Friday, July 29, 2011

    Southeastern Texas prepares for Tropical Storm Don to make landfall a few miles north of Brownsville tonight. Don was heading WNW at 14 MPH, still about 250 miles SE of Corpus Christi this morning. Max sustained winds were at 50 MPH. Pressure holding steady at 1000 millibars. Some strengthening is still expected before Don makes landfall. Storm surge will raise water levels near the coast by as much as 2 feet. Large damaging waves will accompany the storm as it makes landfall overnight. Numerous strong rain showers and thunderstorms will drop 3 to 5 inches of sorely-needed rain, mainly across southeastern Texas.

    High pressure ridging breaks down across the east today...heat advisory is in effect for nearly all counties west of I-79 and extreme eastern portions of the Eastern Panhandle/DC/Baltimore today. Heat and humidity will put heat index close to 100 this afternoon. Broken bands of showers and storms affect northern WV, PA & MD his afternoon & tonight. A few storms will linger into Saturday. Clearing skies with highs around 90 for the rest of the weekend.

    Hot and humid air mass ahead of a cold frontal boundary will trigger broken thunderstorm activity this afternoon. Scattered thunderstorms now firing across the southern Great Lakes will spread into the Ohio Valley & Mid-Atlantic states this afternoon & evening. Broken storm cells could produce strong damaging winds and heavy downpours, mainly across the northern half of our state tonight into early Saturday. Temps will be in the upper 60s tonight.

    Cold front will get hung up in the mountains Saturday, bringing chances for showers and thunder further south. Few scattered showers/storms will continue to fire across southern WV and southwestern VA Saturday afternoon. Otherwise, more stable air will gradually fill in behind the frontal boundary late Saturday. Moist ground will allow widespread fog development Saturday night.

    This will set us up for a tranquil, sunny Sunday...Highs this weekend will be around 90. Lows will fall to the low to mid 60s. Forecast will stay warm and dry with highs around 90 next week. Chance for rain/thunder returns by midweek.

Convective outlook today courtesy of SPC. Click to enlarge.

Thursday, July 28, 2011

    In the Gulf of Mexico...Tropical Storm Don has triggered warnings for extreme southeastern Texas and will make landfall Friday night. Satellite imagery and hurricane hunter data depicts Don in the Central Gulf, 500 miles ESE of Corpus Christi, heading WNW at 10 MPH. Max sustained winds are 40 MPH, minimum central pressure is 1000 millibars. Some strengthening is expected over the next 24-48 hours in the warm Gulf waters. The primary threat associated with Don will be tropical storm-perhaps cat 1 force winds.

    Meanwhile, upper level disturbances ride east along the westerlies, producing scattered showers and thunderstorms in the Northern Plains and Great Lakes today and tonight. But high pressure hangs onto the Mid Atlantic states, keeping our forecast dry through Friday evening. Rain/storms will stay just north of our area!

    Warm air lifting north ahead of a cold front will put highs right around 90 this afternoon. Increasing clouds are expected today and tonight as that high pressure ridge breaks down over the east. Lows tonight will only fall to around 70 with all the warm air mixing in. Some fog will develop overnight but will be isolated the deepest valleys. With dew points gradually increasing to around 70, expect more humidity to build into the air by Friday morning.

    Hot and humid Friday under partly to mostly cloudy skies. Highs Friday will be in the mid 90s. Heat index will make it feel like the upper 90s. A few places may see heat indices in the triple digits again. All that heat along with super-moist upper air mass will trigger showers and thunderstorms as early as Friday evening. Heavy downpours are possible Friday night & Saturday. Dry air awaits behind the front. But the timing of just how quickly things dry out for the rest of the weekend will depend on whether the front gets hung up in the mountains Saturday. Current thinking is that at the very latest, things will clear out north to south by Sunday afternoon. Highs will stay in the upper 80s/low 90s through the weekend & into next week.

850 mb map courtesy of Unysis Weather shows hot air returning to the area Friday night.

Wednesday, July 27, 2011

    Tropical weather outlook...After a fairly quiet few days in the lower latitudes, a few areas of interest have developed. A tropical wave near the Yucatan Peninsula,  22N, 85W is beginning to show strong potential for tropical development in the next 12-24 hours. Forecasters say that the system has an 80% chance of developing into a tropical storm in the next day as it moves WNW at 15 MPH. Air Force Reserve hurricane hunters will be deployed to investigate this system later today.

    Elsewhere, an area of strong storms and rain showers has developed a few hundred miles east of St. Lucia and the Windward Islands. Weak cyclonic flow has been observed by GOES satellite. Forecasters are closely watching this system for further tropical development. Elsewhere, tropical development is not expected.

