Friday, September 30, 2011

Strong cold front crosses our area today. Deepening trough continues to spread across the eastern/southeastern US bringing gusty winds & increasing late day cloud cover along with some of the coldest temps so far this season. Lows tonight will fall into the low 40s. Scattered rain showers will ramp up this evening, continuing through much of the day Saturday. As a result, Saturday will be unusually cool for this time of year and a bit breezy with highs only in the low to mid 50s. Rain showers will changeover to snow in places above 3300 feet soon after sunset Saturday. Elsewhere, patchy frost is expected as lows Saturday night fall into the low/mid 30s across our forecast area. Strong high pressure will build in behind the front, allowing for plenty of sunshine, warmer temps & a mainly dry forecast late Sunday through Thursday/Friday next week.

Thursday, September 29, 2011

That low pressure center that has been rotating over the southern Great Lakes for that past week was still only as far east as central Ohio this morning! But that system will finally open up aloft, cross the Ohio Valley & exit to our northeast across PA by evening. This, thanks to another strong trough developing over eastern US backed by the cold Canadian polar front timed to bring significantly colder air into our area Friday into the weekend. Ahead of the front, sufficient daytime heating will trigger some severe weather this afternoon & evening for many of our neighboring forecast areas. However, we're not expecting much in the way of severe weather for the mountain state today...

Remnants of that low pressure system lending to a few light mountain showers today. Otherwise, we actually have another nice day on tap as surface winds gradually shifting from the northwest today! Highs will reach 70 with a few peaks of sunshine in between a few mid & high level clouds. That strong cold front will start to  bring breezy conditions, lower cloud cover, scattered rain showers and much cooler temps to our area with sunset. Any storms that do fire will be capable of producing isolated hail briefly before things settle down after midnight. We'll keep lows tonight in the lower 50s.

Friday...breezy conditions & widespread rain showers will linger throughout much of the day as that deep trough & cold front gain a strong foothold on nearly the entire eastern/southeastern US! Daytime highs will be limited by heavy cloud cover and all that cold air mixing into the region. So look for temps to top out in the mid/upper 50s.

Mostly cloudy skies & scattered rain showers will linger into Saturday afternoon. New rainfall amounts are not expected to exceed one inch over the next three days. Temps will really bottom out Friday night & Saturday night! Lowlands will see temps falling into the low 40s Friday night & mid to upper 30s Saturday night! Expect any lingering precip during this time to change to snow in the higher elevations above 3500 feet.  

Strong high pressure associated with that cool, dense Canadian air will start drying things out from west to east Saturday evening. Temperatures will rebound to a more seasonal feel with highs near 70 again by Monday. High pressure will keep a dry forecast through next week with plenty of sunshine during the day.

Images depict our 3-day rainfall totals & cold air advecting into eastern US Friday night!!

Wednesday, September 28, 2011

We have a sun/cloud mix and temperatures reaching the mid/upper 70s today. Slight risk for severe weather will threaten our easternmost forecast area this afternoon. Max daytime heating & sufficient instability will bring breezy conditions and possibly even a tornado to the Eastern Panhandle, DC/VA/MD corridor. Otherwise, a few mid level clouds & a stray shower or two will graze our area overnight & into Thursday as that Great Lakes low pressure continues to toss plenty of moisture over the Mid Atlantic states. But the reign of the Great Lakes low will soon come to an end as a strong Canadian front sweeps across the eastern US Friday. With it, a well-defined line of showers & much cooler temperatures will cross our area Friday & Friday night. The bottom will really fall out of our temperatures this weekend! Highs will only reach the upper 50s. Nights will see temps in the low 40s/upper 30s. Ideal fog set up will allow dense morning fog this weekend. But lingering moisture will keep threat for a few showers, especially in the mountains into Saturday. Things really dry out Saturday night, Sunday and into next week! More later...

Tuesday, September 27, 2011

Cool frontal boundary exits our area today leaving cooler & generally dry conditions today. Upper level low pressure remains relatively stationary over northern Illinois, keeping abundant cloud cover and occasional rain in the forecast Wednesday & Thursday. The system will finally exit to the northeast early Friday as a stronger cold front invades from Canada. Reinforcing Canadian front will keep good chance for rain showers Friday. Cool, dry air on the backside of the front will bring more fall-like weather for the first few days in October. 

