Friday, June 17, 2011

     Model guidance has demonstrated several discrepancies regarding the handling of a stationary front that will camp out over the Appalachians through Father's Day weekend. This system, along with a steady westerly upper air flow will provide mechanisms for scattered showers and potentially severe thunderstorms each day into early next week. Some questions still exist regarding the timing and track of a series of shortwave disturbances. But we can expect occasional showers and Tstorms with potentially damaging winds and/or hail to develop with peak daytime heating in the afternoon and evening each day through the short term forecast. Any heavy downpours that do occur would create potential water problems, especially where soils are already saturated due to recent rains.

     Dewpoints will for the most part, be in the mid 60s. Air will be nearly saturated and humid condtions will persist. We will also see slightly above average temperatures this weekend. Highs Saturday will be in the mid to upper 80s. Lows will stay in the mid to upper 60s. This may make nights nearly as uncomfortable as our upcoming days!

     Although high pressure will provide the possibility for some relief from the thunder, our area will remain vulnerable to scattered showers and storms through next week. Tuesday marks the summer solstice and the first day of summer. With max sunshine & daytime heating, we will still be susceptible to convective afternoon & evening storms. Highs will reach the low to mid 90s across much of our state to mark the official start of summer. Will report on this as better information becomes available! Meantime, happy father's day!!