    Meanwhile, back on the mainland...Surface high pressure kept a strong hold on our area overnight. Temperatures fell into the low 60s & dew points fell into the upper 50s last night. This made for another cool, comfortable overnight/morning. Early morning fog burned off quickly, leaving clear, mostly sunny skies for the rest of today. Temps will hit the mid/upper 80s this afternoon...then low 60s with patchy fog again tonight.

    High pressure will keep our forecast dry & tranquil through tonight, Thursday & most of the day Friday. Warm front will traverse the area Thursday. Highs Thursday will be in the mid 90s. More humidity is on tap as well. Heat indices will fall just below advisory criteria. But things will be plenty hot for the second half of the work week.

    Cold front & deeper moisture will trigger scattered weekend storms. Showers & storms could ramp up as early as Friday afternoon but our best chances for thunder will be Saturday. Any weekend storms that do fire could produce heavy downpours. Forecast will stay hot & humid with a few scattered storms to start next week.

Tuesday, July 26, 2011

    Surface high pressure brings sunshine & some needed relief from the oppressive humidity. A weak cold front will bring increasing cloud cover, showers and a few isolated thunderstorms this afternoon/evening. Isolated thunderstorm activity will likely be limited to our northern zones before clearing around sunset. More fog is forecast tonight, with lows around 60.

    Forecast will stay dry with plenty of sunshine Wednesday and Thursday. More heat & humidity will infiltrate our area by Thursday. Dew points will climb back into the upper 60s. In many places heat indices will come very close to 100. Heat advisories will likely return to the mountain state Thursday and Friday.

    Another cool wave will bring better chance for showers and storms late Friday into the weekend. Heat indices will stay in the mid/upper 90s over the weekend. We'll keep a good chance for showers and storms Saturday. A few light showers may also linger into Sunday. Things dry our for Monday. High temps will stay in the upper 80/low 90s for the first part of next week.

Radar looks good. Expecting thicker cloud cover & a few iso storms later today

Monday, July 25, 2011

    Humid today, temperatures in the mid to upper 80s with a sun/cloud mix. Few scattered showers & isolated storms affect the area today ahead of a cold front swinging across the area from the Great Lakes. Clearing is expected overnight, mainly to the north as surface high pressure gains control. Temps fall into the low to mid 60s tonight with thick fog on tap Tuesday morning.

   More sunshine is on tap for Tuesday & Wednesday. Highs will be in the mid/upper 80s again. Lows will stay in the low/mid 60s. Things will be less humid Tuesday and Wednesday with high pressure in control & dew points in the low/mid 60s. Forecast will stay tranquil through midweek. Most of the showers & storm activity will stay north of our area for much of this week. Dry forecast should hang on Thursday. Then more moisture & brings chance for isolated showers & storms sometime Friday.

    We'll turn the temperatures up a few degrees as we finish the work week. Thursday's highs will be in the mid 95. Humidity will return to the forecast also. Low to mid 90s are on tap Friday and Saturday. Best chance for showers and storms will accompany the heat Saturday/Saturday night. A few leftover showers linger into Sunday.

Friday, July 22, 2011

    Heat advisory is still in effect for our area until 8 PM tonight. Widespread excessive heat warnings AND air quality alerts are also in effect for many neighboring counties. High pressure still holding strong across the east, making it hazy hot and humid once again today. Dew points are still in the low to mid 70s & visibility is reduced to 2 or 3 three miles.

    Forecast stays dry for much of today with sun/cloud mix. Scattered cloud cover doing what it can to inhibit maximum solar radiation receipts today. Temps sitting in the mid 80s in Morgantown at the moment. Heat index sits at 92 F at noon. Forecast calls for highs in the mid to upper 90s with heat indices in the 100-105 range again by this evening.

    A weak cool front from the Great Lakes will brush mainly the northern sections of our from the Great Lakes this evening into tonight. Ahead of the front, daytime heating and nearly saturated air will trigger a few isolated storms as early as mid to late afternoon. With plenty of available moisture, heavy rainfall can be expected from any storms tonight. Tranquil overnight with lows falling to the upper 60s/low 70s. More patchy valley fog will develop after midnight, into Saturday.

    Just a few degrees cooler Saturday & Sunday. But things will still be plenty humid with highs in the low to mid 90s. Caution should still be exercised when engaging in outdoor activity over the weekend.

    We'll keep the chance for a few scattered showers & storms during the day Saturday. Deeper moisture & northwest air flow will bring more widespread thunderstorm activity Sunday & Monday. And again any storms that do fire would have the potential to produce heavy rain & water problems such as ponding on roadways. As much as 1.5 to 2 inches of new rainfall could occur, mainly west of I 79 over the weekend.