For today & tonight... Drier & more comfortable air mixing in from west to east behind the cool frontal boundary that crossed the mountains last night. Residual low level moisture & rainfall persisting along the eastern slopes slowly drying out as the weakening frontal boundary progresses north & east. A few peaks of sunshine and highs in the low 70s are on tap today. A few light mountain showers are possible this evening & overnight but much of the area will stay dry with deeper moisture pool well to our west. We'll keep variable clouds & patchy fog overnight with temps with lows falling into the low/mid 50s.

Great Lakes low pressure will continue to plague the Midwest & Mid-Atlantic states Wednesday & Thursday. Temperatures will become gradually cooler each day, especially with reinforcing cold front arriving this weekend. Mainly cloudy skies, highs in the low 70s & spotty rain showers are on tap during the day Wednesday. Skies will stay mostly cloudy with scattered rain & lows in the low/mid 50s Wednesday night.

Rain will become more widespread during the day Thursday as that Great Lakes low pressure system finally presses eastward. Skies will stay mostly cloudy & highs will only reach the upper 60s Thursday. Then another better defined line of showers will blow through after midnight into early Friday as that reinforcing cold front swings into our area. A few leftover showers are also possible during the day Friday as low level moisture lingers in the mountains into Friday night.

Remnant low level moisture may trigger a few weak showers Saturday morning. Otherwise the weekend forecast will stay cool and dry as the Canadian front pushes over the mountains & into the Carolinas Saturday. Strong high pressure will allow for plenty of sunshine this weekend. But highs are expected to only reach the upper 50s/low 60s over the weekend. Lows will fall into the low/mid 40s. Saturday night will be the coldest with lows falling to near 40. Cool, dry weather will last through a good part of next week as well.

Monday, September 26, 2011

     Scattered showers & isolated thunder will break out across our area ahead of a cold front crossing the mountains this evening & overnight. Behind the front, slightly cooler temps & lower dew points will allow more comfortable weather & mainly dry weather by Tuesday afternoon. But that pesky upper level low pressure over the southern Great Lakes will slowly progress eastwards to keep occasional rain showers in the forecast Tuesday night through at least midweek. That system will gradually get kicked outta here as we wave goodbye to September. Much cooler & drier air will arrive just in time for the first October weekend.

     Short term...a more or less southerly flow aloft brings lots of warm air into the region today. Plenty of sunshine and warm air mixing puts temps in the low 80s today without breakin a sweat! All that warm moist air ahead of a cold front crossing the Ohio Valley will trigger scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms, from west to east this afternoon & evening. A few storms may be capable of producing strong gusty winds, hail and repeated heavy downpours this evening. Occasional rain showers are expected tonight into Tuesday morning. Localized flash flooding problems are possible, especially for the mountains as up to 2.5 inches of new rainfall are possible given the chance for repeated heavy downpours. Behind the front, slightly cooler air & lower dew points will bring daytime highs Tuesday only a few degrees cooler than today.  

     That Great Lakes low pressure system over northern Illinois will gradually progress eastward into the Ohio Valley over the next few days. This will keep generally cloudy skies & an isolated shower in our forecast through at least Thursday. Our forecast will really dry out and cool air on the backside of that low pressure system will filter in by Friday. A dry, much cooler forecast is on tap for this weekend. Highs will only reach in the low 60s/upper 50s. Lows will fall into the low 40s to kickoff the first weekend in October!

Thursday, September 22, 2011

Last Day of Summer

Low pressure & warm, moist air mass lifts north into our area out of the southern states bringing sun/cloud mix & muggy conditions today. Weakening frontal boundary will trigger fragmented rain showers tonight. Great Lakes low pressure will set up a deep trough across eastern US, keeping unsettled weather in the forecast Friday through the weekend. Southwesterly air flow on the east side of the counterclockwise rotating low will keep above average daytime temps on tap over the weekend. Low pressure will meander into the Northeast by the middle of next week.

For tonight...weakening upper level low pressure & near saturated air mass will prompt a few passing showers, mainly in the mountains. Otherwise we have another muggy night with some fog & lows in the lower 60s under mostly cloudy skies.

Friday...we'll start Friday dry with a few peaks of sunshine during the day. A steady southwesterly air flow will continue to feed warm air into the region putting highs in the low/mid 70s. Great Lakes low pressure will dominate the forecast from Friday evening through Saturday & Sunday. Skies will stay mainly cloudy as bands of moisture provide focus for scattered wrap around rain showers. Periods of locally heavy rainfall may trigger high water problems for our mountain counties and points east this weekend. 

But our weekend weather will not be a total loss. Expect occasional breaks in the action, especially later in the day Saturday when perhaps even a dry slot develops over the mountain state. Am expecting temperatures to stay a few degrees above average through the weekend, especially further east where warmer air has a stronger foothold. Weekend highs are expected to reach the mid 70s with lows falling into the mid/upper 50s. 

