thursday. And again, any storms that develop could produce strong gusty winds & heavy rain Thursday. Local rain showers and isolated storms are possible in our mountain counties into mid to late afternoon Thursday. Then that cool frontal boundary will slowly sweep past our area around sunset. Surface high pressure and slightly cooler temperatures in its wake will make for a pleasant end to the workweek. So slightly cooler & drier air with plenty of sunshine is on deck for Friday. Temperatures will top out in the low 80s.

    Our weekend forecast will hinge somewhat on the timing and track of Hurricane Irene. NHC estimates that Irene will continue to strengthen and could become a Category 4 hurricane by week's end. Forecasters predict that Irene will graze Florida's east coast, pass about 70 miles east of Cape Fear & the Outer Banks of NC in the next 76 hours. Mandatory evacuations are in effect for Ocracoke Island and the Outer Banks. Current forecasts also place Irene continuing north, into the Mid-Atlantic and New England states over the weekend & into next week. So Irene is a major threat to the Atlantic coastline from Florida to New York. Hurricane/tropical storm force winds, 10+ inches of rainfall and a dangerous storm surge are also possible.

    According to current forecast models, our area, despite Irene's proximity will see very little in the way of effects. Some high cirrus clouds and breezy conditions are possbile. That leaves a generally sunny and mild forecast with highs in the low to mid 80s this weekend. Further east, steady rains over the next 5 days could trigger high water problems. With still plenty of time & opportunity for the track to change, watch for more updates to come!

Check out the 5 day rainfall forecast! Click to enlarge.

Tuesday, August 23, 2011

****Did you feel that?!***

5.9 magnitude earthquake occurred at 1:51 PM EST. The epicenter was 66 miles northwest of Richmond, VA at a depth of 1 kilometer. The activity was felt across much of West Virginia and surrounding areas. Click the USGS website for more info...

Many school systems have decided to send their students home.

    High pressure will keep the forecast dry tonight through Wednesday. The next system will approach from the Ohio Valley late Wednesday night into Thursday. Warmer temps & increasing clouds are in store ahead of the front Wednesday. Scattered rain showers and thunderstorms are possible Wednesday night/Thursday with potential for heavy rain in spots. A few leftover showers are possible Friday morning. Irene will pass east of our area, hardly affecting our weekend weather. Eastern West Virginia may see some light rain showers Sunday & Sunday night.

    Northwest air flow kept temperatures on the cool side this morning. Warmer air mixing in during the afternoon will put our high for today around 76. Clear skies are forecast tonight with another cool night on tap. Lows will fall into the mid 50s and patchy valley fog will develop into early Wednesday.

    The forecast will stay dry & warmer during the day Wednesday. Temps will reach the mid/upper 80s. But high pressure will slide east of our area as the day progresses. Increasing clouds are in store Wednesday afternoon & evening ahead of the front. Then scattered rain showers and thunderstorms are likely after midnight into Thursday morning with some periods of heavy rainfall possible. Strong gusty winds are also likely Wednesday night & during the day Thursday.

    The front will be slow to exit our area, leaving the possibility for some light leftover rain showers into Friday morning. Otherwise, tranquil, slightly cooler air & mostly sunny skies return for the end of the week. Forecast will stay sunny Friday afternoon into Saturday. Highs will be in the mid/upper 80s through week's end.

    Some uncertainty still exists towards the end of the extended forecast. Depending on the timing and track of Hurricane Irene, some parts of the Mountain State could see some peripheral affects...Hurricane Irene has been upgraded to a Category 2 and further strengthening is expected later today & Wednesday. Experts predict that Irene will only graze Florida's east coast & make landfall near the Myrtle Beach/Wilmington area as a major hurricane in the next 100 hours. Winds up to 115 MPH and a dangerous storm surge will accompany Irene's landfall over the weekend. More than 12 inches of rain is also possible for parts of coastal Carolinas. Five inches or so is possible for the DC/Baltimore area. Travelers would do well to avoid anything east of I-95 in the coming days.

Thursday, August 18, 2011

A tricky forecast unfolds through the end of the week...A weak disturbance brings a chance for isolated afternoon and evening thunderstorms. Friday's forecast will be mostly cloudy but mainly dry with temps reaching the mid 80s. Threat for rain/storms returns Friday night into early Saturday. We'll eek by with some sunshine & a mainly dry forecast for Saturday. Then a stronger wave brings better rain chances Sunday.