    Temperatures will regulate just a little bit as we start next week. Highs will be in the upper 80s/low 90s. Dew points in the mid to upper 60s are in store during the Monday. Chance for scattered showers and storms will get squashed by slightly cooler & drier air Monday night. Forecast will stay dry Tuesday next week through at least midweek. More hot air will lift north Wednesday, keeping the forecast hot and humid into the end of the work week next week.

3 Day rainfall map courtesy of HPC. Click to enlarge.

Thursday, July 21, 2011

Oppressive heat wave sprawls across more than 1/3 of the nation today. Tropical air will reach way into the northeast through Friday. Heat-related health problems will continue to make headlines, especially across the northeast. Things to keep in mind: Heat is the number one weather related killer in the United States! White clothing reflects more sunlight than darker. Your body will need at least 2 liters of water daily in weather like this-that's if you remain stationary. Folks rugged enough to engage in outdoor activity need to double their water intake (4-7 liters of water). Drugs and alcohol DO magnify the harmful effects of the heat and sun. Don't forget about the safety needs of children, the elderly and pets! For more information on excessive heat safety, visit the red cross at

Some moisture & associated shower activity will creep into very southern West Virginia but will be squashed into western Virginia later today...Otherwise, the hazy hot and humid forecast continues. High pressure keeps a tight hold on the south and Mid-Atlantic states today. Aloft, things remain fairly stagnant, allowing for plenty of sunshine to reach the surface. High temperatures today will be in the mid to upper 90s. But with dew points in the low to mid 70s, heat indices will again reach well into triple digits today. Excessive heat warnings and heat advisories for our area are in place again today from noon to 8 PM. Lows tonight will stay in the low to mid 70s. Just like the past few nights, a calm overnight under generally clear skies will allow patchy fog to develop into Friday morning.

Dome of high pressure will slide east, onto the Atlantic coast Friday. Something reminiscent of a cold front (it's not cold at all) will sag south out of the Great Lakes into Friday evening. Although dynamic forcing along the frontal boundary will be weak, the nearly saturated air & daytime heating could trigger a few isolated showers/storms Friday evening into Friday night. Given the tropical nature of this air mass, any storms would be slow-moving & produce heavy rainfall amounts.

The weekend forecast does not deviate much from our short-term forecast. Daytime temperatures will still reach the low/mid 90s. Overnight lows will be around 70. Dew points will also stay in the upper 60/low 70s. Again, caution should be used, day and night. There's nothing like heat stroke to ruin your weekend...

Deeper moisture will make its way into our area over the weekend. That along with a few weak upper level disturbances, plenty of solar radiation & daytime heating could trigger more scattered storms over the weekend. Chance for afternoon & evening showers and storms will continue Saturday, Sunday and Monday. Anything to break the heat...

Another cool wave will dip into the southern Great Lakes, Mid-Atlantic states and the Northeast by Tuesday. Although this will provide some relief, plenty of hot air will linger into next week. Highs will still reach the mid to upper 80s, which is pretty much on target for this time of year. A few scattered storms will threaten for at least the first part of next week.

On the tropical front...Bret continues to dissipate in the middle of the Atlantic. Tropical Storm Cindy has developed about 975 miles ENE of Bermuda. Cindy will not threaten the US as she will continue on a NNE heading, away from mainland.

Elsewhere...Hurricane Dora has been upgraded to Category 4 in the Eastern Pacific. Winds are steady at 120 knots. Pressure is 942 millibars. Dora has developed nicely, showing a well-defined eye wall, less banding and a more symmetrical pattern. Conditions will allow Dora to intensify over the next 12 hours. She will continue her northwestward track & approach the southern tip of Baja with peak intensity in the next 48 hours.

Wednesday, July 20, 2011

Tropical Weather Update

    National Hurricane Center is still issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Bret. The storm is currently situated 290 miles south-east of Cape Hatteras. GOES satellite imagery & Air Force Reserve hurricane hunters' data indicates that the storm has remained relatively stable over the past 12 hours or so. At last report, winds were at 45 knots, pressure was steady at 1001 millibars. Data also indicates dry air has is steadily mixing into the storm, draining Bret's convective energy. Upper level wind shear is forecast to further weaken the storm over the next 48 hours.

    Forecasters predict that Bret will continue on a north-northeastward track, fully dissipating sometime Friday. Bret will continue to disrupt sea surface conditions within a respective radius. Coastal warnings stretch from the southern tip of Florida to the Delmarva Peninsula. Any beach-goers this week/weekend might be disappointed with the high surf. Debris and aquatic life such as jellyfish are known to wash ashore when storms brush this close to the Atlantic coast. This, along with the high surf is usually enough to creep most beach-goers out of the water.

