Monday, December 5, 2011

Rain showers continue spreading eastward today as that cold frontal boundary starts knocking on our doorstep. NWS has issued a Flood Watch from norther Mississippi to north Ohio. Our area is under a Hazardous Weather Outlook for possible flooding issues. This may be upgraded to Flood Watch/Warning later tonight or Tuesday as that system presses eastward. We'll keep mild temperatures today with highs in the upper 50s. But as that cold front crosses our area during the day Tuesday, we'll see a steady decline in temperatures with lows falling into the upper 20s each night. After Tuesday, highs will barely make it into the mid 40s.  

But the precip will remain in the form of rain until sometime Wednesday night/early Thursday. At this time, we'll see a changeover to mainly snow. Although some mixed precip is a brief possibility Thursday, especially for eastern portions of our state, in the lee of the mountains. In any case, snowfall accumulations do not look impressive. Moisture associated with this system will be departing as that cold air really sinks in. So we're still lookin' at trace amounts of snow by Thursday.

High pressure will move build into our area to dry things out during the day on Thursday. But the cold air will stick around. By the weekend, a reinforcing blast of cold air will knock the bottom out of the temperatures with highs struggling to reach above freezing. However, we still do not have any long-lived cold air masses or impressive snowfall forecasts at the moment.

Have a great week!


You can track the foward progress of those rain showers here... http://weather.unisys.com/radar/rad_us_loop.gif

Today's image shows the latest hazardous weather/warning areas. Altough we're still in the clear, this may change. The easternmost portion of that Flood Watch is that green swath over there in Ohio. Remember, you can track local warnings by clicking on the NWS (National Weather Service) icon on the right hand side of this page!


Saturday, December 3, 2011


We're allowed plenty of sunshine with pleasant temperatures as high pressure glides over the eastern US this weekend. Our next cold front (already dropping heavy rain & mixed precip across the Midwest http://weather.unisys.com/radar/rad_us_loop.gif) will move across the Mid Atlantic states to bring more rain Monday into Wednesday. Some heavy rain is forecast to bring possible minor flooding problems to our area Tuesday & Wednesday. Cold air will skirt the area to bring a changeover to snow Wednesday & Thursday morning. We'll begin to dry out Thursday but cold air will keep things on the cool side to round out the work week. 
 
Today's image, courtesy of Unysis Weather depicts 850 millibar temperatures & warm air advection into our region this weekend!

Friday, December 2, 2011

High pressure keeps a strong foothold over the eastern US today. So we can keep the sunshine & dry conditions into the weekend. Clear nighttime skies allow temps to fall into the 20s and even teens in the mountains last night & tonight. Our weekend forecast will be a bit warmer. Saturday will be mostly sunny with highs in the mid 50s. Sunday, we'll be in the warm sector of a developing cold front timed for the beginning of next week. So temps will be a bit warmer Sunday with highs possibly reaching 60. But clouds will be on the increase, especially later in the day. We'll likely see some light rain showers by Sunday evening & overnight.

That cold front & low pressure trough will keep our forecast on the soggy side Monday & Tuesday. NWS has already issued a hazardous weather outlook for Ohio and Kentucky for minor flooding into next week. NWS may need to hoist a warning flag for our area as well. As much as 2-3 inches of new rain could fall over our forecast area. Up to 6 inches of rain are possible in the Tennessee & Mississippi Valleys!

By Tuesday night we'll see a changeover from rain to snow as that cold front crosses the mountains. Although it's still rather early, it looks like snow will be short lived and will not get you out of school. Perhaps if you're lucky you may get a two-hour delay Wednesday. In any case, high pressure will return to dry things out late in the day Wednesday...

Have a nice weekend!

Wednesday, November 30, 2011

Leftover snow flurries wrapping up across the lowlands but persisting into the afternoon along our mountain counties today. Snow is not sticking at all except for in some of the higher terrain, where up to an inch has fallen. Low pressure continues to exit to our northeast as high pressure begins building from the Mississippi Valley. This will provide gradually clearing skies later today. By tonight, things will be clear, calm & very cold with lows falling into the mid 20s across out forecast area. Overall, our weather will begin to perk up as we kick November to the curb.

Forecast will stay dry into the weekend, but the cool air will linger for a bit...After a chilly start, Thursday will mainly sunny with highs only reaching the upper 40s. A few more chilly nights are on tap as well. Lows will fall into the low 30s into the weekend. But daytime highs will top out in the low & mid 50s Friday & Saturday.

Sunday will be warmer with highs in the low to mid 60s. We can also expect increasing clouds ahead of the next weather system. Rain returns in time to start the work week. We'll be talking about the next snowfall by the middle of next week.

Sunday, November 20, 2011

Warm today with hit/miss rain showers lifting into our area from the southwest this afternoon. More widespread showers likely late today into tonight. Cold front will cross the Ohio Valley today and become stationary over the Appalachians to provide chance for periodic rain showers through the first half of next week. High pressure will dry things out in time for Thanksgiving Day & Black Friday.

Sunday...plenty of warm, moist air lifting into our area brings temperatures into the 60s this afternoon. But satellite imagery already showing low level clouds beginning to spread into the mountain state. A few sporadic rain showers will race across the forecast area into this afternoon. Southwest winds remain 5-10 MPH. Then more widespread showers will develop this evening & overnight. Mainly cloudy skies will keep temps modest tonight with lows holding in the mid/upper 40s.

Monday...leftover rain showers will be wrapping up in the early morning hours. But low level moisture will keep mainly cloudy skies on the horizon. As a result, daytime temps will only manage mid 50s before another shot of rain invades our area late Monday & Monday night. 

Tuesday and Wednesday will stay on the soggy side under mainly cloudy skies. Temps will stay well above freezing to keep precip in liquid form at least until overnight Wednesday/Thursday. Most of our forecast can expect to see 2 inches of new rain fall now through Wednesday...

This frontal system is expected to clear out of our area sometime Wednesday as high pressure and a quick blast of cold, dry air sweeps across our bow. Expect strong gusty winds during the day Wednesday & Wednesday night as these frontal boundaries battle for stability. By Wednesday night, temps will fall into the low 30s in the lowlands while our mountain counties see lows fall into the mid 20s.

Snow does not appear to be much of a threat this week. Although Wednesday night will be cold enough for snow, looks like very dry air will move in in time for Thanksgiving Day & Friday. Also, temps will rebound nicely during the day Thursday and will stay mild into next weekend.

Stay on top of the latest regional radar @ http://weather.unisys.com/radar/rcm_rad.php?image=rad&inv=0&t=cur&region=at

Thursday, November 17, 2011

Colder air settles in across our area today as winds turn from the northwest. High pressure builds in on the backside of that departing low pressure system. We finally dry out after much of our forecast area picked up nearly two inches of new rainfall this week. A few light snow flurries falling along our highest ridgetops today. Otherwise, that high pressure will keep our forecast dry into at least the first half of the weekend.

A few peaks a sunshine are welcome across the mountain state today. Cold, dry air providing clear skies tonight will do little to insulate the surface. As a result, we'll see a hard freeze as temps will fall into the mid 20s. Lows in the teens are possible in our mountain counties.

Friday & Saturday will stay dry with slowly moderating temps. Highs only reach the mid 40s Friday. Then we'll see another chilly night with lows falling to just below freezing. Saturday, warmer with highs in the upper 50s.

Sunday, warmer still as more moisture & warmer air lifts north from the Gulf region. This will trigger a few fragmented showers during the day on Sunday. More widespread rain is on tap for Sunday night/Monday. In fact that next system will keep our forecast soggy into Wednesday of next week. We'll dry out in time for Thanksgiving but cooler air will sag south an perhaps bring a few snow flurries for the busiest travel day of the year. Let's wait and see...

This photo was taken by the author at Cooper's Rock State Park.

Monday, November 14, 2011

Copious moisture & low pressure invading the Mid Atlantic states on a strong southerly air flow through the first half the this week.This results in above average temps coupled with gusty winds, widespread showers & isolated thunderstorms today through Wednesday. Cold front timed to cross our area early Tuesday will keep an unsettled forecast & cooler temps Tuesday/Wednesday. Much colder air will mix in to bring a chilly end to the work week. High pressure will return to round out a mild weekend. 