For tonight...increasing cloud cover is expected as a weak front brings limited moisture into our area. Nearly saturated air aloft and plenty of daytime heating could trigger a few showers and thunderstorms early this evening into the overnight hours. Main threat for showers & storms will be in our mountain counties and in the Eastern Panhandle of West Virginia. Lows tonight will fall into the low 60s.

Friday's forecast will start mostly cloudy with a few leftover rain showers. But weak high pressure will provide slightly drier air for much o the day. Some sunshine will still reach the surface so I see no reason why highs won't be about the same as today. So look for variable clouds with highs in the mid 80s again. Forecast will stay mainly dry through the afternoon & evening but rain showers and isolated storms are possible Friday night into the wee hours of Saturday morning. Lows will be in the low to mid 60s with thicker cloud cover keepin' things relatively warm.

Warmer air will lift north into our area during the day Saturday. Highs will reach the low/mid 80s. Some sunshine is still on tap during the day. But that sunny forecast will erode quickly Saturday afternoon & evening. A quick short wave disturbance will cross our area bringing the threat for an isolated afternoon storm Saturday through Saturday night.

Another stronger, well-defined front will develop west of our area Sunday. So we'll keep the threat for scattered rain showers and thunderstorms Sunday evening into early Monday. Slightly cooler air is on tap for the beginning of next week. But the second half of next week looks hot at the moment.

A look at the extended shows a strong Atlantic Coast cyclone running across Hispaniola & Cuba next week...Looks like it may become a tropical storm or hurricane & run against Florida & up the Atlantic coast by next weekend...Will keep on eye on that for ya & report my findings!

Wednesday, August 17, 2011

High pressure makes for another dry, sunny day today. Weak frontal boundary will bring chance for rain and isolated thunder late Thursday & Friday. High pressure with sunshine & warmer temperatures are on tap for Saturday & Sunday. Another wave of wet weather will bring rain chances & slightly cooler temps for the beginning of next week.

For today...Just a few high level cirrus clouds are visible on satellite imagery this afternoon. Otherwise, we have plenty of sunshine & highs in the mid/upper 80s in store for the rest of today.

Tonight...another clear, calm night will set up dense valley fog to develop overnight, into Thursday. Lows will fall to the upper 50s/low 60s.

Thursday will start dry with some sunshine & highs in the mid 80s. But a weak frontal boundary will approach from the southwest. Cloud cover will be on the increase by Thursday afternoon. Limited moisture aloft during the day Thursday will inhibit our chances for rainfall. But rainfall for our area will eventually materialize by Thursday night.

Rain and scattered thunderstorms are likely Friday morning & early afternoon as the front stalls over our area. Cloud cover will keep temperatures moderate, with highs reaching the low/mid 80s. But further weakening is expected with this system as it slowly progresses eastward. High pressure will dry things out Friday night, setting the stage for a nice weekend of weather.

High pressure with lots of sunshine will provide warmer daytime highs over the weekend. Look or highs to reach the upper 80s both Saturday and Sunday. Another better defined frontal system will cross our area Sunday night, bringing good chances for rain & cooler temps into the first part of next week.

Tuesday, August 16, 2011

High pressure ushers in lots of sunshine and seasonal temperatures today and Wednesday. Weak forcing brings chance for rain Thursday & Friday. A nice weekend is on tap with highs in the mid/upper 80s. Rain returns late Sunday into Monday of next week.

For the rest of today...High pressure gains control over the eastern US today as low pressure center exits east, onto the Atlantic Coast. Limited cloud cover still lingering in our mountain counties will burn off later today as surface high pressure gains better grip on our area. So plenty of sunshine is in store today. Temperatures will be right around average for this time of year. Look for a high of 80.

For tonight...our forecast will stay clear and calm with widespread fog building into Wednesday morning. Lows will fall to 56.

Wednesday, we'll see plenty of sunshine as high pressure continues its reign over the eastern US. Highs will be in the mid/upper 80s. However another trough crossing the southern Great Lakes will bring limited moisture into the area allowing for more cloud cover to develop Wednesday afternoon & evening. Warmer air will also be lifting north ahead of the front, hence the warmer temps.