The gloomy forecast will linger into the first part of next week as that Great Lakes low pressure finally progresses eastward across the Appalachian Mountains. This will allow for slightly cooler temperatures and scattered showers Monday & Tuesday of next week. Lookin' for new rainfall amounts around an inch with an inch and a quarter possible on the eastern slopes. Then our forecast will dry out by Wednesday of next week. 

Low pressure over the Great Lakes will retrograde over the Northern Plains, tossing abundant clouds & scattered showers over the Ohio Valley & Mid Atlantic states this weekend, exit to the Northeast late Tuesday, leaving up to 1.25 inches of new rain. Click to enlarge!

Wednesday, September 21, 2011

Warm moist air lifting north into our area from the Gulf region today will provide focus for scattered rain showers & isolated thunderstorms this afternoon & evening. Plenty of sunshine reaching the surface along with warm air mixing will contribute to threat for brief hail and strong damaging winds across portions of our forecast area this evening into tonight. Meanwhile, a stronger upper level low pressure system dropping into the Great Lakes will deliver sligthly cooler temps & rainy periods for much of the eastern US including our Appalachians into the end of September 

Tonight...that warm moist airmass lifting north into our area brings abundant clouds, scattered rain showers & isolated thunder this afternoon & evening. Strong gusty winds, periods of heavier rainfall & hail will threaten our area briefly. Scattered showers are expected to continue overnight until the system exits to the northeast during the wee morning hours Thursday. We'll  be left with stubborn low level clouds and patchy dense fog by Thursday morning. Expecting about .25 inches of new rainfall overnight with up to an inch possible in some of the eastern mountains during this time. Cloud cover will keep lows in the mid 60s overnight, with low 60s in the mountains.

Thursday...that upper level low pressure center dipping into the Great Lakes will provide focus for hit/miss rain showers across the Ohio Valley & southern Great Lakes Thursday, Friday, this weekend and into Monday & even Tuesday of next week. Models hint at a 'dry slot' developing over the mountain state Saturday. This scenario would be ideal as it would alleviate flash flooding concerns for our eastern mountains, allowing for any rainfall surplus to recover. Tailgaters for this weekend's matchup against LSU would also benefit from a well-timed dry slot on Saturday. Scattered rain showers are possible again on Sunday into the first part of next week as that system SLOWLY presses eastward. High water probelms are most likely east in the DC/VA area over the weekend.

Temperatures for the rest of this week will hinge on timing & track of the Great Lakes low pressure this weekend. Enough warm air will hang around to keep highs in the mid/upper 70s Thursday. Skies will be mainly cloudy Friday through the end of September. This will keep daytime temps on the cool side with highs in the upper 60s/low 70s. Our nights will be well insulated with lows in the mid 50s.

Tuesday, September 20, 2011

Weakening cold front exits to the east today. Warmer air lifting into our area out of the south will keep mild temperatures & abundant moisture on tap. Weak high pressure building into our area today will keep a generally dry forecast with variable clouds & patchy fog tonight. More moisture will lift north, keeping threat for scattered showers Wednesday & Thursday, especially east. Closed low pressure center will keep unsettled weather in the forecast through the weekend. High water advisories may be needed in the east by  the weekend. System will gradually exit to the east Tuesday of next week. Northwest air flow will allow cooler temps to mix into our area for the rest of next week. Satellite imagery shows lots of cloud cover across the Mid Atlantic states this afternoon as a passing cold front spreads east of our area. Gradual clearing from west to east is expected to continue into this evening & overnight allowing for a generally dry overnight forecast. Patchy valley fog is possible overnight in between broken low level clouds. Lows will into the upper 50s.

Wednesday the upper level low pressure system dropping out of central Canada will slowly push south & east into the Great Lakes area. This will set our area up for a southerly trend to bring copious moisture & mild temps into our area from the Gulf region. We'll see scattered rain showers during the day Wednesday along with wrap around moisture late Wednesday into Thursday. Lows are expected to stay in the low 60s across the area with persistent cloud cover providing good insulation.

This low pressure system will become cutoff from the westerlies later this week, delivering unsettled weather to our area through the rest of this week & into the weekend. The GFS extended forecast depicts the the closed low pressure center getting hung up over the southern Great Lakes Friday through the weekend & gradually lifting north & east towards the beginning of next week. This will keep the chance for hit & miss showers well into the weekend.
Temperature trends will depend a good deal on cloud coverage over the weekend. Overall, temps will stay mild with highs in the low/mid 70s. Lows will fall into the low/mid 50s at night.  

