Thursday, July 28, 2011

    In the Gulf of Mexico...Tropical Storm Don has triggered warnings for extreme southeastern Texas and will make landfall Friday night. Satellite imagery and hurricane hunter data depicts Don in the Central Gulf, 500 miles ESE of Corpus Christi, heading WNW at 10 MPH. Max sustained winds are 40 MPH, minimum central pressure is 1000 millibars. Some strengthening is expected over the next 24-48 hours in the warm Gulf waters. The primary threat associated with Don will be tropical storm-perhaps cat 1 force winds.

    Meanwhile, upper level disturbances ride east along the westerlies, producing scattered showers and thunderstorms in the Northern Plains and Great Lakes today and tonight. But high pressure hangs onto the Mid Atlantic states, keeping our forecast dry through Friday evening. Rain/storms will stay just north of our area!

    Warm air lifting north ahead of a cold front will put highs right around 90 this afternoon. Increasing clouds are expected today and tonight as that high pressure ridge breaks down over the east. Lows tonight will only fall to around 70 with all the warm air mixing in. Some fog will develop overnight but will be isolated the deepest valleys. With dew points gradually increasing to around 70, expect more humidity to build into the air by Friday morning.

    Hot and humid Friday under partly to mostly cloudy skies. Highs Friday will be in the mid 90s. Heat index will make it feel like the upper 90s. A few places may see heat indices in the triple digits again. All that heat along with super-moist upper air mass will trigger showers and thunderstorms as early as Friday evening. Heavy downpours are possible Friday night & Saturday. Dry air awaits behind the front. But the timing of just how quickly things dry out for the rest of the weekend will depend on whether the front gets hung up in the mountains Saturday. Current thinking is that at the very latest, things will clear out north to south by Sunday afternoon. Highs will stay in the upper 80s/low 90s through the weekend & into next week.

850 mb map courtesy of Unysis Weather shows hot air returning to the area Friday night.