Area Forecast

    Cold front pushed well south of our area last night & into the Tennessee Valley this morning. Plenty of low level moisture still lingering over the mountains provides some morning fog & mostly cloudy skies. Some clearing is expected today as high pressure tries to break up that cloud cover. Haze will linger throughout most of the day. High pressure will gain better control over the Great Lakes region overnight, setting up another foggy night for the Mountain State.

    Cold frontal passage has not done much to relieve the heat and humidity though. With highs in the mid 80s and dew points around 70, our heat index will stay in the mid 90s. We'll stay dry today & tonight under mostly clear skies. Things will stay muggy with lows in the upper 60s overnight.

    Frontal boundary will lift back north as a warm front Friday. We'll keep a dry forecast with above average temps Friday. However, low level moisture will sneak back into our area and hot & humid conditions will persist into the weekend. This will provide ample opportunity for rain showers and a few thunderstorms Friday night through the weekend. Main threat for our area will potential for heavy downpours, mainly Saturday.

    Temps this weekend...Daytime highs will be in the upper 80s. Lows will only fall to the low 70s. Another cold front will cross the Great Lakes Sunday night & Monday. So we'll keep the threat for rain showers & thunderstorms Sunday & Monday. High pressure will build into the region by Tuesday. Another round of wet weather arrives by Wednesday.

   Tropical Storm Emily is forecast to be off the southern Atlantic coast by Monday. Although threats to the Us mainland are limited, Emily will disrupt surf, making for potentially dangerous surf conditions for the first half of next week. Beach-goers will observe 6-8 foot waves this weekend and next week. The storm will then race northeast & dissipate in the middle of the Atlantic Ocean.

Tropical Outlook

    Tropical Storm watches are still in effect for many Caribbean Islands today. Emily has remained fairly stationary over the past 24 hours, meandering 105 miles SSE of Port Au Prince, Haiti. But forecasters expect that Emily will resume her WNW track & cross the southwestern peninsula of Haiti sometime today. Minimum pressure is holding steady at 1005 millibars. Winds are still sustained at 50 MPH...

    Although Emily's interaction with land has hindered further development over the past few days, she has become a major threat to Haiti, Dominican Republic and the Bahamas. An average of 6-12 inches of rainfall forecast with isolated spots of up to 20 inches in the mountainous terrains!! These rains would cause life-threatening flash floods and mud slides. Tropical storm force winds and a storm surge up to 3 feet are also possible in these islands...Emily is expected to graze the Florida coast in the next 72 hours, then race northeast further out in to the Atlantic, dissipating after 96 hours. Emily will prove minimal threat to US mainland.

    In the East Pacific Ocean...Eugene has been downgraded to Cat 3. Eugene will continue on a WNW track at 14 MPH and is not expected to threaten land.

    Meanwhile in the West Pacific Ocean, Super Typhoon Muifa remains fairly stationary about 300 miles off the Chinese coast. This storm is a major threat to surrounding coastlines.

    Elsewhere, tropical cyclone development is not expected in the next 48 hours.

Area Forecast

    Our area remains under a slight risk for severe weather today as a cool frontal boundary progresses southeastward today and tonight. High pressure returns for Thursday and Friday. More wet weather is possible late Saturday & Sunday. Then we dry out for Monday.

     Across the north, rain shower and thunderstorm activity has steadily weakened but is expected to refire this afternoon with daytime heating. Breezy conditions along with a few isolated storm cells are expected this afternoon & evening as plenty of low/mid level moisture brings further instability.

    Further south, stronger & more organized showers & storms are ongoing in southwestern WV & eastern KY. Rain showers and storms are expected to regenerate in and around central and southern West Virginia this afternoon & evening. Strong damaging winds, hail and heavy rainfall are possible with any storms that do resurface later today.

    Cool front will pass south of our area this evening & tonight. Lingering cloud cover & low level moisture will limit solar radiation receipts this afternoon. Highs will be in the mid/upper 80s.
High pressure will gradually gain control over the Mid-Atlantic states overnight. Plenty of cloud cover and low level moisture will linger over our area to keep lows in the upper 60s/low 70s tonight. Partly cloudy skies will eventually give way to more sunshine during the day Thursday. Highs will be in the low to mid 80s. Lows Thursday night will be in the mid 60s.

     A few peaks of sunshine are on tap Friday. Highs will be in the upper 80s. More deep moisture will sneak into at least the eastern mountains late in the day Friday. Good chance for rain & thunder is timed for late Saturday into Sunday. Things will gradually clear out to start the next work week.

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Atlantic/Caribbean & East Pacific Tropical Update

On the Tropical front...

    Tropical Storm Emily is headed west at 14 MPH, about 145 miles SSE of the Dominican Republic tis morning. Minimum pressure is still only 1006 millibars, winds are 50 MPH. But Emily will still pack a wallop to Hispaniola, Puerto Rico and the Bahamas. Tropical Storm warnings are in effect for those islands and a few others. According to the National Hurricane Center, Emily could dump an average of 4-6 inches of rain and up to 10 inches on those Caribean Islands over the next 24-48. Tropical storm force winds and a 1-2 foot storm surge are also forecast for these area. Emily is expected to turn to the northwest & strenghten over the next 24-48 hours. She could threaten mainland US, including FL, as she moves into the waters of the Atlantic over the next 72 hours or so.
    Elsewhere in the Atlantic, tropical waves and monsoon moisture remain poorly defined between 10 & 20 degrees North...