So the weekend does not look like a total washout but we'll need to keep the rain gear handy walking to and from class as we finish off the last days of summer. Tailgaters for this weekend's matchup against LSU may see rainy periods during the day Saturday. Although at the moment, weekend rain chances do not seem to be very impressive. Weak high pressure will try to dry things out towards the middle of next week. Naturally, confidence is low this far out. Am confident in northwest flow bringing slightly cooler temps by the middle of next week. 

5 Day rainfall amounts courtesy of HPC...Again, high water advisories may be needed especially further east. Click to enlarge!

Monday, September 19, 2011

     Weekend high pressure exits to the east. A warm front crossing the Ohio Valley today brings abundant cloud cover & warm, southwesterly air flow today. Cold front will skirt the mountains, bringing scattered showers & isolated thunder tonight through Tuesday. Stronger low pressure to arrive Wednesday/Thursday. Rainfall amounts just over an inch are expected across much of the forecast area during the week...cooler air timed for the first weekend of fall. 

     Heavy cloud cover looms to our west while weakening warm front triggers a few showers across KY & OH. Despite the clouds, highs will peak near 70 thanks to warm air mixing. We'll manage to keep dry through much of the early afternoon. But scattered rain showers are expected to ramp up this evening ahead of a weakening cold front. Isolated thunder is also possible, for mainly our western zones. Lows dip into the upper 50s/low 60s overnight.

     We'll keep generally cloudy skies & scattered rain showers during the day Tuesday. Weakening cool front loose steam & dry out as it spread eastbound, leaving a mainly dry forecast under partly cloudy skies towards evening. Highs will reach the upper 60s. Lows will be in the mid to upper 50s.

     Keep the rain gear handy! Closed upper level low pressure system will cross the Great Lakes area by Wednesday. This will keep the threat for wrap around rain showers and unsettled weather for our area through the second half of the work week. Lots of warm moist air will be lifting into the region ahead of the front. So we'll keep temps on the warm side through this period as well. Then cooler air on the backside of the front will fill into our area this weekend. Model guidance is still mulling over weather rain will affect our weekend forecast. For now will keep things cool & dry for kickoff at Milan stadium against LSU this Saturday night!

Friday, September 16, 2011

Last Weekend of Summer

Warm air returns next week!

Our area will stay on the southern edge of that Canadian high pressure overnight & through the weekend as it progresses eastward across Lake Ontario. A few weak disturbances will provide abundant clouds over the weekend. Some light patchy drizzle is possible especially in the mountains Saturday evening. Otherwise we have a mainly dry weekend forecast with temperatures rebounding into the low to mid 70s during the day. More moisture will bring slight chance for rain late Monday.

Tonight...abundant clouds & cool air lingering in the mountains this afternoon & evening will keep things on the cool side. Forecast will stay cool & mainly dry with a few passing clouds overnight. Lows will be in the mid 40s with dense patchy fog into Saturday morning.

Our area will stay on the southern edge of cool Canadian high pressure over the weekend. A few weak disturbances & shallow moisture may trigger some light drizzle, mainly in the higher elevations & east of our forecast area Saturday afternoon/evening. Spotty showers may crop up in the mountains briefly on Sunday. Otherwise, an easterly flow aloft will set us up for a mainly dry forecast under a sun/cloud mix this weekend.

Temperatures this weekend will depend on cloud coverage/solar radiation reaching the surface. By and large, daytime temperatures will return to normal with highs in the low/mid 70s. Nighttime temps will fall into the low 50s. Warm front will bring even warmer air and slight chance of rain across the Ohio Valley Monday night/Tuesday.

Thursday, September 15, 2011

     Upper level low pressure center sliding east from the Great Lakes into New England today. The well defined frontal boundary continues to spread south & east across the Mid Atlantic states this afternoon. Behind the front we have dry & much cooler air already building into our western slopes. Cold air mixing into our area under a northwesterly upper air flow will keep things breezy and cool as a few mountain rain showers linger into the afternoon. Canadian high pressure will provide mostly clear skies overnight as temperatures fall into the low 40s/upper 30s in the mountains. This will set up ideal conditions for dense valley fog to build into Friday morning.