Today & tonight...Strong southerly air flow ahead of a cold front brings highs into the 70s today. A few impulses crossing the southern Great Lakes just north of our forecast area producing scattered shower activity this morning. Otherwise, much of the area will stay dry until later today. Main threat for thunder and possible tornado development runs from southern Illinois through much of Indiana & Ohio today. Folks near our westernmost border along the Ohio River remain on the eastern fringe of isolated severe threat this afternoon & overnight. Further east, we'll see a sun/cloud mix, breezy conditions this afternoon. Increasing clouds, widespread showers & isolated thunder are possible this evening. Some rain could be heavy into the overnight. Breezy tonight with lows in the mid 50s.

Cold front crossing our area Tuesday will keep scattered showers across our forecast area well into Wednesday. Flooding concerns will depend on the speed & track of any developing disturbances. Most of our forecast area could easily pick up an inch and a half of new rain through Wednesday. We may see NWS raise some warning flags for water concerns by midweek. 

We'll contend with dropping temperatures during this period as well. Highs Tuesday are only expected to reach the low 60s. Lows stay in the upper 40s/low 50s Tuesday night. Cold air on the backside of this cold front will bring about big changes in the forecast by Wednesday night. Lows fall to right around freezing by then.

Breezy & chilly conditions for Thursday & Friday. Winds turn from out of the northwest to bring temps into the 20s by Thursday night. So a few snowflakes by Friday morning are certainly not out of the question. Will watch for possible mixed precip & report on these changes later, as new data becomes available. Have a nice week & thanks for reading!

Today's image, courtesy of Unysis Weather depicts winds at 850 millibars lifting plenty of warm air into our area today. Check regional radar here  http://weather.unisys.com/radar/rcm_rad.php?image=rad&inv=0&t=l&region=at

Monday, November 7, 2011

High pressure at the surface & southerly air flow regime make for a wonderful start to the week. Warm air mixing in along with plenty of sunshine bring daytime temps into the upper 60s today & low 70s Tuesday. Nights will stay on the chilly side with lows in the upper 30s in the lowlands. Deep trough will progress out of the plains & across the Great Lakes by mid week. This will bring mainly clouds skies, breezy conditions, cooler temps and scattered rain showers Wednesday night/Thursday. Friday, high pressure will return to bring more nice weather to our area for the weekend. So have a nice week & thanks for reading!

Today's image courtesy of Unysis Weather shows all that warm air lifting north Monday, Tuesday & Wednesday.

Friday, November 4, 2011

Weakening low pressure bows out this morning as high pressure & dry air continue to press southward. We're left with clearing skies and mild temps for the rest of this afternoon. We'll keep a dry forecast with chilly nights & mild afternoons through at least the middle of next week.

For tonight...We have a chilly night on tap tonight with temps falling into the upper 20/low 30s with a few spots in the mountains seeing temps into the teens tonight! Some very limited patchy fog is also possible along the river beds overnight. Elsewhere skies will stay clear.

Our weekend weather is lookin real nice! However, Saturday morning will still be on the chilly side for tailgating & kickoff for the Louisville game at noon in Morgantown. We'll see afternoon highs in the upper 50s/low 60s Saturday & Sunday even with plenty of sunshine on tap during the day.

Gradually warming temps are expected next week. Our dry forecast & mostly sunny skies prevail in typical Fall fashion into at least the first half of next week. Tuesday will be a wonderful day of weather with highs topping out near 70. Then another low pressure wave will scoot across the central plains, eventually bringing some wild weather into the mix for Wednesday night/Thursday...You see what I did there? Wild & Wonderful Weather...

Wednesday, November 2, 2011

High pressure with lots of sunshine & above average temperatures reaching the mid 60s today. We'll see some high level clouds moving into our area tonight with lows falling to around 40. Forecast will stay dry Thursday with highs well above, topping out in the mid 60s again. But low pressure organizing over the Midwest will track across the lower Ohio Valley, skirting mainly our southern zones Thursday night/Friday morning. We'll pick up a few scattered rain showers with only trace amounts expected.

System will exit east during the day on Friday as high pressure returns for the weekend. But cooler air associated with this system will knock our temps down a peg or two Friday & Friday night. Lows will fall into the mid 30s Friday night. With clearing skies expected, morning fog is a good bet on Saturday morning. Like I said, high pressure on tap for this weekend will keep mild, sunny conditions in the afternoon. Nights will be on the chilly side...Next rain-maker is timed for mid week next week.

Warm air lifting north will reach well into New England today & Thursday ahead of the low pressure further west! Enjoy!

Tuesday, November 1, 2011

High pressure brings dry & sunny conditions into Thursday with gradually warmer temperatures. Low pressure cold front sweeps across the eastern half of the country to bring a few showers by Thursday night/Friday. And then high pressure returns to finish out the weekend on a pleasant note.

For today...dense morning fog reducing visibility early this morning. Otherwise, Tuesday will be sunny with temps in the mid to upper 50s. Tonight will be another foggy night with clear skies & lows in the mid 30s.

Wednesday will be sunny & warmer with highs in the mid 60s. Southerly air flow ahead of the next front will keep above average temps into Thursday as well. Wednesday night look for patchy fog and lows in the upper 30 under mainly clear skies.

Thursday will be mainly sunny with highs again in the mid 60s. Then that low pressure system will cross the southern Ohio Valley to bring scattered rain & slightly cooler temps into the mix for Thursday night & Friday.

High pressure will return to keep our weekend full of sunshine & slightly above average temps for this time of year. A weak disturbance will clip our area again by Sunday night/Monday. And these mild weekends will become scarce. So enjoy this one!

Today's image courtesy of Unysis Weather...Lots of warm air mixing into the Mid Atlantic states for midweek...But cool air extends as far south as central Texas & sweeps across the eastern US Thursday & Friday.

Monday, October 31, 2011

A few light rain showers clip our area this afternoon as a weak disturbance crosses the Ohio Valley, eastbound. Otherwise today will be mostly cloudy with temps in the low 50s. Leftover sprinkles & a few light flurries (in the higher terrain) may dampen some of the festivities this evening. But don't let that dampen your spirits!! Clearing skies and temps falling to right around freezing will set us up for a dense foggy night. Anyone brave enough to stay up late may not be sure whether it's fog building up outside, or something else...Some frost is also possible in a few isolated areas by Tuesday morning, with temps below average for this time of year.

For the rest of this week...high pressure will keep Tuesday & Wednesday dry & mainly sunny with highs in the upper 50s & 60s. Tuesday night will be chilly & foggy with lows in the mid 30s. Then lows for the rest of the week will stay in the low/mid 40s.

Another round of showers is timed for Thursday night/Friday. Some cooler temps are on tap for this period but they expected to stay well above freezing. Then high pressure will return to keep our weekend weather pleasant with highs in the mid 60s!

Friday, October 28, 2011

: ****WINTER STORM WATCH/WEATHER ADVISORY****

Deep low pressure lifting northeast into our area is expected to bring rain showers initially into our area this evening. Then as temperatures drop into the low 30s with sunset, a changeover to snow is expected just before midnight. Heavy accumulations are possible for some of our mountain counties & along the eastern panhandle. Up to 10 inches of snow is possible along some of the ridgetops. In addtion, with surface temps so close to freezing this makes for a very wet snow. These conditions could easily lead to downed trees and power outages Friday night & Saturday. The National Weather Service has issued a Winter Storm Warning (purple bondary) in effect until 10 AM Saturday for areas that will likely be effected by this system. There is also a Winter Weather Advisory (blue boundary) in effect for much of the surrounding area as points west of I-79 will stay on the western fringe of this system.

2-4 inches of snow are expected foe Morgantown & suorunding areas by Saturday evening. The system will exit to the northeast late Saturday & dump significant amounts of snow along the way. High pressure will gain control over the our area for the rest of the weekend. Temps for the most part will range from the low 30s into the low 50s into Monday. Some light rain will skirt the area Monday into Monday night.