    In the East Pacific...Hurricane Eugene has been upgraded to a Cat 3 and is headed WNW about 570 miles SSE of the southern tip of Baja. Min pressure is 961 millibars, sustained winds are 115 MPH but Eugene is not expected to threaten land and begin to weaken later today.

    A secondary tropical wave is developing about 500 miles east of Eugene along the southwestern coast of Mexico. According to NHC, conditions are favorable for further development over the next 24-48 hours.

West Pacific Tropical Update

In the West Pacific...Southeast Asia...Super Typhoon Muifa is a Category 5 and is located about 200 miles southeast of Okinawa. Max winds are 140 knots. Minimum pressure is less than 920 millibars. Muifa is a major threat to Okinawa and surrounding islands and will make landfall on the eastern coast of China in the next 72 hours.

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    We keep rolling with the above average temperatures...Lots of warm tropical air lifts north, into our area today and tonight. Highs are forecast to reach 90 across much of the forecast area. But increasing afternoon clouds on a northwest flow may keep widespread 90s from being realized. Scattered rain showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected to spread south from the Great Lakes, affecting mainly our northern zones this afternoon and evening. Locally heavy rainfall is possible with any storms that do fire across our bow later today. Strong gusty winds are also possible as this disturbance progresses eastward.

    Warm air will continue to mix into the region, keeping things muggy overnight. Lows will stay in the low 70s. Stronger & more widespread storms are expected to fire across our northernmost counties late tonight/early Wednesday morning. Lightning & strong damaging winds with gusts 20 to 30 MPH will be the main threats ahead of a cold front timed to cross to our area  overnight into Wednesday morning.

    Frontal boundary will pass cross our area by Wednesday morning. So a few leftover showers and an isolated storm will still be possible Wednesday morning. Lingering moisture will also keep threat for an isolated late-day sprinkle in the southern portions our our state Wednesday. Otherwise, high pressure will begin to gain control over the region. This will allow for a sun/cloud mix with drier conditions for the rest of Wednesday, Thursday & most of the day Friday. Highs will be in the upper 80s, perhaps 90 for some of the lowland counties. High pressure ridging will give way to more humid air, triggering more showers and thunderstorms late Friday and into the weekend.

Meanwhile in the Caribbean Sea...

Tropical Storm Emily triggers storm warnings for the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic. Rainfall in these locations is expected to be in the area of  4-6 inches with up to 10 inches possible in some areas. Tropical storm force winds and higher sea levels are also expected tonight as Emily progresses WNW at about 14 MPH. Forecasters estimate that Emily will continue on her WNW'rly track, possibly affecting The Bahamas, Florida and the Atlantic Coast through the weekend.

SPC's depiction of our convective threat for today. Best chances for severe weather will remain to our northwest.

    We start August hot with lots of sunshine-no surprises really. Weak disturbances bring threat for isolated thunderstorm activity this afternoon/evening. Clearing overnight with AM fog Tuesday. Partly to mostly cloudy Tuesday. Rain showers & a few storms are possible ahead of a cold front dropping by Tuesday night/Wednesday. Daytime highs will be right around 90, with lows in the mid to upper 60s this week.

    Forecast will stay hot and sunny for most of today under a northwest air flow. Highs will be in the low 90s. Look for increasing afternoon clouds, rain showers and an isolated thunderstorm as a weak disturbance rides into town on that NW flow. Limited moisture may simply produce some breezy conditions this afternoon/evening. Any storm cells that do develop will dissipate with sunset. This will leave generally clear skies overnight with lows falling to around 63. Morning fog will develop again into Tuesday morning.

    A similar pattern will unfold on Tuesday. We'll start dry and sunny. Highs will be a tick or two high than today, in the low 90s. A second weak disturbance will brush mainly western & central West Virginia Tuesday afternoon. We could squeeze a few showers/isolated thunder out of that during the day. Better rain chances arrive Tuesday night into Wednesday. Breezy conditions and possible heavy downpours will accompany that wave of showers & storms ahead of a cold front timed for Tuesday night/Wednesday. Storms will affect mainly our northern zones with a few chance storms making their way into central & southern West Virginia.

    Our forecast for the rest of this week will keep plenty of sunshine and highs in the low 90s. A few hit/miss thunderstorms are possible in the maximum afternoon heating. More widespread cloud coverage, showers and thunderstorms are possible Saturday & Sunday.

    A more active tropical weather forecast is beginning to take shape. Tropical Storm Eugene has developed along the southwestern coast of Mexico, heading WNW at 12 MPH. Maximum sustained winds are 60 MPH but forecasters predict Eugene could become a hurricane Tuesday...In the Atlantic, a cluster of strong rain showers and thunderstorms has developed about 300 miles east of the Windward Islands. Forecasters estimate that this system has a strong possibility, 90% of becoming a tropical storm in the next 24-48 hours. Regardless of the fate of this system, it will bring heavy rain and gusty winds to the Caribbean Islands in the next 12 to 24...Will need to watch this system closely.