     A few passing showers may brush extreme southern West Virginia during the day Friday. Otherwise that Canadian high pressure will keep a good hold over the Great Lakes and Mid Atlantic states through the weekend. This will keep the forecast for the mountain state dry and mainly sunny Saturday & Sunday. Weekend temperatures will gradually return to normal with daytime highs reaching the low to mid 70s. At night temperatures will fall into the mid 40s this weekend. Then the next frontal boundary will bring another chance for rain by Tuesday next week.

Wednesday, September 14, 2011

    You're lookin' at the surface map for Thursday night, courteys of HPC

    First & weaker of two cold frontal boundaries will dip southeastward into the Appalachians today. Ahead of the front scattered rain showers & isolated thunder may develop across northern West Virginia, PA this afternoon. A stronger reinforcing cold front will push through later tonight into Thursday. Expect better rain coverage Thursday morning and a brisk Thursday night. Massive high pressure will provide cool dry weather late Thursday & Friday. We have a nice weekend on tap thanks to that 1028 high pressure!

    Today & tonight...warm air still lingering in the mountain state this afternoon. Temps will mange a respectable 80. Mostly clear skies giving way to increasing cloud coverage across Ohio & northern West Virginia this afternoon. Regional radar depicts isolated thunder cell activity crossing eastern Ohio & brushing the northern West Virginia panhandle. A few scattered rain showers may break out across our northern bow this afternoon/early evening. Initial frontal boundary will have crossed the mountains by 8 o'clock tonight. However, our evening rain chances seem rather meager until that second frontal boundary provides deeper moisture & better dynamics late tonight into early Thursday.

    So expect mostly cloudy skies, scattered rain showers, isolated thunder & lows in the upper 50s tonight.

    Thursday will be noticeably cooler with rain showers tapering off to light drizzle by mid-morning. Rainfall amounts for our area & across the east will less than half an inch. A large area high pressure behind the front will usher in cool, dry over the Great Lakes & Mid-Atlantic states Thursday. Clearing skies along with cold air mixing into our area will put overnight lows Thursday night in the low 40s. Higher elevations could easily see lows in the upper 30s if skies clear well enough.

    That large 1028 high pressure will keep mainly sunny skies, mild temps & dry forecast for Friday, Saturday & Sunday, especially for northern West Virginia. Warmer air will gradually rebound, into southern West Virginia first. Highs will eventually reach the low to mid 70s as that high pressure center slides eastward. The forecast for Monday looks good with temperatures back to normal. Next rainmaker will arrive Tuesday/Wednesday.

Tuesday, September 13, 2011

     We're allowed another sunny summer day with highs reaching the low 80s this afternoon. Weak high pressure will give way to a series of cold fronts that will plunge south out of Canada. The first system will begin with cooler temps and scattered rain showers tonight through early Wednesday. A second cold front will usher in another cool blast and better chances for rain showers and possibly a rumble of thunder Thursday. We'll be grabbing for the hoodies & fleece by the end of the week as overnight lows fall into the low 40s. Broad high pressure will keep cool & dry conditions for weekend!

     For today & tonight...we start with lots of sunshine today. But clouds are on the increase as that cold frontal boundary edges closer to our area. For now, southwest winds bring in warmer air ahead of the front. things get downright hot today. But rain showers and cooler temps are expected to spread east into our area with frontal passage. Look for breezy conditions, scattered rain and lows near 60 tonight.

     Wednesday the second cold frontal boundary will sweep eastward across the Great Lakes, quick on the heels of the first one. Deeper moisture & cold air along with this system will bring a fall feel & better chance for rain Wednesday night & Thursday. My recommendation: wear pants! Daytime highs will be limited due to cloud cover and rain. Expect highs in the low to mid 60s & lows falling into the mid 40s. A few mountain counties could easily see lows in the upper 30s before the end of the work week.

     A large area of high pressure will build over the breadbasket, stretching into the Mid Atlantic states for this weekend. This will keep dry & mild conditions into the first half of next week. Any tailgaters this weekend will find opportunity to apply sunscreen by late-morning/afternoon. Weekend highs will rebound back to normal but nights will lean towards upper 40s/low 50s.

Monday, September 12, 2011

Upper level trough exits east today. Mostly clear skies are expected tonight with lows falling to near 60. It'll be another foggy start Tuesday morning. Otherwise, high pressure will bring mostly sunny & warm conditions with highs near 80 Tuesday. A well-defined cold front (pictured) will bring increasing cloud cover, periods of rain with scattered thunderstorms for the second half of the work week. Northwest flow will allows daytime temps only in the low to mid 60s while nighttime temps will fall into the mid to upper 40s. High pressure will rebuild over our region to keep sunshine & mild temperatures in the weekend forecast.