Wednesday, October 26, 2011

Slow-moving rain showers and a few rumbles of thunder effect mainly our northern zones ahead of a strong cold front today. Some water problems may result along low-lying & poorly drained areas...Warm air ahead of the front keeps temperatures in the 60s this afternoon. Tonight, we'll keep a few scattered rain showers, some gusty winds, patchy fog & lows near 50. And for Thursday, we'll keep breezy conditions & scattered rain showers as that frontal boundary crosses our forecast area. We'll also see the bottom fall out of our temperature trend during the day as lots of cold air will be mixing in no a northwest flow aloft. Our high for Thursday will only reach the low 50s and that will be in the morning.  Look for temps to fall into the low 30s by Thursday night. Frost/freeze warnings will likely be needed. At the very least, we'll see widespread fog Thursday night. Then a changeover to wet snow with minimal accumulation is expected Thursday night/Friday.

Things will start to dry out by Friday morning as that low pressure departs. High pressure will build in briefly with some sunshine but we'll keep the chilly temperatures to round out the week. Lows will fall into the low 30s with some higher locations seeing lows in the upper 20s! And highs will only reach the low 50s. Another disturbance will graze our northern zones Saturday/Saturday night. Then high pressure will return to keep Sunday dry...We may see some rain showers for Halloween, but watch for updates as new info comes in.

Look at how cold it will get this week!!

Tuesday, October 25, 2011

High pressure keeps us dry today! Lots of sunshine & southerly winds put highs in the upper 60s, setting us up for a nice fall afternoon. But moisture ahead of the next frontal system will begin to seep into our northwestern zones tonight. This will keep much of the forecast area well insulated during the overnight hours. As a result, temps will stay mild tonight with lows in the upper 40s.

Wednesday will be mostly cloudy with highs in the mid to upper 60s. Sparse rain showers are expected for our westernmost zones during the day. Then a more potent wave will sweep across the entire forecast area Wednesday night bringing gusty winds, the chance for a few rumbles of thunder & potential for briefly hazardous water situation for our western zones by Thursday morning. Then, as that system exits our area Thursday night, cold air behind the frontal boundary & northwest flow aloft will drop temps enough to see a changeover to a wet snow into Friday morning.

Our weather will quiet down during the day Friday to end the week on a dry note. But clearing skies & cold air lingering across our area will make for some chilly nights to round out the week. Skies will be partly to mostly sunny this weekend. But highs are only expected to reach the mid 50s with lows falling below freezing. Freeze/frost warnings are likely, so you may want to go ahead and put on some pants!

Today's image, courtesy of Unysis Weather shows all that cold air advecting into eastern US Thursday night!!

Monday, October 24, 2011

Warmer temps on tap this week, compered to this weekend..A weak cold front crossing the Ohio Valley arrives this afternoon from the northwest. With it, a few light rain showers effect mainly our northern & mountain counties into this evening. Lows tonight will fall into the low 40s across the lowlands with mid/upper 30s in the mountains. Tuesday, winds turn southwesterly and with mainly sunny skies, highs are expected to reach 67 degrees. But ya better enjoy it, because a well advertised sprawling trough will swing across the central US and across the east by Wednesday night. This system will bring more gusty winds & another hefty dose of rain into Thursday. Then cold air behind the front settle in to bring a changeover to wet snow and overnight lows below freezing in some spots. Weekend conditions will stay on the chilly side, so kids' costumes should include long sleeves...perhaps a mummy or a ninja or even a scarecrow with a flannel shirt are in order. You can leave the tutus & Taylor Lautner costumes in the bedroom!

Today's images, courtesy of Unysis Weather show a nice warm-up for Tuesday/Wednesday...And cooler air draped across Central & Eastern US by Friday

To check on the progress of today's weather, click on the  regional radar http://weather.unisys.com/radar/rcm_rad.php?image=rad&inv=0&t=l&region=at   and regional satellite imagery  http://aviationweather.gov/adds/satellite/displaySat.php?region=DTW&isingle=single&itype=vis

Have a nice week and thanks for reading!!

Friday, October 21, 2011

That deep low pressure system continues to lift northeastward into Quebec today. As a result, we have winds finally dying down and drizzle coming to an end...Except in the mountains, where scattered drizzle is still possible into this evening. Then tonight a changeover to snow will allow minimal accumulation along our highest ridgetops. A freeze watch is in effect through tonight for our southernmost territories. Elsewhere, lows will fall into the mid & upper 30s. High pressure will build into our area Saturday to keep the weekend weather pleasant. But with minimal cloud cover, Saturday night will be even colder with lows falling into the low/mid 30s. Lows in the upp 20s are possible in the mountains Saturday night...Sunday will kickoff a gradual warming trend, putting temps close to 70 into next week. But another weak disturbance will skirt mainly our northern zones Sunday night/Monday. Then a stronger trough will swing across central & eastern US to bring more unsettled weather to our area by Thursday. The long term forecast points towards another cold snap in time for the Halloween weekend. 


Today's images show that departing low pressure system lifting into Canada & some warm air finally lifting into our area Sunday into next week.

Thursday, October 20, 2011












Low pressure system over the Ohio Valley continues to lift northeastward in line with previous forecasts today. As a result, conditions stay breezy and chilly with a few light wrap around rain showers expected today & tonight. Temperatures west of Rich Mountain are currently ranging in the low to mid 40s while points east are seeing temps in the low/mid 50s. With the heavy cloud cover & plenty of cold air still mixing into our area, temps are not expected to recover much today. Lows will stay in the upper 30s/low 40s tonight. Meanwhile, winds gusting to 30 MPH in many places easily makes it feel more like temps are in the low/mid 30s today, tonight & into Friday.

Conditions will stay chilly & breezy as that deep low pressure system pulls further away tonight and Friday. We'll see some light scattered drizzle during the day Friday with a changeover to light snow in the highest terrain (Randolph, Pocahontas, Tucker & Preston Counties) early Friday morning and again Friday night. Thick, low-lying clouds will stay socked in into Saturday morning but the leftover precip will begin to wind down for most of the forecast area later in the day Friday. The only exception will be some light upslope drizzle/wintry precip in those higher locales.

High pressure will build into our area by Saturday morning. So expect gradually clearing skies, along with calming winds and more sunshine. Highs will reach the mid 50s Saturday. But the clear skies and lingering cold air will make for a few very cold nights Friday night and especially Saturday night. Temps will be closing in on freezing Saturday night with a good chance for a fairly widespread frost/freeze into Sunday morning.

Warmer air aided by a healthy dose of high pressure will bring moderating weekend temperatures. Expect rebounding temps with daytime highs in the low/mid 60s Sunday into next week....A weak disturbance will cross or area again Sunday night/Monday, with limited moisture. Then a stronger system is timed for Thursday of next week. Long term forecasts point to another cold snap for the Halloween weekend.




Think you're cold?? Well you're not the only one! Today's image, courtesy of Unysis Weather shows near freezing temps at the surface for nearly the entire continental US by Friday morning! Click to enlarge.

Here is a look at our regional radar... http://weather.unisys.com/radar/rcm_rad.php?image=rad&inv=0&t=l&region=at

Wednesday, October 19, 2011

Low pressure progressing northward over the Ohio & Tennessee River Valleys allows for a strong front to sweep across our area today & tonight. A steep pressure gradient and strong convergence at the surface triggers strong, damaging winds this afternoon & evening. According to the Storm Prediction Center, there is a slight risk for severe thunderstorms across much of the forecast area into tonight. Further east, isolated supercells & possibly a tornado may form this evening into tonight. Stay tuned to local TV/radio for latest weather updates!

Warm air mixing finally shuts down behind the front and much cooler air will begin to filter in overnight. As a result we'll keep elevated risk for potentially damaging winds tonight & Thursday. Wrap around moisture will also trigger light rain showers, especially along our western slopes into tonight. Enough cold air will be mixing in to allow for a changeover to snow in the higher terrain tonight. But we are only expecting a light dusting of snow for those locations above 3300 feet into Thursday morning. Elsewhere lows will fall into the low/mid 40s and winds will stay breezy enough to prevent widespread fog development.