Upper trough & associated cold front will advance closer to our area Thursday providing mostly cloudy skies & a chance for periods of rain and perhaps a stray rumble of thunder Thursday afternoon & into Friday. Upper level instability & available moisture appear to be insufficient for significant thunderstorm development. Patchy rain & strong gusty winds are still likely as the front crosses our area late Friday.

High pressure with sunshine and warmer temps are on tap this weekend. This will set the stage for one last hoo-rah for all the returning students-that is..until game day, 09/04/11 against Marshall!! Kickoff is @ 3:30!

Monday, August 15, 2011

Low pressure slides east today. Skies gradually dry out overnight. High pressure allows for more sunshine & drier conditions Tuesday & Wednesday. Weak low pressure brings chance for rain Thursday & Friday. High pressure with plenty of sunshine is on tap for this weekend!

Upper level low pressure system gradually shifts east more slowly than expected today. This leaves the Mid-Atlantic states & northeastern US vulnerable for a few scattered rain showers & an isolated thunderstorm this afternoon & evening. Skies will stay mostly cloudy during the day, gradually clearing overnight as high pressure slowly slides east. Temperatures today will stay in the mid 70s then fall to around 60 tonight as our cloud cover clears out.

Some patchy morning fog is expected Tuesday. Otherwise, high pressure will gain control over the Great Lakes region, allowing for much clearer skies during the day Tuesday. With more sunshine on tap during the day, temperatures will reach a few degrees warmer than today. Highs will reach around 80. Forecast will stay dry with clear skies Tuesday night. Temps will fall into the low/mid 50s. Widespread fog will develop into Wednesday morning.

Dry Wednesday with lots of sunshine. Warmer air will be lifting north during the day Wednesday. Highs will be in the mid 80s. Weak low pressure will cross the Great Lakes, dragging a line of showers & storms across the eastern US during the day Thursday. Threat for rain & isolated storms will continue through Friday. However, dynamics with this Thursday/Friday system are weak and unimpressive. We'll keep just chance periodic rain showers.

 High pressure will dry things out & provide more sunshine for the last 'unofficial' weekend of summer, before classes ramp up.

Thursday, August 11, 2011

Cool & dry air maintains control over our area today, bringing autumn-like conditions to the Mountain State. Lots of sunshine and almost no humidity making for a perfect couple of days. Near record low temps are on tap tonight. Warmer air mixes back into our area Friday. We'll stay dry Friday & Saturday, with scattered rain showers and a few thunderstorms likely after midnight Saturday & Sunday.

Our skies will stay mostly clear overnight. Temps fall into the low 50s. With plenty of cool air and very little moisture, lows will fall to near record numbers overnight. Some patchy fog will develop into Friday morning but will burn off quickly with sunrise.

Warmer air will begin to lift north, into our area Friday. Still plenty of sunshine is on tap during the day with just a few high clouds possible. Highs will be in the low 80s. Lows Friday will fall into the upper 50s with just a few clouds overnight.

We'll squeeze more fair weather out of the forecast Saturday. Skies will be partly cloudy with lots of sunshine on tap. Highs will be in the low 80s again. But the forecast will diminish quickly Saturday night. An upper level disturbance will cross the Ohio Valley, just south of the Great Lakes. Dew points will be on the increase Saturdya afternoon, reaching the mid 60s. So more humidity will gradually return to the forecast over the weekend. Scattered rain showers and thunderstorms will develop Saturday evening ahead of the frontal boundary. Any storms that do fire late Saturday & Sunday could still produce heavy downpours in spots. Brief periods of strong gusty winds are also possible as the front pushes through during the day on Sunday.

A few leftover showers cannot be ruled out Sunday night into Monday. But high pressure ridging will return to the forecast to bring dry air and more sunshine late Monday & Tuesday next week. Chance for rain will return Wednesday night.

Friday, August 5, 2011

    Weak high pressure relinquishes control over our region today. Warm air & lots of moisture will lift north into our area later today. Hot and humid forecast continues through the weekend. Good chance for rain & thunder into the first part of next week as well.

    Widespread haze persists this morning. Satellite imagery shows thicker cloud cover already infiltrating the eastern mountains & Eastern Panhandle. Dew points will be on the increase today as that warm air & deeper moisture mixes in. The cloud cover should limit daytime heating. Highs will be in the mid to upper 80s today. But more warm air advecting & higher humidity will put heat indices in the mid to upper 90s, making things more uncomfortable as the day progresses.

