Touch & Go

West Virginia remains on the southern edge of a band of upper level disturbances over the next several days. Ergo showers and thunderstorms are likely to develop today, continuing through the rest of the week. Models are also beginning to come into agreement on a front that will push southward through the Great Lakes region, prolonging the gloomy outlook and adding to any existing water problems through the weekend.

For today, scattered showers and thunderstorms may produce heavy rainfall. But predicting the timing and location of each short wave disturbance continues to prove difficult. Still, no flood warnings are in place at the moment and drainage should not be a problem today as any storm cells will be tracking quickly across the region. However, the threat of repeat hits from heavy downpours may prove problematic before the end of the week. To be on the safe side, folks will need to keep an eye out for flash flood advisories especially around poor drainage areas as the week unfolds.

Rainfall totals through 8 AM Wednesday
We’ll still see a few peaks of sunshine through the rest of the week. The warm and humid outlook will continue over the next several days as well. So the sunshine will only intensify the pop up thunderstorms which are likely to continue Wednesday, Thursday and Friday. Again, the timing and track of any storms are important factors in predicting potential drainage problems. It’s touch and go over the next few days, so be on the lookout for new flood warnings.

Gloomy weather continues through this weekend as another large frontal system will stall over the region this weekend. Drier air behind the front will bring some welcome calm weather next week.

5-Day Rainfall Totals

Bermuda High

Moisture increases with a southwest air flow as a weak cold front begins to move into the area today through tonight. Upper level disturbance will stall over our region on Saturday, although models show relative humidity values allowing for a drier air slot to briefly move into the area early this weekend. High pressure from the east will return to the area Sunday. However, models also indicate a more defined disturbance out of the west will make its way into our back yard Sunday. This will allow lingering moisture for the beginning of next week.

So we’ll see increasing clouds today as the cold front swings into place. Temperatures and possibility of precipitation will depend on the speed of the front. I’m thinking that we’ll see a few scattered thunderstorms and high temperatures today just a hair below 90.

We’ll see some early morning fog/haze Saturday. Moisture for the most part will stay in place Saturday, although POPs will be most likely in southern WV. Here we’re more likely to see cloudy skies, a very isolated shower and otherwise muggy and hot conditions for the rest of the day. Temps overnight will hold in the upper 60s

A similar pattern will unfold Sunday. Only this time moisture will approach from the northwest and rain will be most likely in the northwestern half of the state. Meanwhile broad high pressure will begin building from the east off Bermuda. This should eventually push any lingering moisture to the north, setting the stage for a hot & humid forecast. However since the speed at which the Bermuda high wins out is still in question, chance POPs will continue through the first part of next week.

The Bermuda High

Slip N Slide

Surviving two weeks without rain and a week of record high temperatures has been exhausting! It’s been grueling but we’ve had to resort to various watersports to stay cool. Today we find out if all this waiting around has been worth it. A low pressure cold front will cool things down into the upper 80s today. Thunderstorms will deliver some sorely needed rain to the area today and tonight.

After another foggy/hazy morning, expect increasing clouds and scattered rain showers and thunderstorms through most of today. Some locally heavy downpours are expected. Although it’s difficult to pinpoint when and where the strongest cells will develop, much of the heaviest rainfall will be realized west of I 79. Still, we can expect enough rainfall to create some ponding on roadways. Flash flooding is of little concern. I would watch for slick roadways which is common during summer months when oil builds up from a lack of rain but is washed away during a heavy rain.

We’ll see winds pick up today and tonight as the front passes. Otherwise we can expect the rain to make conditions more comfortable today and tomorrow. Look for temps in the mid 80s today and low to mid 60s overnight. A few leftover rain showers will linger on Saturday morning. High pressure will quickly send much of the moisture off the Atlantic coast leaving a sun/cloud mixand temps in the mid 80s for the remainder of the weekend.

We’ll start the workweek sunny and dry, but more wet weather is on tap for Tuesday and for much of next week.

The Thin Brown Line

Well sports fans in case you didn’t know, the hottest days so far this year are here! Daytime mercury is screaming towards the hundred degree mark and still rising. Meanwhile broad upper level high pressure is parked over the region setting the stage for very clear sky conditions over the next couple of days. You might not know it, but that high pressure is blocking a good deal of moisture from the air overhead. This severely limits our chances of rain for the next several days.

So we’ve got hazy and hot conditions on tap for the rest of the work week. Air quality advisories may even pop up. Some folks such as the elderly and asthmatics may find simply breathing difficult. But what’s nice is that the clear conditions will also cool things down enough to allow nighttime temps in the upper 60s and a few relatively cool early mornings. So folks will still be able to accomplish any necessary yard work and other outdoor activities before afternoon temperatures inevitably get out of hand.

By Thursday afternoon, moisture, along with the sun’s heat may produce a few scattered thunderstorms across the state. However weather models seem to agree that the next real chance of rain will be Friday into Saturday as the next front swings into the area. We’re shooting for at least .25 inch of rain to kick off next weekend. Look for sunny and dry conditions in time for Saturday and Sunday. In fact, I’d say that this weekend might be the ideal time to squeeze in a float trip as we will have hopefully picked up some rain, raising water levels enough so that our boats won’t scrape the bottom for half the trip! No matter what your plans are, be sure to bring lots of drinking water with you!