The storyline for Thursday will definitely be the strong winds and cold air advection. Gusts are expected to reach 35 MPH across much of the forecast area & up to 45 MPH in the higher terrain. Our area's NWS forecast office may need to hoist the wind advisory Thursday. Still expecting limited snowfall to occur Thursday morning and again by Friday morning. But by then, the departing system will not have much available moisture to work with...so accumulations will be in the order of 1 inch above 3300 feet. Rainfall totals are also expected to reach 1 inch before things start drying out late Friday... 

Mainly cloudy skies & lots of cold air will linger over much of the eastern US Friday. Highs are expected to only reach the low/mid 50s Thursday, Friday and Saturday. And with the breezy conditions, the wind chill will feel much, much colder. With clearing skies expected Friday & Saturday, lows Friday night & Saturday night will be closing in on freezing both nights.

The good news is that high pressure will have a strong foothold over the Mid Atlantic states by the weekend. So we can expect drier air, clearing skies & some sunshine for the weekend. Warmer air will gradually mix into the region by Sunday/Monday.


Click here for regional radar http://weather.unisys.com/radar/rcm_rad.php?image=rad&inv=0&t=cur&region=at

Images courtesy of SPC & HPC depict tornado threat into this evening & rainfall totals through Thursday...Click to enlarge!

Tuesday, October 18, 2011

A weakening frontal boundary slowly presses eastward today as a warm front brings above average temps for this time of year. High level clouds & isolated sprinkles well ahead of the front now invading the northernmost portions of our forecast area but widespread measurable rainfall will be delayed until tonight/Wednesday. Thunder, hail & strong gusty winds are not out of the question tonight/Wednesday as plenty of warm air & moisture will be available Wednesday. But weakening dynamics along the frontal boundary lend to marginal chance for this to be realized. Still expecting round about an inch of new rainfall with potentially heavy downpours possible at times as this system combines with coastal low pressure lifting north along the Eastern Seaboard. Then cooler air on the backside of the front will bring chilly & breezy conditions with possible wind advisories into Thursday as the front passes. A few light raindrops linger into Friday/Friday night with highs reaching the mid 50s & lows falling into the low 40s/upper 30s. Will need to watch frost/freeze potential towards the end of the week. Snowfall chances will be very light and limited to the highest terrain. High pressure & sunshine will dry things out with mild temps by Saturday/Sunday.

Monday, October 17, 2011

     We manage one more quiet day today with lots of sunshine. Highs will reach the mid 60s this afternoon as a weak warm front lifts north into the region ahead of a strong cold front timed to bring more unsettled weather into a large portion of the US Tuesday through much of the work week.
     Skies will turn partly to mostly cloudy overnight with lows falling into the low/mid 40s. A few overnight sprinkles are not out of the question, especially north of RT 50 & west of I-79. Otherwise the forecast will stay generally dry & mild Tuesday morning.
     For Tuesday...Lots of warm air will be mixing into our area to put highs in the low 70s. But clouds will be on the increase Tuesday as that strong low pressure system progresses eastward. Scattered rain showers will dot our landscape initially in the west Tuesday morning. Then fragmented showers & thunderstorms are expected to fire across our region Tuesday afternoon & evening.
     By Wednesday...low pressure will get hung up over the Mid Atlantic states keeping overcast skies, widespread rain and much colder temperatures in the forecast through Friday. As much as an inch and a half of new rain is expected during this time period. The bottom will really fall out of our temperatures as well. Highs will only reach the low/mid 50s and lows are expected to fall into the upper 30s. Strong winds are also expected Wednesday and Thursday as that frontal system crosses our area. Some light snowfall, mixed precip and freeze/frost are also possible as that system departs by the end of the work week, especially in the higher terrain.
     Then by the weekend the forecast turns more tranquil with some sunshine and mild temperatures again....

Friday, October 14, 2011

Brisk & breezy this afternoon as drier air mixes in behind the cold front departing eastward. Highs today reach the low 60s but breezy conditions make it feel much cooler despite the sun/cloud mix. Overnight temps will fall into the mid 40s but breezy conditions will bring the wind chill down into the mid/upper 30s. High pressure will keep our weekend forecast dry & blustery tonight through much of the day Saturday. Otherwise, we'll see partly cloudy skies with temps reaching the low/mid 60s again. Another cool night is on tap Saturday night with lows in the mid 40s. Sunday will be warmer with some sun but then another weak disturbance brings rain Sunday night/Monday. I think we'll have ample opportunity to get out and enjoy some fall weather this weekend but long sleeves & a jacket are recommended. A stronger front will bring more unsettled weather Tuesday through Thursday. With that, we'll likely see more strong winds, some thunder along with a healthy dose of rain. On the backside of that system, cold air will set us up for snow/mixed precip especially in the mountains...more on that later! Have a great weekend and thanks for reading.

Wednesday, October 12, 2011

Conditions stay soggy & breezy with lingering light showers this afternoon as low pressure crosses our eastern mountains. Gradual clearing is expected this evening but a few passing clouds will still dot our overnight skies. Overnight, lows will fall into the low to mid 50s & patchy morning fog will build into our area by Thursday morning. Otherwise, Thursday will start on a dry note with a sun/cloud mix & temps reaching the low to mid 70s. But another cold front and upper level trough will swing across the Mid Atlantic states, bringing scattered showers & limited thunder late in the day Thursday. Then another disturbance will arrive by Friday to keep chance rain showers into late Friday night. High pressure will build into the area just in time to make for drier weather with typical fall-like conditions...So expect mainly sunny skies with temps topping out in the 60s. Nights will be cool and crispy with lows in the mid 40s this weekend. Another weak cold front will sag south from the Great Lakes to bring rain Sunday night/Monday. Stay tuned for updates on possible snowfall/mixed precip by Wednesday of next week...

Tuesday, October 11, 2011

Increasing cloud cover and spotty rain showers are already creeping into southernmost parts of our forecast area today as deeper moisture lifts north. Temperatures are expected to reach the mid & upper 70s this afternoon despite the increasing cloud cover. Radar depicts spotty light showers across much of our area but odds are that a good deal of that is not actually reaching the ground. More widespread rain showers are expected to break out tonight. Generally cloudy skies and occasional showers are expected during the day Wednesday. A few showers & even a rumble of thunder are possible again on Thursday. Model guidance shows general agreement on much of the heaviest rainfall occurring in our eastern slopes along the Potomac Highlands and into central Pennsylvania into the end of the work week. 


Daytime temps will range in the mid 60s to near 70. Nighttime temps will stay on the mild side with persistent cloud cover providing a fair amount of insulation. So lows will stay in the low to mid 50s. Overall, temps will be trending a few degrees cooler each day. Then a cold front and associated trough will progress eastward outta the Great Lakes Thursday night/Friday. We'll likely see some measurable precip from that system as well. Much of the forecast area will pick up around 1.5 inches. While points east will see rainfall amounts closer to 2 inches before things dry out sometime Friday.

Your typical Fall weather pattern will unfold this weekend. Things will be a bit breezy with the passing of that cold front. Friday & Saturday, daytime highs will only reach the low 60s. While overnight lows fall into the low to mid 40s. High pressure behind the front will bring clearing skies, lots of daytime sunshine & a few cool, crisp nights into the weekend...Have a great day & thanks for reading!

Monday, October 10, 2011

High pressure will exit to our northeast today as low pressure and deeper moisture slowly lifts north into the Mid Atlantic states tonight/Tuesday. We'll manage one more day of warm, tranquil weather with a few high level clouds & temperatures reaching the low 80s today. Then we'll turn to a more unsettled weather pattern with temps gradually cooling a few degrees each day through the end of the week. Spotty rain showers will spread from south to north on Tuesday. More widespread rain showers and an isolated rumble of thunder are expected on Wednesday. Looks like the Eastern Panhandle/DC/VA/MD will see a majority of the new rainfall through Thursday. A cold front will drop in Friday, putting highs in the mid 60s. We'll dry things out by the weekend. Have yourself a nice week & thanks for reading!