    So the forecast will stay muggy with increasing afternoon cloud cover. We're also watching a weakening upper air disturbance that will cross the Ohio Valley, reaching the Appalachians this evening & tonight. We may see some showers and thunderstorms develop this evening, mainly across northern portions of our state as that system sweeps eastward. Any storms that do pop could produce heavy downpours tonight. But that would be welcome-anything to break the heat...

    Expecting things to stay muggy overnight with lows around 70 under mostly cloudy skies.

    For Saturday...cloudy skies will keep the heat from becoming ridiculous. Even without the sunshine, we'll still have plenty of warm air to deal with during the day. Highs will be in the mid 80s, dew points will still be in the low 70s. The thinking is that thunderstorm activity will be limited Saturday due to limited solar radiation during the day. But we'll keep the chance for a good dose of rain Saturday & Saturday night.

    A weak cool front will cross our area Sunday. So we'll keep the chance for scattered rain and thunder Sunday & Sunday night. Highs will be in the mid to upper 80s, lows will fall to around 70. Leftover moisture will linger into Monday. So the forecast will stay partly to mostly cloudy. High pressure will return to dry things out late Monday into Tuesday...More wet weather arrives Wednesday/Thursday.

    In other weather news...Tropical Storm Emily seems to have lost her identity somewhere in the Bahamas. The National Hurricane Center is still anticipating some restrengthening in the next 24-36 hours. Forecasters still expect Emily to take a northwest course, come within a few hundred miles of the Florida coast, then race northeast before dissipating in the middle of the Atlantic Ocean. Emily still posses little threat to the US mainland.

    Geomagnetic storms associated with the Sun's solar winds are expected to reach "strong" level in the next 24 hours. This means that minor disruptions are possible. Intermittent satellite navigation & radio problems may occur. Other minor disruptions would include false alarms being triggered on some electrical power protection systems. In the past, aurora borealis has also been observed as far south as 50 degrees latitude. That means that folks as far south as Oregon, Montana, Illinois etc could potentially see aurora.

Thursday, August 4, 2011

Area Forecast

    Cold front pushed well south of our area last night & into the Tennessee Valley this morning. Plenty of low level moisture still lingering over the mountains provides some morning fog & mostly cloudy skies. Some clearing is expected today as high pressure tries to break up that cloud cover. Haze will linger throughout most of the day. High pressure will gain better control over the Great Lakes region overnight, setting up another foggy night for the Mountain State.

    Cold frontal passage has not done much to relieve the heat and humidity though. With highs in the mid 80s and dew points around 70, our heat index will stay in the mid 90s. We'll stay dry today & tonight under mostly clear skies. Things will stay muggy with lows in the upper 60s overnight.

    Frontal boundary will lift back north as a warm front Friday. We'll keep a dry forecast with above average temps Friday. However, low level moisture will sneak back into our area and hot & humid conditions will persist into the weekend. This will provide ample opportunity for rain showers and a few thunderstorms Friday night through the weekend. Main threat for our area will potential for heavy downpours, mainly Saturday.

    Temps this weekend...Daytime highs will be in the upper 80s. Lows will only fall to the low 70s. Another cold front will cross the Great Lakes Sunday night & Monday. So we'll keep the threat for rain showers & thunderstorms Sunday & Monday. High pressure will build into the region by Tuesday. Another round of wet weather arrives by Wednesday.

   Tropical Storm Emily is forecast to be off the southern Atlantic coast by Monday. Although threats to the Us mainland are limited, Emily will disrupt surf, making for potentially dangerous surf conditions for the first half of next week. Beach-goers will observe 6-8 foot waves this weekend and next week. The storm will then race northeast & dissipate in the middle of the Atlantic Ocean.

Tropical Outlook

    Tropical Storm watches are still in effect for many Caribbean Islands today. Emily has remained fairly stationary over the past 24 hours, meandering 105 miles SSE of Port Au Prince, Haiti. But forecasters expect that Emily will resume her WNW track & cross the southwestern peninsula of Haiti sometime today. Minimum pressure is holding steady at 1005 millibars. Winds are still sustained at 50 MPH...