Friday, September 9, 2011

     Low pressure from Lee still retrograding west into the Mississippi & Missouri River Valleys Friday & Saturday. Record-breaking flooding is still ongoing in PA, NY and parts of the northeast. Fragmented showers & storms are possible for our area this afternoon. Any storms that do fire will lose their steam after dark leaving generally calm conditions overnight. We'll keep generally cloudy skies with a few peaks of sunshine this weekend. Disorganized showers & isolated storms are expected, especially for our northern mountains this weekend. Weekend temps will peak in the upper 70s/low 80s. Overnight lows will fall into the upper 50s with low 50s in the higher elevations. I think if we all do a rain dance then maybe that low pressure center will get caught in the westerlies & exit to the east sometime Monday. We'll squeeze out a few dry days with more sunshine for the first half of next week. Then a well defined cold front will dip south from Canada to bring rain & thunder along with significantly cooler temps for Wednesday night/Thursday.

     For tonight...our old friend Lee is still dancing around the Midwest & Mid-Atlantic states, providing abundant cloud cover along with scattered rain showers & isolated thunderstorms this evening. Main threat for thunder will be focused on our northern mountains with any storms dying off after dark. Broken cloud cover is expected after midnight. I'm betting on calm winds and moist soils combining again to make for pretty dense fog in places for game day Saturday morning. So allow for extra time getting to Mylan Puskar Stadium Saturday morning.

     Our game day forecast looks similar to today's. We'll see a sun/cloud mix for much of the day. Increasing clouds and afternoon showers & an isolated thunderstorm are expected as the day progresses. Highs will be in the upper 70s with temps leaning closer to 80 in the eastern panhandle.

     Low pressure from Lee WILL eventually open up aloft, cross back over our mountains and exit to the east later this weekend. This will keep the threat for scattered rain showers into Sunday, especially Sunday afternoon & evening. Low temperatures this weekend will dip into the upper 50s with low 50s likely in the mountains. Daytime highs will stay on the warm side over the weekend. Expect upper 70s & low 80s in the east.

     For next week...clearing skies, a dry forecast & more sunshine is expected Monday and Tuesday. Temperatures will be a few ticks higher than previous days with more sunshine on the forecast. But cooler & more rainy weather is on tap for Wednesday night/Thursday. click this link to see just how far that arctic front dips south into continental US!  If this doesn't put you in the mood for football by next weekend, nothin' will!

Thursday, September 8, 2011

     Scraps from the once Tropical Storm Lee still hung up over the Ohio Valley today. The wedge-shaped low pressure center depicted here is in essence trapped overhead by high pressure to the NW and the arctic front & associated trough pushing south into SE'rn Canada. The system will continue to provide abundant clouds, cooler temps and rainy periods across the Ohio Valley & Mid Atlantic states today well into the weekend. Meanwhile, a stationary front along the eastern seaboard is brings unsettled weather to eastern PA, NJ and parts of the northeast. Major flooding is ongoing for these locations and an additional 3+ inches of rain is forecast or the next 48 hours...Katia is now a sidenote, bringing only rip currents & higher than usual surf to our east coast. But at least one additional tropical threat (named Maria) gathers steam as we turn our calendars to peak hurricane season.

     Today in the mountain state...we'll have a sun/cloud mix as a well defined dry slot (visible on radar) builds into our area. All-in-all, not a bad day on tap considering the weather that our neighbors to the north are dealing with. Highs will reach the mid to upper 70s, depending on just how much sun shines during the day. But a few afternoon & evening showers & storms are possible, especially in our northern mountains.

     Tonight...spotty shower and thunderstorm activity will linger, especially in the mountains. Lows will fall into the low 60s. The combination of broken low level cloud cover, wet soils and light winds will allow for patchy dense fog to develop into Friday morning.

     Friday, upper level low pressure will waiver west into the lower Ohio Valley/Mississippi River Valley, keeping isolated thunder in our forecast Friday afternoon & into the weekend. Highs will be in the upper 70s/low 80s.

     Our weekend weather is not a total loss. We'll have a sun/cloud mix with a majority of the cloud coverage leaning towards the northwestern portions of our state-remnants from Lee. Low pressure associated with Lee will eventually open up aloft, weaken further and meander into the northeast by next week. The threat for isolated showers and storms will continue Saturday and Sunday. Highs will peak near 80. Lows will fall to near 60. But some places in higher elevations could very well see mid 50s overnight this weekend.

     Next week...Monday's forecast looks reasonable. Highs will reach the low 80s under partly cloudy skies. But another frontal boundary will bring a dash of rain and cooler weather for Tuesday and Wednesday next week.