Today's image is of our 3 day rainfall totals

Wednesday, October 5, 2011

High pressure brings a welcome change from the dreary damp routine today! Just a few leftover low level clouds & bad memories are all that remain from that low pressure. Today we can expect increasing sunshine & highs reaching the low 70s. Our area will remain under the influence of high pressure through the rest of this week and & through the first part of next week. We'll even need to break out the sunscreen & summer wardrobe for the weekend as highs peak in the low to mid 80s!! But our nights will stay  chilly and clear with patchy fog by morning. Lows will fall into the mid to upper 40s/30s in the mountains. High pressure & upper level ridging will begin to break down by Wednesday of next week. So look for more cloud cover and chance for a few rain showers by Wednesday night/Thursday next week! Till then...be sure to soak up the sun!

Tuesday, October 4, 2011

Low pressure center exits to the east today but stubborn low level clouds are still apparent on satellite imagery eastern Ohio, West Virginia & Pennsylvania this morning. Forecast is already starting to dry out as the influence of that low pressure begins to diminish. Any precip will be light & limited to the mountains this afternoon. Temperatures are already beginning to rebound as that northwest flow diminishes as well. Temps are expected to reach the low/mid 60s today, then mid/upper 40s tonight. We can expect some patchy fog in the valleys & perhaps some frost in the higher elevations by Wednesday morning. Otherwise, our skies will start clearing nicely from west to east. Strong high pressure will begin to build into the area tonight & Wednesday allowing for upper level ridging to set up camp over much of the eastern half of the country through this weekend. As a result, we'll have plenty of sunshine with temps in the 70s-gradually trending into the low 80s by the weekend. Our weather will be sunny & dry as a bone by kickoff Saturday against UConn. This will make up for the dreary weather this past weekend. But the lack of cloud cover will allow for cool, clear nights (especially in the mountains) with chance for patchy dense fog each morning. The dry forecast will continue into the first half of next week.

Monday, October 3, 2011

Leftover low pressure from the weekend makes for a soggy & chilly start to the workweek. Overcast skies & northwest upper air flow will severely limit daytime heating today. Temperatures will only reach the mid 50s today. Lows tonight will fall into the upper 40s across much of the forecast area. That northwest flow aloft will keep light wrap around rain showers in the forecast, especially in the mountains throughout the day today and into Tuesday. Low pressure system will finally exit to the east Tuesday, allowing for gradual drying from west to east during the day Tuesday. High pressure will bring much more agreeable weather Wednesday through the rest of this week. Temperatures will gradually rebound with daytime highs reaching a few degrees warmer each day. Highs will reach the low 80s by the weekend with several solid days of sunshine providing some well-deserved relief!! Follow this link for the latest radar!! http://weather.unisys.com/radar/rad_us_loop.gif

Friday, September 30, 2011

Strong cold front crosses our area today. Deepening trough continues to spread across the eastern/southeastern US bringing gusty winds & increasing late day cloud cover along with some of the coldest temps so far this season. Lows tonight will fall into the low 40s. Scattered rain showers will ramp up this evening, continuing through much of the day Saturday. As a result, Saturday will be unusually cool for this time of year and a bit breezy with highs only in the low to mid 50s. Rain showers will changeover to snow in places above 3300 feet soon after sunset Saturday. Elsewhere, patchy frost is expected as lows Saturday night fall into the low/mid 30s across our forecast area. Strong high pressure will build in behind the front, allowing for plenty of sunshine, warmer temps & a mainly dry forecast late Sunday through Thursday/Friday next week.

Thursday, September 29, 2011


That low pressure center that has been rotating over the southern Great Lakes for that past week was still only as far east as central Ohio this morning! But that system will finally open up aloft, cross the Ohio Valley & exit to our northeast across PA by evening. This, thanks to another strong trough developing over eastern US backed by the cold Canadian polar front timed to bring significantly colder air into our area Friday into the weekend. Ahead of the front, sufficient daytime heating will trigger some severe weather this afternoon & evening for many of our neighboring forecast areas. However, we're not expecting much in the way of severe weather for the mountain state today...

Remnants of that low pressure system lending to a few light mountain showers today. Otherwise, we actually have another nice day on tap as surface winds gradually shifting from the northwest today! Highs will reach 70 with a few peaks of sunshine in between a few mid & high level clouds. That strong cold front will start to  bring breezy conditions, lower cloud cover, scattered rain showers and much cooler temps to our area with sunset. Any storms that do fire will be capable of producing isolated hail briefly before things settle down after midnight. We'll keep lows tonight in the lower 50s.

Friday...breezy conditions & widespread rain showers will linger throughout much of the day as that deep trough & cold front gain a strong foothold on nearly the entire eastern/southeastern US! Daytime highs will be limited by heavy cloud cover and all that cold air mixing into the region. So look for temps to top out in the mid/upper 50s.

Mostly cloudy skies & scattered rain showers will linger into Saturday afternoon. New rainfall amounts are not expected to exceed one inch over the next three days. Temps will really bottom out Friday night & Saturday night! Lowlands will see temps falling into the low 40s Friday night & mid to upper 30s Saturday night! Expect any lingering precip during this time to change to snow in the higher elevations above 3500 feet.  

Strong high pressure associated with that cool, dense Canadian air will start drying things out from west to east Saturday evening. Temperatures will rebound to a more seasonal feel with highs near 70 again by Monday. High pressure will keep a dry forecast through next week with plenty of sunshine during the day.

Images depict our 3-day rainfall totals & cold air advecting into eastern US Friday night!!

Wednesday, September 28, 2011

We have a sun/cloud mix and temperatures reaching the mid/upper 70s today. http://aviationweather.gov/adds/satellite/displaySat.php?region=DTW&isingle=single&itype=vis Slight risk for severe weather will threaten our easternmost forecast area this afternoon. Max daytime heating & sufficient instability will bring breezy conditions and possibly even a tornado to the Eastern Panhandle, DC/VA/MD corridor. Otherwise, a few mid level clouds & a stray shower or two will graze our area overnight & into Thursday as that Great Lakes low pressure continues to toss plenty of moisture over the Mid Atlantic states. But the reign of the Great Lakes low will soon come to an end as a strong Canadian front sweeps across the eastern US Friday. With it, a well-defined line of showers & much cooler temperatures will cross our area Friday & Friday night. The bottom will really fall out of our temperatures this weekend! Highs will only reach the upper 50s. Nights will see temps in the low 40s/upper 30s. Ideal fog set up will allow dense morning fog this weekend. But lingering moisture will keep threat for a few showers, especially in the mountains into Saturday. Things really dry out Saturday night, Sunday and into next week! More later...

Tuesday, September 27, 2011

Cool frontal boundary exits our area today leaving cooler & generally dry conditions today. Upper level low pressure remains relatively stationary over northern Illinois, keeping abundant cloud cover and occasional rain in the forecast Wednesday & Thursday. The system will finally exit to the northeast early Friday as a stronger cold front invades from Canada. Reinforcing Canadian front will keep good chance for rain showers Friday. Cool, dry air on the backside of the front will bring more fall-like weather for the first few days in October. 

For today & tonight... Drier & more comfortable air mixing in from west to east behind the cool frontal boundary that crossed the mountains last night. Residual low level moisture & rainfall persisting along the eastern slopes slowly drying out as the weakening frontal boundary progresses north & east. A few peaks of sunshine and highs in the low 70s are on tap today. A few light mountain showers are possible this evening & overnight but much of the area will stay dry with deeper moisture pool well to our west. We'll keep variable clouds & patchy fog overnight with temps with lows falling into the low/mid 50s.

Great Lakes low pressure will continue to plague the Midwest & Mid-Atlantic states Wednesday & Thursday. Temperatures will become gradually cooler each day, especially with reinforcing cold front arriving this weekend. Mainly cloudy skies, highs in the low 70s & spotty rain showers are on tap during the day Wednesday. Skies will stay mostly cloudy with scattered rain & lows in the low/mid 50s Wednesday night.

Rain will become more widespread during the day Thursday as that Great Lakes low pressure system finally presses eastward. Skies will stay mostly cloudy & highs will only reach the upper 60s Thursday. Then another better defined line of showers will blow through after midnight into early Friday as that reinforcing cold front swings into our area. A few leftover showers are also possible during the day Friday as low level moisture lingers in the mountains into Friday night.

