Wednesday, August 24, 2011

    Warm front brings more moisture to our area under mostly cloudy skies today. Scattered rain showers and thunderstorms will spread southeast into our area as early as late-afternoon ahead of a cold front timed to cross our area tonight into early Thursday. We'll gradually dry off with more sunshine & slightly cooler temperatures for the end of the work week. Hurricane Irene will become a major threat to the East Coast & Mid Atlantic states over the weekend, then New England to start next week. Our area will merely see peripheral effects, mainly breezy conditions over the weekend.

    For the rest of today...a few peaks of sunshine will break our afternoon cloud cover allowing for warm air mixing & sunshine to put highs in the mid/upper 80s today. Scattered rain showers & thunderstorms will develop this evening ahead of a cold front timed for tonight & Thursday. Breezy conditions and periods of locally heavy rainfall are also possible tonight. With the cloud cover and warm air mixing, we'll keep overnight temperatures in the upper 60s/low 70s overnight.

    The threat for scattered storms will continue for the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic states during the day Thursday. And again, any storms that develop could produce strong gusty winds & heavy rain Thursday. Local rain showers and isolated storms are possible in our mountain counties into mid to late afternoon Thursday. Then that cool frontal boundary will slowly sweep past our area around sunset. Surface high pressure and slightly cooler temperatures in its wake will make for a pleasant end to the workweek. So slightly cooler & drier air with plenty of sunshine is on deck for Friday. Temperatures will top out in the low 80s.

    Our weekend forecast will hinge somewhat on the timing and track of Hurricane Irene. NHC estimates that Irene will continue to strengthen and could become a Category 4 hurricane by week's end. Forecasters predict that Irene will graze Florida's east coast, pass about 70 miles east of Cape Fear & the Outer Banks of NC in the next 76 hours. Mandatory evacuations are in effect for Ocracoke Island and the Outer Banks. Current forecasts also place Irene continuing north, into the Mid-Atlantic and New England states over the weekend & into next week. So Irene is a major threat to the Atlantic coastline from Florida to New York. Hurricane/tropical storm force winds, 10+ inches of rainfall and a dangerous storm surge are also possible.

    According to current forecast models, our area, despite Irene's proximity will see very little in the way of effects. Some high cirrus clouds and breezy conditions are possbile. That leaves a generally sunny and mild forecast with highs in the low to mid 80s this weekend. Further east, steady rains over the next 5 days could trigger high water problems. With still plenty of time & opportunity for the track to change, watch for more updates to come!

Check out the 5 day rainfall forecast! Click to enlarge.