Wednesday, September 7, 2011

     Blue skies appear today as a few peaks of sunshine manage to punch holes in some of cloud cover over the Mountain State. Remnants of Lee gradually dissipating over the Ohio Valley. Water levels in local creeks and streams steadily receding. Flash flood warnings for West Virginia have expired with the exception of the Eastern Panhandle, where the threat for showers & storms over DC/VA lingers into Thursday. Meanwhile, upper level low pressure will interact with leftovers from Lee to keep residual bands of rain & thunder in the forecast now through the weekend. Temperatures won't change very much with highs reaching the upper 70s/low 80s. Overnight lows will fall to near 60.

     For today...leftover low pressure from Lee will actually waiver west, into the Ohio Valley. Our area will stay dry for much of the day today as a 'dry slot' develops over much of the Mid-Atlantic states. But the weakening system will continue to interact a deep upper level trough to produce broken cloud cover and spotty showers. Partly sunny skies will help put highs near 80 today. By early evening, a few pop up thunderstorms may develop across our area. Again, flash flooding concerns have faded but any locally heavy downpours that do crop up could have a major impact on areas that have been dumped on.

     Overnight...skies will be partly/mostly cloudy. We'll keep a chance for rain showers and an isolated storm, especially in the mountains. Otherwise, calm conditions will allow patchy fog to develop into early Thursday. Lows fall to near 60.

     For the rest of this week...Thursday, low pressure from Lee hung up west of the Appalachians will keep the threat for spotty showers and thunderstorms, especially further east. The slowly weakening system will gradually be pulled apart, producing less & less severe weather threat by the weekend. However, the unsettled forecast will linger into the weekend as another upper level disturbance provides the chance for afternoon & evening thunder Saturday & Sunday. Temperatures through the weekend will range from upper 50s/low 60s to near 80 each day.

Tuesday, September 6, 2011

    ***Our 2-day rainfall forecast courtesy of the Hydrometeorlogical Prediction Center depicts much of the heaviest rainfall occurring just to our north, in central PA. We're lookin' at 4-5 inches over the next 48 hours. Don't forget to stay on top of all the current weather watches/warnings by clicking on the National Weather Service logo to on the right-hand side of this page. You can also follow rising water levels using the links on the right-hand side of the page!****

Remnants of Tropical Storm Lee have moved north through the Mississippi & Tennessee Valleys. The system has now gotten hung up in our Appalachian Mountains thanks to blocking high pressure to our north. It is expected to remain relatively stationary over the next 36 hours, while continued rotation will steadily toss copious amounts of moisture over the Mid Atlantic & Northeast states. Flash flood watches are in effect for West Virginia and several neighboring states. Residents and travelers should pay close attention to rising water in and around streams & creeks over the coming days. Rising waters may also affect rivers by midweek as this prolonged event is expected to bring 5+ additional inches of rain before week's end. An upgrade to flood/flash flood warning may be warranted, especially for areas that have already received 3+ inches of rain since Friday.

    For the rest of today...we finally get some cooler air mixing into the mountain state but a soggy forecast puts a damper on our fall fun. We've managed to escape excessive rainfall so far. But rain has been falling steadily enough to keep flash flood watches in place. Still, it wouldn't take much heavy rainfall to trigger flash flooding in areas that were already dumped on over the long weekend. Isolated threat for severe weather is expected stay to our south, in the Carolinas & extreme western Virginia. Strong thunderstorms could produce damaging winds and an isolated tornado this afternoon and evening. Anyone with interests from the Carolinas to Roanoke should stay tuned to local TV/radio for severe weather updates.

    Temperatures are expected to remain fairly steady today and tonight. Highs are only expected to reach the mid 60s today. Cloud cover will keep temps in the low to mid 60s tonight. Still expecting moderate rainfall into the overnight. We'll see breezy conditions, especially in our mountain counties tonight as well.

    For Wednesday...Remnants of Lee will slowly dissipate, getting caught up in the westerlies and gradually opening up/spreading into the Northeast. We can expect a few peaks of sunshine during the day Wednesday. If this forecast is realized that little bit of solar radiation would make a world of difference during the day Wednesday. If enough sunshine reaches the surface, we could see scattered pop up thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon/evening. Otherwise, we'll see rain shower activity becoming more and more disorganized late Wednesday into Thursday.

    Warmer temperatures are expected for the second half of the work week. Again, any sunshine that manages to reach the surface will make a big difference in our temperature forecast. Expecting highs in the upper 70s Wednesday. Then highs will reach the low 80s both Thursday and Friday.