Remnant low level moisture may trigger a few weak showers Saturday morning. Otherwise the weekend forecast will stay cool and dry as the Canadian front pushes over the mountains & into the Carolinas Saturday. Strong high pressure will allow for plenty of sunshine this weekend. But highs are expected to only reach the upper 50s/low 60s over the weekend. Lows will fall into the low/mid 40s. Saturday night will be the coldest with lows falling to near 40. Cool, dry weather will last through a good part of next week as well.

Monday, September 26, 2011

     Scattered showers & isolated thunder will break out across our area ahead of a cold front crossing the mountains this evening & overnight. http://weather.unisys.com/radar/rad_us_loop.gif Behind the front, slightly cooler temps & lower dew points will allow more comfortable weather & mainly dry weather by Tuesday afternoon. But that pesky upper level low pressure over the southern Great Lakes will slowly progress eastwards to keep occasional rain showers in the forecast Tuesday night through at least midweek. That system will gradually get kicked outta here as we wave goodbye to September. Much cooler & drier air will arrive just in time for the first October weekend.

     Short term...a more or less southerly flow aloft brings lots of warm air into the region today. Plenty of sunshine and warm air mixing puts temps in the low 80s today without breakin a sweat! All that warm moist air ahead of a cold front crossing the Ohio Valley will trigger scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms, from west to east this afternoon & evening. A few storms may be capable of producing strong gusty winds, hail and repeated heavy downpours this evening. Occasional rain showers are expected tonight into Tuesday morning. Localized flash flooding problems are possible, especially for the mountains as up to 2.5 inches of new rainfall are possible given the chance for repeated heavy downpours. Behind the front, slightly cooler air & lower dew points will bring daytime highs Tuesday only a few degrees cooler than today.  

     That Great Lakes low pressure system over northern Illinois http://weather.unisys.com/nam/nam.php?plot=surf&inv=0&t=ini will gradually progress eastward into the Ohio Valley over the next few days. This will keep generally cloudy skies & an isolated shower in our forecast through at least Thursday. Our forecast will really dry out and cool air on the backside of that low pressure system will filter in by Friday. A dry, much cooler forecast is on tap for this weekend. Highs will only reach in the low 60s/upper 50s. Lows will fall into the low 40s to kickoff the first weekend in October!

Thursday, September 22, 2011

Last Day of Summer

Low pressure & warm, moist air mass lifts north into our area out of the southern states bringing sun/cloud mix & muggy conditions today. Weakening frontal boundary will trigger fragmented rain showers tonight. Great Lakes low pressure will set up a deep trough across eastern US, keeping unsettled weather in the forecast Friday through the weekend. Southwesterly air flow on the east side of the counterclockwise rotating low will keep above average daytime temps on tap over the weekend. Low pressure will meander into the Northeast by the middle of next week.

For tonight...weakening upper level low pressure & near saturated air mass will prompt a few passing showers, mainly in the mountains. Otherwise we have another muggy night with some fog & lows in the lower 60s under mostly cloudy skies.

Friday...we'll start Friday dry with a few peaks of sunshine during the day. A steady southwesterly air flow will continue to feed warm air into the region putting highs in the low/mid 70s. Great Lakes low pressure will dominate the forecast from Friday evening through Saturday & Sunday. Skies will stay mainly cloudy as bands of moisture provide focus for scattered wrap around rain showers. Periods of locally heavy rainfall may trigger high water problems for our mountain counties and points east this weekend. 

But our weekend weather will not be a total loss. Expect occasional breaks in the action, especially later in the day Saturday when perhaps even a dry slot develops over the mountain state. Am expecting temperatures to stay a few degrees above average through the weekend, especially further east where warmer air has a stronger foothold. Weekend highs are expected to reach the mid 70s with lows falling into the mid/upper 50s. 

The gloomy forecast will linger into the first part of next week as that Great Lakes low pressure finally progresses eastward across the Appalachian Mountains. This will allow for slightly cooler temperatures and scattered showers Monday & Tuesday of next week. Lookin' for new rainfall amounts around an inch with an inch and a quarter possible on the eastern slopes. Then our forecast will dry out by Wednesday of next week. 


Low pressure over the Great Lakes will retrograde over the Northern Plains, tossing abundant clouds & scattered showers over the Ohio Valley & Mid Atlantic states this weekend, exit to the Northeast late Tuesday, leaving up to 1.25 inches of new rain. Click to enlarge!

Wednesday, September 21, 2011

Warm moist air lifting north into our area from the Gulf region today will provide focus for scattered rain showers & isolated thunderstorms this afternoon & evening. Plenty of sunshine reaching the surface along with warm air mixing will contribute to threat for brief hail and strong damaging winds across portions of our forecast area this evening into tonight. Meanwhile, a stronger upper level low pressure system dropping into the Great Lakes will deliver sligthly cooler temps & rainy periods for much of the eastern US including our Appalachians into the end of September 

Tonight...that warm moist airmass lifting north into our area brings abundant clouds, scattered rain showers & isolated thunder this afternoon & evening. Strong gusty winds, periods of heavier rainfall & hail will threaten our area briefly. Scattered showers are expected to continue overnight until the system exits to the northeast during the wee morning hours Thursday. We'll  be left with stubborn low level clouds and patchy dense fog by Thursday morning. Expecting about .25 inches of new rainfall overnight with up to an inch possible in some of the eastern mountains during this time. Cloud cover will keep lows in the mid 60s overnight, with low 60s in the mountains.

Thursday...that upper level low pressure center dipping into the Great Lakes http://weather.unisys.com/gfsx/gfsx.php?inv=0&plot=500&region=us&t=l will provide focus for hit/miss rain showers across the Ohio Valley & southern Great Lakes Thursday, Friday, this weekend and into Monday & even Tuesday of next week. Models hint at a 'dry slot' developing over the mountain state Saturday. This scenario would be ideal as it would alleviate flash flooding concerns for our eastern mountains, allowing for any rainfall surplus to recover. Tailgaters for this weekend's matchup against LSU would also benefit from a well-timed dry slot on Saturday. Scattered rain showers are possible again on Sunday into the first part of next week as that system SLOWLY presses eastward. High water probelms are most likely east in the DC/VA area over the weekend.

Temperatures for the rest of this week will hinge on timing & track of the Great Lakes low pressure this weekend. Enough warm air will hang around to keep highs in the mid/upper 70s Thursday. Skies will be mainly cloudy Friday through the end of September. This will keep daytime temps on the cool side with highs in the upper 60s/low 70s. Our nights will be well insulated with lows in the mid 50s. http://weather.unisys.com/gfsx/gfsx.php?inv=0&plot=850&region=us&t=l

Tuesday, September 20, 2011

Weakening cold front exits to the east today. http://aviationweather.gov/adds/progs/nav.php?current=0 Warmer air lifting into our area out of the south will keep mild temperatures & abundant moisture on tap. Weak high pressure building into our area today will keep a generally dry forecast with variable clouds & patchy fog tonight. More moisture will lift north, keeping threat for scattered showers Wednesday & Thursday, especially east. Closed low pressure center will keep unsettled weather in the forecast through the weekend. High water advisories may be needed in the east by  the weekend. System will gradually exit to the east Tuesday of next week. Northwest air flow will allow cooler temps to mix into our area for the rest of next week.

http://aviationweather.gov/adds/satellite/displaySat.php?region=DTW&isingle=single&itype=vis Satellite imagery shows lots of cloud cover across the Mid Atlantic states this afternoon as a passing cold front spreads east of our area. Gradual clearing from west to east is expected to continue into this evening & overnight allowing for a generally dry overnight forecast. Patchy valley fog is possible overnight in between broken low level clouds. Lows will into the upper 50s.

Wednesday the upper level low pressure system dropping out of central Canada will slowly push south & east into the Great Lakes area. This will set our area up for a southerly trend to bring copious moisture & mild temps into our area from the Gulf region. We'll see scattered rain showers during the day Wednesday along with wrap around moisture late Wednesday into Thursday. Lows are expected to stay in the low 60s across the area with persistent cloud cover providing good insulation.