    Although Emily's interaction with land has hindered further development over the past few days, she has become a major threat to Haiti, Dominican Republic and the Bahamas. An average of 6-12 inches of rainfall forecast with isolated spots of up to 20 inches in the mountainous terrains!! These rains would cause life-threatening flash floods and mud slides. Tropical storm force winds and a storm surge up to 3 feet are also possible in these islands...Emily is expected to graze the Florida coast in the next 72 hours, then race northeast further out in to the Atlantic, dissipating after 96 hours. Emily will prove minimal threat to US mainland.

    In the East Pacific Ocean...Eugene has been downgraded to Cat 3. Eugene will continue on a WNW track at 14 MPH and is not expected to threaten land.

    Meanwhile in the West Pacific Ocean, Super Typhoon Muifa remains fairly stationary about 300 miles off the Chinese coast. This storm is a major threat to surrounding coastlines.

    Elsewhere, tropical cyclone development is not expected in the next 48 hours.

Wednesday, August 3, 2011

Area Forecast

    Our area remains under a slight risk for severe weather today as a cool frontal boundary progresses southeastward today and tonight. High pressure returns for Thursday and Friday. More wet weather is possible late Saturday & Sunday. Then we dry out for Monday.

     Across the north, rain shower and thunderstorm activity has steadily weakened but is expected to refire this afternoon with daytime heating. Breezy conditions along with a few isolated storm cells are expected this afternoon & evening as plenty of low/mid level moisture brings further instability.

    Further south, stronger & more organized showers & storms are ongoing in southwestern WV & eastern KY. Rain showers and storms are expected to regenerate in and around central and southern West Virginia this afternoon & evening. Strong damaging winds, hail and heavy rainfall are possible with any storms that do resurface later today.

    Cool front will pass south of our area this evening & tonight. Lingering cloud cover & low level moisture will limit solar radiation receipts this afternoon. Highs will be in the mid/upper 80s.
High pressure will gradually gain control over the Mid-Atlantic states overnight. Plenty of cloud cover and low level moisture will linger over our area to keep lows in the upper 60s/low 70s tonight. Partly cloudy skies will eventually give way to more sunshine during the day Thursday. Highs will be in the low to mid 80s. Lows Thursday night will be in the mid 60s.

     A few peaks of sunshine are on tap Friday. Highs will be in the upper 80s. More deep moisture will sneak into at least the eastern mountains late in the day Friday. Good chance for rain & thunder is timed for late Saturday into Sunday. Things will gradually clear out to start the next work week.

Click image to enlarge

Atlantic/Caribbean & East Pacific Tropical Update

On the Tropical front...

    Tropical Storm Emily is headed west at 14 MPH, about 145 miles SSE of the Dominican Republic tis morning. Minimum pressure is still only 1006 millibars, winds are 50 MPH. But Emily will still pack a wallop to Hispaniola, Puerto Rico and the Bahamas. Tropical Storm warnings are in effect for those islands and a few others. According to the National Hurricane Center, Emily could dump an average of 4-6 inches of rain and up to 10 inches on those Caribean Islands over the next 24-48. Tropical storm force winds and a 1-2 foot storm surge are also forecast for these area. Emily is expected to turn to the northwest & strenghten over the next 24-48 hours. She could threaten mainland US, including FL, as she moves into the waters of the Atlantic over the next 72 hours or so.
    Elsewhere in the Atlantic, tropical waves and monsoon moisture remain poorly defined between 10 & 20 degrees North...

    In the East Pacific...Hurricane Eugene has been upgraded to a Cat 3 and is headed WNW about 570 miles SSE of the southern tip of Baja. Min pressure is 961 millibars, sustained winds are 115 MPH but Eugene is not expected to threaten land and begin to weaken later today.

    A secondary tropical wave is developing about 500 miles east of Eugene along the southwestern coast of Mexico. According to NHC, conditions are favorable for further development over the next 24-48 hours.

West Pacific Tropical Update

In the West Pacific...Southeast Asia...Super Typhoon Muifa is a Category 5 and is located about 200 miles southeast of Okinawa. Max winds are 140 knots. Minimum pressure is less than 920 millibars. Muifa is a major threat to Okinawa and surrounding islands and will make landfall on the eastern coast of China in the next 72 hours.