    Our weekend forecast will stay on the soggy side, even into the first part of next week. Katia has been upgraded to a category 3 but poses little immediate threat to US mainland. The storm is still about 400 miles south of Bermuda and is expected to take a turn to the northeast over the next 48 hours.

Friday, September 2, 2011

     5-Day rainfall forecast for US leaves water everywhere!

     High pressure keeps our forecast mainly dry but a little too hot & humid for our liking. A heat advisory is in effect for western & central West Virginia until 7 PM. Isolated afternoon/evening thunderstorms may spread east across our area today. Then it'll be another warm & muggy night with lows near 70. More excessive heat warnings are likely Saturday with heat indices near 100! Afternoon thunderstorms are possible again Saturday. Cold front will bring scattered rain showers & storms Sunday into Monday. But cooler air will bring weather more reminiscent of an autumn next week.

     For the rest of today...that heat advisory stretches from eastern Kansas, north to Michigan and into central West Virginia. High pressure makes for mainly clear, sunny skies this afternoon. Highs are expected to crest above 90. All that hot & humid air may trigger a few strong thunderstorms this afternoon & evening. Any storms that pop up will be capable of producing strong damaging winds, heavy downpours and breif hail. Things will calm down with sunset. But another warm muggy night is on tap tonight. Lows fall to around 70 overnight.

     Widespread heat warnings are likely during the day Saturday. Folks that have made outdoor plans Saturday should use extreme caution, be aware of the symptoms of heat related illnesses, take breaks and stay hydrated. Heat indices in the lowlands may peak above 100 Saturday. We'll see a sun/cloud mix during the day, then increasing afternoon & evening clouds. All that near-saturated hot air could trigger a few late day thunderstorms. Saturday night still be rather muggy.

     We'll need to keep the rain gear for Sunday. A cold front will bring more potent rain showers & thunderstorms Sunday & Monday. High water problems may arise by Monday. Folks near poorly drained areas, creeks & streams will need to pay close attention to rising water levels. Cooler air will mix into our region for the first part of next week. But the forecast next week looks pretty soggy. I'll keep one eye on Tropical Depression #13, near N'Orleans, LA...and the other eye will watch Katia. This storm could threaten those areas that were hardest hit by Irene. Rainfall from these two storms could reek havoc for the eastern US next week.

Thursday, September 1, 2011

***Sept 3-Sept 14***National Weather Service Hazard Assessment

     Upper disturbances bringing periods of rain & storms with occasional heavy downpours across the Ohio Valley & Mid Atlantic states. Tonight's forecast is warm, muggy & mostly cloudy with chance for scattered thunder. Friday will be mostly sunny, hot & humid with scattered afternoon rain showers & storms. Summer-like forecast will bring daytime heat indices to near triple digits. Our nights will be on the warm side too. Instability & chance for severe weather outbreaks with potential for heavy downpours will linger through our Labor Day weekend. Another round of scattered storms arrives Sunday as a cold front gets hung up over our area through early Monday. Then much cooler air will filter in by next week.

     For the rest of today...we have afternoon sunshine & a lull in the thunderstorm activity. A few remnant storm cells now firing near the southern Great Lakes may threaten to the north. Meanwhile, high pressure allows for plenty of warm, moist air to lift north and east into our area this afternoon.

     Tonight will be mostly cloudy with chance of scattered storms. Things will be muggy and warm with lows in the upper 60s.

     Friday will be partly cloudy, hot & humid with highs in the low 90s. Scattered thunderstorms may pop up in the afternoon. Any storms that do fire during the day could produce heavy rains& strong damaging winds. This may result in potential for high water problems in areas that are already saturated from recent rains.

     Hazy hot and humid forecast continues Saturday. Highs will be near 92. Afternoon/evening storms are still possible. But we'll still see plenty of sunshine during the day. Folks near poor drainage areas will need to watch for high water this weekend as slow-moving storms may be dumpers. A strong cold front will bring another round of widespread showers & storms after midnight Saturday, better part of the day Sunday and into Monday morning. Cooler, drier air with more sunshine will round out the rest of next week as meteorological fall settles into the Appalachians.

     Folks in the northeast would do well to not let their guard down next week. Hurricane Katia may still threaten the Atlantic coast by the end of next week. But she's taking her sweet time in the middle of the Atlantic.

Our 850 millibar map confirms...summer ain't over yet! All that warm Gulf air lifting north & east into the region. Click to enlarge!