Tuesday, September 20, 2011

Weakening cold front exits to the east today. http://aviationweather.gov/adds/progs/nav.php?current=0 Warmer air lifting into our area out of the south will keep mild temperatures & abundant moisture on tap. Weak high pressure building into our area today will keep a generally dry forecast with variable clouds & patchy fog tonight. More moisture will lift north, keeping threat for scattered showers Wednesday & Thursday, especially east. Closed low pressure center will keep unsettled weather in the forecast through the weekend. High water advisories may be needed in the east by  the weekend. System will gradually exit to the east Tuesday of next week. Northwest air flow will allow cooler temps to mix into our area for the rest of next week.

http://aviationweather.gov/adds/satellite/displaySat.php?region=DTW&isingle=single&itype=vis Satellite imagery shows lots of cloud cover across the Mid Atlantic states this afternoon as a passing cold front spreads east of our area. Gradual clearing from west to east is expected to continue into this evening & overnight allowing for a generally dry overnight forecast. Patchy valley fog is possible overnight in between broken low level clouds. Lows will into the upper 50s.

Wednesday the upper level low pressure system dropping out of central Canada will slowly push south & east into the Great Lakes area. This will set our area up for a southerly trend to bring copious moisture & mild temps into our area from the Gulf region. We'll see scattered rain showers during the day Wednesday along with wrap around moisture late Wednesday into Thursday. Lows are expected to stay in the low 60s across the area with persistent cloud cover providing good insulation.

This low pressure system will become cutoff from the westerlies later this week, delivering unsettled weather to our area through the rest of this week & into the weekend.  http://weather.unisys.com/gfsx/gfsx.php?inv=0&plot=500&region=us&t=l The GFS extended forecast depicts the the closed low pressure center getting hung up over the southern Great Lakes Friday through the weekend & gradually lifting north & east towards the beginning of next week. This will keep the chance for hit & miss showers well into the weekend.
Temperature trends will depend a good deal on cloud coverage over the weekend. Overall, temps will stay mild with highs in the low/mid 70s. Lows will fall into the low/mid 50s at night.  

So the weekend does not look like a total washout but we'll need to keep the rain gear handy walking to and from class as we finish off the last days of summer. Tailgaters for this weekend's matchup against LSU may see rainy periods during the day Saturday. Although at the moment, weekend rain chances do not seem to be very impressive. Weak high pressure will try to dry things out towards the middle of next week. Naturally, confidence is low this far out. Am confident in northwest flow bringing slightly cooler temps by the middle of next week. 

5 Day rainfall amounts courtesy of HPC...Again, high water advisories may be needed especially further east. Click to enlarge!