This low pressure system will become cutoff from the westerlies later this week, delivering unsettled weather to our area through the rest of this week & into the weekend.  http://weather.unisys.com/gfsx/gfsx.php?inv=0&plot=500&region=us&t=l The GFS extended forecast depicts the the closed low pressure center getting hung up over the southern Great Lakes Friday through the weekend & gradually lifting north & east towards the beginning of next week. This will keep the chance for hit & miss showers well into the weekend.
Temperature trends will depend a good deal on cloud coverage over the weekend. Overall, temps will stay mild with highs in the low/mid 70s. Lows will fall into the low/mid 50s at night.  

So the weekend does not look like a total washout but we'll need to keep the rain gear handy walking to and from class as we finish off the last days of summer. Tailgaters for this weekend's matchup against LSU may see rainy periods during the day Saturday. Although at the moment, weekend rain chances do not seem to be very impressive. Weak high pressure will try to dry things out towards the middle of next week. Naturally, confidence is low this far out. Am confident in northwest flow bringing slightly cooler temps by the middle of next week. 

5 Day rainfall amounts courtesy of HPC...Again, high water advisories may be needed especially further east. Click to enlarge!

Monday, September 19, 2011

     Weekend high pressure exits to the east. A warm front crossing the Ohio Valley today brings abundant cloud cover & warm, southwesterly air flow today. http://aviationweather.gov/adds/satellite/displaySat.php?region=DTW&isingle=single&itype=vis Cold front will skirt the mountains, bringing scattered showers & isolated thunder tonight through Tuesday. Stronger low pressure to arrive Wednesday/Thursday. Rainfall amounts just over an inch are expected across much of the forecast area during the week...cooler air timed for the first weekend of fall. 

     Heavy cloud cover looms to our west while weakening warm front triggers a few showers across KY & OH. http://weather.unisys.com/radar/rad_us_loop.gif Despite the clouds, highs will peak near 70 thanks to warm air mixing. We'll manage to keep dry through much of the early afternoon. But scattered rain showers are expected to ramp up this evening ahead of a weakening cold front. Isolated thunder is also possible, for mainly our western zones. Lows dip into the upper 50s/low 60s overnight.

     We'll keep generally cloudy skies & scattered rain showers during the day Tuesday. Weakening cool front loose steam & dry out as it spread eastbound, leaving a mainly dry forecast under partly cloudy skies towards evening. Highs will reach the upper 60s. Lows will be in the mid to upper 50s.


     Keep the rain gear handy! Closed upper level low pressure system will cross the Great Lakes area by Wednesday. This will keep the threat for wrap around rain showers and unsettled weather for our area through the second half of the work week. Lots of warm moist air will be lifting into the region ahead of the front. So we'll keep temps on the warm side through this period as well. Then cooler air on the backside of the front will fill into our area this weekend. Model guidance is still mulling over weather rain will affect our weekend forecast. For now will keep things cool & dry for kickoff at Milan stadium against LSU this Saturday night!

Friday, September 16, 2011

Last Weekend of Summer

Warm air returns next week!

Our area will stay on the southern edge of that Canadian high pressure overnight & through the weekend as it progresses eastward across Lake Ontario. http://aviationweather.gov/adds/progs/nav.php?current=0 A few weak disturbances will provide abundant clouds over the weekend. Some light patchy drizzle is possible especially in the mountains Saturday evening. Otherwise we have a mainly dry weekend forecast with temperatures rebounding into the low to mid 70s during the day. More moisture will bring slight chance for rain late Monday.

Tonight...abundant clouds https://aviationweather.gov/adds/satellite/displaySat.php?region=DTW&isingle=single&itype=vis & cool air lingering in the mountains this afternoon & evening will keep things on the cool side. Forecast will stay cool & mainly dry with a few passing clouds overnight. Lows will be in the mid 40s with dense patchy fog into Saturday morning.

Our area will stay on the southern edge of cool Canadian high pressure over the weekend. A few weak disturbances & shallow moisture may trigger some light drizzle, mainly in the higher elevations & east of our forecast area Saturday afternoon/evening. Spotty showers may crop up in the mountains briefly on Sunday. Otherwise, an easterly flow aloft will set us up for a mainly dry forecast under a sun/cloud mix this weekend.

Temperatures this weekend will depend on cloud coverage/solar radiation reaching the surface. By and large, daytime temperatures will return to normal with highs in the low/mid 70s. Nighttime temps will fall into the low 50s. Warm front will bring even warmer air and slight chance of rain across the Ohio Valley Monday night/Tuesday.

Thursday, September 15, 2011

     Upper level low pressure center sliding east from the Great Lakes into New England today. The well defined frontal boundary continues to spread south & east across the Mid Atlantic states this afternoon. Behind the front we have dry & much cooler air already building into our western slopes. Cold air mixing into our area under a northwesterly upper air flow will keep things breezy and cool as a few mountain rain showers linger into the afternoon. Canadian high pressure will provide mostly clear skies overnight as temperatures fall into the low 40s/upper 30s in the mountains. This will set up ideal conditions for dense valley fog to build into Friday morning.

     A few passing showers may brush extreme southern West Virginia during the day Friday. Otherwise that Canadian high pressure will keep a good hold over the Great Lakes and Mid Atlantic states through the weekend. This will keep the forecast for the mountain state dry and mainly sunny Saturday & Sunday. Weekend temperatures will gradually return to normal with daytime highs reaching the low to mid 70s. At night temperatures will fall into the mid 40s this weekend. Then the next frontal boundary will bring another chance for rain by Tuesday next week.

Wednesday, September 14, 2011

    You're lookin' at the surface map for Thursday night, courteys of HPC

    First & weaker of two cold frontal boundaries will dip southeastward into the Appalachians today. Ahead of the front scattered rain showers & isolated thunder may develop across northern West Virginia, PA this afternoon. A stronger reinforcing cold front will push through later tonight into Thursday. Expect better rain coverage Thursday morning and a brisk Thursday night. Massive high pressure will provide cool dry weather late Thursday & Friday. We have a nice weekend on tap thanks to that 1028 high pressure!

    Today & tonight...warm air still lingering in the mountain state this afternoon. Temps will mange a respectable 80. Mostly clear skies http://aviationweather.gov/adds/satellite/displaySat.php?region=DTW&isingle=single&itype=vis giving way to increasing cloud coverage across Ohio & northern West Virginia this afternoon. Regional radar http://weather.unisys.com/radar/rcm_rad.php?image=rad&inv=0&t=l&region=at depicts isolated thunder cell activity crossing eastern Ohio & brushing the northern West Virginia panhandle. A few scattered rain showers may break out across our northern bow this afternoon/early evening. Initial frontal boundary will have crossed the mountains by 8 o'clock tonight. However, our evening rain chances seem rather meager until that second frontal boundary provides deeper moisture & better dynamics late tonight into early Thursday.

    So expect mostly cloudy skies, scattered rain showers, isolated thunder & lows in the upper 50s tonight.

    Thursday will be noticeably cooler with rain showers tapering off to light drizzle by mid-morning. Rainfall amounts for our area & across the east will less than half an inch. A large area high pressure behind the front will usher in cool, dry over the Great Lakes & Mid-Atlantic states Thursday. Clearing skies along with cold air mixing into our area will put overnight lows Thursday night in the low 40s. Higher elevations could easily see lows in the upper 30s if skies clear well enough. http://weather.unisys.com/gfsx/gfsx.php?inv=0&plot=850&region=us&t=l

    That large 1028 high pressure will keep mainly sunny skies, mild temps & dry forecast for Friday, Saturday & Sunday, especially for northern West Virginia. Warmer air will gradually rebound, into southern West Virginia first. Highs will eventually reach the low to mid 70s as that high pressure center slides eastward. The forecast for Monday looks good with temperatures back to normal. Next rainmaker will arrive Tuesday/Wednesday.

Tuesday, September 13, 2011

     We're allowed another sunny summer day with highs reaching the low 80s this afternoon. Weak high pressure will give way to a series of cold fronts that will plunge south out of Canada. The first system will begin with cooler temps and scattered rain showers tonight through early Wednesday. A second cold front will usher in another cool blast and better chances for rain showers and possibly a rumble of thunder Thursday. We'll be grabbing for the hoodies & fleece by the end of the week as overnight lows fall into the low 40s. Broad high pressure will keep cool & dry conditions for weekend!

