Tuesday, August 2, 2011

    We keep rolling with the above average temperatures...Lots of warm tropical air lifts north, into our area today and tonight. Highs are forecast to reach 90 across much of the forecast area. But increasing afternoon clouds on a northwest flow may keep widespread 90s from being realized. Scattered rain showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected to spread south from the Great Lakes, affecting mainly our northern zones this afternoon and evening. Locally heavy rainfall is possible with any storms that do fire across our bow later today. Strong gusty winds are also possible as this disturbance progresses eastward.

    Warm air will continue to mix into the region, keeping things muggy overnight. Lows will stay in the low 70s. Stronger & more widespread storms are expected to fire across our northernmost counties late tonight/early Wednesday morning. Lightning & strong damaging winds with gusts 20 to 30 MPH will be the main threats ahead of a cold front timed to cross to our area  overnight into Wednesday morning.

    Frontal boundary will pass cross our area by Wednesday morning. So a few leftover showers and an isolated storm will still be possible Wednesday morning. Lingering moisture will also keep threat for an isolated late-day sprinkle in the southern portions our our state Wednesday. Otherwise, high pressure will begin to gain control over the region. This will allow for a sun/cloud mix with drier conditions for the rest of Wednesday, Thursday & most of the day Friday. Highs will be in the upper 80s, perhaps 90 for some of the lowland counties. High pressure ridging will give way to more humid air, triggering more showers and thunderstorms late Friday and into the weekend.

Meanwhile in the Caribbean Sea...

Tropical Storm Emily triggers storm warnings for the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic. Rainfall in these locations is expected to be in the area of  4-6 inches with up to 10 inches possible in some areas. Tropical storm force winds and higher sea levels are also expected tonight as Emily progresses WNW at about 14 MPH. Forecasters estimate that Emily will continue on her WNW'rly track, possibly affecting The Bahamas, Florida and the Atlantic Coast through the weekend.


SPC's depiction of our convective threat for today. Best chances for severe weather will remain to our northwest.