Wednesday, August 3, 2011

Atlantic/Caribbean & East Pacific Tropical Update

On the Tropical front...

    Tropical Storm Emily is headed west at 14 MPH, about 145 miles SSE of the Dominican Republic tis morning. Minimum pressure is still only 1006 millibars, winds are 50 MPH. But Emily will still pack a wallop to Hispaniola, Puerto Rico and the Bahamas. Tropical Storm warnings are in effect for those islands and a few others. According to the National Hurricane Center, Emily could dump an average of 4-6 inches of rain and up to 10 inches on those Caribean Islands over the next 24-48. Tropical storm force winds and a 1-2 foot storm surge are also forecast for these area. Emily is expected to turn to the northwest & strenghten over the next 24-48 hours. She could threaten mainland US, including FL, as she moves into the waters of the Atlantic over the next 72 hours or so.
    Elsewhere in the Atlantic, tropical waves and monsoon moisture remain poorly defined between 10 & 20 degrees North...

    In the East Pacific...Hurricane Eugene has been upgraded to a Cat 3 and is headed WNW about 570 miles SSE of the southern tip of Baja. Min pressure is 961 millibars, sustained winds are 115 MPH but Eugene is not expected to threaten land and begin to weaken later today.

    A secondary tropical wave is developing about 500 miles east of Eugene along the southwestern coast of Mexico. According to NHC, conditions are favorable for further development over the next 24-48 hours.