Click image to enlarge

Tuesday, August 2, 2011

    We keep rolling with the above average temperatures...Lots of warm tropical air lifts north, into our area today and tonight. Highs are forecast to reach 90 across much of the forecast area. But increasing afternoon clouds on a northwest flow may keep widespread 90s from being realized. Scattered rain showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected to spread south from the Great Lakes, affecting mainly our northern zones this afternoon and evening. Locally heavy rainfall is possible with any storms that do fire across our bow later today. Strong gusty winds are also possible as this disturbance progresses eastward.

    Warm air will continue to mix into the region, keeping things muggy overnight. Lows will stay in the low 70s. Stronger & more widespread storms are expected to fire across our northernmost counties late tonight/early Wednesday morning. Lightning & strong damaging winds with gusts 20 to 30 MPH will be the main threats ahead of a cold front timed to cross to our area  overnight into Wednesday morning.

    Frontal boundary will pass cross our area by Wednesday morning. So a few leftover showers and an isolated storm will still be possible Wednesday morning. Lingering moisture will also keep threat for an isolated late-day sprinkle in the southern portions our our state Wednesday. Otherwise, high pressure will begin to gain control over the region. This will allow for a sun/cloud mix with drier conditions for the rest of Wednesday, Thursday & most of the day Friday. Highs will be in the upper 80s, perhaps 90 for some of the lowland counties. High pressure ridging will give way to more humid air, triggering more showers and thunderstorms late Friday and into the weekend.

Meanwhile in the Caribbean Sea...

Tropical Storm Emily triggers storm warnings for the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic. Rainfall in these locations is expected to be in the area of  4-6 inches with up to 10 inches possible in some areas. Tropical storm force winds and higher sea levels are also expected tonight as Emily progresses WNW at about 14 MPH. Forecasters estimate that Emily will continue on her WNW'rly track, possibly affecting The Bahamas, Florida and the Atlantic Coast through the weekend.

SPC's depiction of our convective threat for today. Best chances for severe weather will remain to our northwest.

Monday, August 1, 2011

    We start August hot with lots of sunshine-no surprises really. Weak disturbances bring threat for isolated thunderstorm activity this afternoon/evening. Clearing overnight with AM fog Tuesday. Partly to mostly cloudy Tuesday. Rain showers & a few storms are possible ahead of a cold front dropping by Tuesday night/Wednesday. Daytime highs will be right around 90, with lows in the mid to upper 60s this week.

    Forecast will stay hot and sunny for most of today under a northwest air flow. Highs will be in the low 90s. Look for increasing afternoon clouds, rain showers and an isolated thunderstorm as a weak disturbance rides into town on that NW flow. Limited moisture may simply produce some breezy conditions this afternoon/evening. Any storm cells that do develop will dissipate with sunset. This will leave generally clear skies overnight with lows falling to around 63. Morning fog will develop again into Tuesday morning.

    A similar pattern will unfold on Tuesday. We'll start dry and sunny. Highs will be a tick or two high than today, in the low 90s. A second weak disturbance will brush mainly western & central West Virginia Tuesday afternoon. We could squeeze a few showers/isolated thunder out of that during the day. Better rain chances arrive Tuesday night into Wednesday. Breezy conditions and possible heavy downpours will accompany that wave of showers & storms ahead of a cold front timed for Tuesday night/Wednesday. Storms will affect mainly our northern zones with a few chance storms making their way into central & southern West Virginia.

    Our forecast for the rest of this week will keep plenty of sunshine and highs in the low 90s. A few hit/miss thunderstorms are possible in the maximum afternoon heating. More widespread cloud coverage, showers and thunderstorms are possible Saturday & Sunday.

    A more active tropical weather forecast is beginning to take shape. Tropical Storm Eugene has developed along the southwestern coast of Mexico, heading WNW at 12 MPH. Maximum sustained winds are 60 MPH but forecasters predict Eugene could become a hurricane Tuesday...In the Atlantic, a cluster of strong rain showers and thunderstorms has developed about 300 miles east of the Windward Islands. Forecasters estimate that this system has a strong possibility, 90% of becoming a tropical storm in the next 24-48 hours. Regardless of the fate of this system, it will bring heavy rain and gusty winds to the Caribbean Islands in the next 12 to 24...Will need to watch this system closely.