     For today & tonight...we start with lots of sunshine today. But clouds are on the increase as that cold frontal boundary edges closer to our area. For now, southwest winds bring in warmer air ahead of the front. things get downright hot today. But rain showers and cooler temps are expected to spread east into our area with frontal passage. Look for breezy conditions, scattered rain and lows near 60 tonight.

     Wednesday the second cold frontal boundary will sweep eastward across the Great Lakes, quick on the heels of the first one. Deeper moisture & cold air along with this system will bring a fall feel & better chance for rain Wednesday night & Thursday. My recommendation: wear pants! Daytime highs will be limited due to cloud cover and rain. Expect highs in the low to mid 60s & lows falling into the mid 40s. A few mountain counties could easily see lows in the upper 30s before the end of the work week.

     A large area of high pressure will build over the breadbasket, stretching into the Mid Atlantic states for this weekend. This will keep dry & mild conditions into the first half of next week. Any tailgaters this weekend will find opportunity to apply sunscreen by late-morning/afternoon. Weekend highs will rebound back to normal but nights will lean towards upper 40s/low 50s.

Monday, September 12, 2011

Upper level trough exits east today. Mostly clear skies are expected tonight with lows falling to near 60. It'll be another foggy start Tuesday morning. Otherwise, high pressure will bring mostly sunny & warm conditions with highs near 80 Tuesday. A well-defined cold front (pictured) will bring increasing cloud cover, periods of rain with scattered thunderstorms for the second half of the work week. Northwest flow will allows daytime temps only in the low to mid 60s while nighttime temps will fall into the mid to upper 40s. High pressure will rebuild over our region to keep sunshine & mild temperatures in the weekend forecast.

Friday, September 9, 2011

     Low pressure from Lee still retrograding west into the Mississippi & Missouri River Valleys Friday & Saturday. Record-breaking flooding is still ongoing in PA, NY and parts of the northeast. Fragmented showers & storms are possible for our area this afternoon. Any storms that do fire will lose their steam after dark leaving generally calm conditions overnight. We'll keep generally cloudy skies with a few peaks of sunshine this weekend. Disorganized showers & isolated storms are expected, especially for our northern mountains this weekend. Weekend temps will peak in the upper 70s/low 80s. Overnight lows will fall into the upper 50s with low 50s in the higher elevations. I think if we all do a rain dance then maybe that low pressure center will get caught in the westerlies & exit to the east sometime Monday. We'll squeeze out a few dry days with more sunshine for the first half of next week. Then a well defined cold front will dip south from Canada to bring rain & thunder along with significantly cooler temps for Wednesday night/Thursday.

     For tonight...our old friend Lee is still dancing around the Midwest & Mid-Atlantic states, providing abundant cloud cover along with scattered rain showers & isolated thunderstorms this evening. Main threat for thunder will be focused on our northern mountains with any storms dying off after dark. Broken cloud cover is expected after midnight. I'm betting on calm winds and moist soils combining again to make for pretty dense fog in places for game day Saturday morning. So allow for extra time getting to Mylan Puskar Stadium Saturday morning.

     Our game day forecast looks similar to today's. We'll see a sun/cloud mix for much of the day. Increasing clouds and afternoon showers & an isolated thunderstorm are expected as the day progresses. Highs will be in the upper 70s with temps leaning closer to 80 in the eastern panhandle.

     Low pressure from Lee WILL eventually open up aloft, cross back over our mountains and exit to the east later this weekend. This will keep the threat for scattered rain showers into Sunday, especially Sunday afternoon & evening. Low temperatures this weekend will dip into the upper 50s with low 50s likely in the mountains. Daytime highs will stay on the warm side over the weekend. Expect upper 70s & low 80s in the east.

     For next week...clearing skies, a dry forecast & more sunshine is expected Monday and Tuesday. Temperatures will be a few ticks higher than previous days with more sunshine on the forecast. But cooler & more rainy weather is on tap for Wednesday night/Thursday. click this link to see just how far that arctic front dips south into continental US! http://weather.unisys.com/gfsx/gfsx.php?inv=0&plot=850&region=us&t=l  If this doesn't put you in the mood for football by next weekend, nothin' will!

Thursday, September 8, 2011

     Scraps from the once Tropical Storm Lee still hung up over the Ohio Valley today. The wedge-shaped low pressure center depicted here is in essence trapped overhead by high pressure to the NW and the arctic front & associated trough pushing south into SE'rn Canada. The system will continue to provide abundant clouds, cooler temps and rainy periods across the Ohio Valley & Mid Atlantic states today well into the weekend. Meanwhile, a stationary front along the eastern seaboard is brings unsettled weather to eastern PA, NJ and parts of the northeast. Major flooding is ongoing for these locations and an additional 3+ inches of rain is forecast or the next 48 hours...Katia is now a sidenote, bringing only rip currents & higher than usual surf to our east coast. But at least one additional tropical threat (named Maria) gathers steam as we turn our calendars to peak hurricane season.

     Today in the mountain state...we'll have a sun/cloud mix as a well defined dry slot (visible on radar) http://weather.unisys.com/radar/rcm_rad.php?image=rad&inv=0&t=l&region=at builds into our area. All-in-all, not a bad day on tap considering the weather that our neighbors to the north are dealing with. Highs will reach the mid to upper 70s, depending on just how much sun shines during the day. But a few afternoon & evening showers & storms are possible, especially in our northern mountains.

     Tonight...spotty shower and thunderstorm activity will linger, especially in the mountains. Lows will fall into the low 60s. The combination of broken low level cloud cover, wet soils and light winds will allow for patchy dense fog to develop into Friday morning.

     Friday, upper level low pressure will waiver west into the lower Ohio Valley/Mississippi River Valley, keeping isolated thunder in our forecast Friday afternoon & into the weekend. Highs will be in the upper 70s/low 80s.

     Our weekend weather is not a total loss. We'll have a sun/cloud mix with a majority of the cloud coverage leaning towards the northwestern portions of our state-remnants from Lee. Low pressure associated with Lee will eventually open up aloft, weaken further and meander into the northeast by next week. The threat for isolated showers and storms will continue Saturday and Sunday. Highs will peak near 80. Lows will fall to near 60. But some places in higher elevations could very well see mid 50s overnight this weekend.

     Next week...Monday's forecast looks reasonable. Highs will reach the low 80s under partly cloudy skies. But another frontal boundary will bring a dash of rain and cooler weather for Tuesday and Wednesday next week.

Wednesday, September 7, 2011

     Blue skies appear today as a few peaks of sunshine manage to punch holes in some of cloud cover over the Mountain State. Remnants of Lee gradually dissipating over the Ohio Valley. Water levels in local creeks and streams steadily receding. Flash flood warnings for West Virginia have expired with the exception of the Eastern Panhandle, where the threat for showers & storms over DC/VA lingers into Thursday. Meanwhile, upper level low pressure will interact with leftovers from Lee to keep residual bands of rain & thunder in the forecast now through the weekend. Temperatures won't change very much with highs reaching the upper 70s/low 80s. Overnight lows will fall to near 60.

     For today...leftover low pressure from Lee will actually waiver west, into the Ohio Valley. Our area will stay dry for much of the day today as a 'dry slot' develops over much of the Mid-Atlantic states. But the weakening system will continue to interact a deep upper level trough to produce broken cloud cover and spotty showers. Partly sunny skies will help put highs near 80 today. By early evening, a few pop up thunderstorms may develop across our area. Again, flash flooding concerns have faded but any locally heavy downpours that do crop up could have a major impact on areas that have been dumped on.

     Overnight...skies will be partly/mostly cloudy. We'll keep a chance for rain showers and an isolated storm, especially in the mountains. Otherwise, calm conditions will allow patchy fog to develop into early Thursday. Lows fall to near 60.

     For the rest of this week...Thursday, low pressure from Lee hung up west of the Appalachians will keep the threat for spotty showers and thunderstorms, especially further east. The slowly weakening system will gradually be pulled apart, producing less & less severe weather threat by the weekend. However, the unsettled forecast will linger into the weekend as another upper level disturbance provides the chance for afternoon & evening thunder Saturday & Sunday. Temperatures through the weekend will range from upper 50s/low 60s to near 80 each day.