Monday, November 14, 2011

Copious moisture & low pressure invading the Mid Atlantic states on a strong southerly air flow through the first half the this week.This results in above average temps coupled with gusty winds, widespread showers & isolated thunderstorms today through Wednesday. Cold front timed to cross our area early Tuesday will keep an unsettled forecast & cooler temps Tuesday/Wednesday. Much colder air will mix in to bring a chilly end to the work week. High pressure will return to round out a mild weekend. 

Today & tonight...Strong southerly air flow ahead of a cold front brings highs into the 70s today. A few impulses crossing the southern Great Lakes just north of our forecast area producing scattered shower activity this morning. Otherwise, much of the area will stay dry until later today. Main threat for thunder and possible tornado development runs from southern Illinois through much of Indiana & Ohio today. Folks near our westernmost border along the Ohio River remain on the eastern fringe of isolated severe threat this afternoon & overnight. Further east, we'll see a sun/cloud mix, breezy conditions this afternoon. Increasing clouds, widespread showers & isolated thunder are possible this evening. Some rain could be heavy into the overnight. Breezy tonight with lows in the mid 50s.

Cold front crossing our area Tuesday will keep scattered showers across our forecast area well into Wednesday. Flooding concerns will depend on the speed & track of any developing disturbances. Most of our forecast area could easily pick up an inch and a half of new rain through Wednesday. We may see NWS raise some warning flags for water concerns by midweek. 

We'll contend with dropping temperatures during this period as well. Highs Tuesday are only expected to reach the low 60s. Lows stay in the upper 40s/low 50s Tuesday night. Cold air on the backside of this cold front will bring about big changes in the forecast by Wednesday night. Lows fall to right around freezing by then.

Breezy & chilly conditions for Thursday & Friday. Winds turn from out of the northwest to bring temps into the 20s by Thursday night. So a few snowflakes by Friday morning are certainly not out of the question. Will watch for possible mixed precip & report on these changes later, as new data becomes available. Have a nice week & thanks for reading!

Today's image, courtesy of Unysis Weather depicts winds at 850 millibars lifting plenty of warm air into our area today. Check regional radar here  http://weather.unisys.com/radar/rcm_rad.php?image=rad&inv=0&t=l&region=at