Wednesday, September 21, 2011

Warm moist air lifting north into our area from the Gulf region today will provide focus for scattered rain showers & isolated thunderstorms this afternoon & evening. Plenty of sunshine reaching the surface along with warm air mixing will contribute to threat for brief hail and strong damaging winds across portions of our forecast area this evening into tonight. Meanwhile, a stronger upper level low pressure system dropping into the Great Lakes will deliver sligthly cooler temps & rainy periods for much of the eastern US including our Appalachians into the end of September 

Tonight...that warm moist airmass lifting north into our area brings abundant clouds, scattered rain showers & isolated thunder this afternoon & evening. Strong gusty winds, periods of heavier rainfall & hail will threaten our area briefly. Scattered showers are expected to continue overnight until the system exits to the northeast during the wee morning hours Thursday. We'll  be left with stubborn low level clouds and patchy dense fog by Thursday morning. Expecting about .25 inches of new rainfall overnight with up to an inch possible in some of the eastern mountains during this time. Cloud cover will keep lows in the mid 60s overnight, with low 60s in the mountains.

Thursday...that upper level low pressure center dipping into the Great Lakes http://weather.unisys.com/gfsx/gfsx.php?inv=0&plot=500&region=us&t=l will provide focus for hit/miss rain showers across the Ohio Valley & southern Great Lakes Thursday, Friday, this weekend and into Monday & even Tuesday of next week. Models hint at a 'dry slot' developing over the mountain state Saturday. This scenario would be ideal as it would alleviate flash flooding concerns for our eastern mountains, allowing for any rainfall surplus to recover. Tailgaters for this weekend's matchup against LSU would also benefit from a well-timed dry slot on Saturday. Scattered rain showers are possible again on Sunday into the first part of next week as that system SLOWLY presses eastward. High water probelms are most likely east in the DC/VA area over the weekend.

Temperatures for the rest of this week will hinge on timing & track of the Great Lakes low pressure this weekend. Enough warm air will hang around to keep highs in the mid/upper 70s Thursday. Skies will be mainly cloudy Friday through the end of September. This will keep daytime temps on the cool side with highs in the upper 60s/low 70s. Our nights will be well insulated with lows in the mid 50s. http://weather.unisys.com/gfsx/gfsx.php?inv=0&plot=850&region=us&t=l