    Elsewhere in the area of interest has developed 440 miles east of Bermuda. Forecasters predict that the system may become better organized & has a 60% chance of becoming tropical in the next 48 hours. Will report later this week as the system progresses northeastward at 20 MPH.

Areas of showers & storms ejecting westward off the west coast of Africa, about 5N of the equator are also beginning to show potential for tropical development. Although it is still very early in the season, tropical activity appears to be slightly above average this year. Sea surface temperatures across the Caribbean Gulf of Mexico and parts of the Atlantic are in the low to mid 80s. Will keep an eye on conditions & report any new developments.

    In the East Pacific...Dora has been upgraded to Category 1 Hurricane. Located roughly 15N 112W; winds are 70 knots, sea surface pressure is 981 millibars.  Dora will threaten the southern tip of Baja in the next 60 hours. Forecasters predict Dora will  reach peak intensity Friday, continue on a more or less northwestward track & further weaken over the weekend.

    High pressure builds across the Great Lakes, the Mississippi & Ohio Valleys today...into the Mid-Atlantic states by Friday. Hazy, hot & humid forecast triggers widespread heat advisories/warnings through the weekend. Chance for a few rumbles of thunder lasts from Friday through Monday as well. Cooler air filters in Tuesday of next week.

   For today...strong high pressure brings lots of hot air & very high dew points into our area. More widespread sunshine is forecast for today through the end of the workweek. Heat advisories have been expanded to reflect heat indices reaching 100 degrees. A calm overnight is expected with mainly clear skies and a low around 70. Patchy river valley fog will develop again overnight, burning off by mid-morning Thursday.

    Forecast for Thursday includes sunshine, highs in the mid/upper 90s & heat indices closing in on 105. Although our forecast will remain generally dry, the near saturated tropical air mass may trigger an isolated storm or two in the afternoon/evening.

    Highs Friday will be about the same as Thursday, mid/upper 90s, heat indices around 100. High pressure will begin to slide east. Meanwhile, a weak cold front will sag south from the Great Lakes late Friday. This may trigger an isolated storm Friday evening/night. Any storms would break the brutal heat leftover from Friday afternoon.

    More low level moisture will gradually seep northward from the southeastern US this weekend. This will trigger scattered showers and storms Saturday, Sunday & Monday. Daytime highs over the weekend will still reach the mid 90s. Overnight lows will stay in the low 70s, depending on how much cloud cover develops over the weekend. Will refine the weekend forecast tomorrow & Friday.

    Scattered showers & storms will linger into Monday. Highs will peak around 90. Cooler air will filter into our area Tuesday of next week. Temperatures will reflect a more seasonal trend, ranging from the upper 60s to the mid 80s.
850 millibars map courtesy of Unysis Weather depicts cooler air mixing in by next Tuesday morning. But first, we have to survive the weekend.

Tuesday, July 19, 2011

    Active weather pattern continues...Heat advisory remains in effect until 8 PM this evening for our westernmost counties along the Ohio River. However, residual cloud cover will keep temperatures modest today. Humidity will stick around & highs will be in the upper 80s. A few weak disturbances, daytime heating and moist air mass will contribute to upper level instability across the Ohio Valley & Appalachians this afternoon/evening. Scattered late day thunderstorms with potential for damaging winds, lightning & heavy downpours are expected across our area. Skies will stay mostly cloudy overnight. Fog/mist will also sink in. Lows in the mid/upper 60s.

    By Wednesday, our frontal boundary will become diffuse and retreat northward. Meanwhile a strong continental tropical high pressure ridge will begin to slide eastward from the Central Plains. Forecast will turn generally dry but still very hot and humid. More widespread heat advisories are definitely in the cards for later this week. A few fragmented pop up storms are also not out of the question. However, chances for real rain look rather slim until sometime Saturday.

    Heat and humidity will be the real headlines as we finish out the week. High temperatures will be in the mid to upper 90s. Nights will stay warm, with lows around 70. Heat indices will climb into triple digits Thursday & Friday, especially for everybody west of I 79...Oppressive heat will continue into the weekend for the lowlands. High pressure ridge will gradually erode over the weekend. We'll keep a slight chance for afternoon thunderstorms Saturday Sunday and Monday. Cooler air and better rain chances arrive early next week.

850 millibars map valid Thursday evening, courtesy of Unysis Weather. Oppressive heat wave will stretch well into the northeastern states through the end of the week.

Monday, July 18, 2011

    High pressure maintains control over much of the forecast area today under mostly cloudy skies. Cold front will sag south, bringing chance for scattered storms tonight into Tuesday. Storms could produce strong winds & heavy rains, especially for the northern half of our state. Very hot & humid forecast returns Wednesday with heat indices closing in on 100 through the end of the week.

    Highs today will be in the low 90s under partly to mostly cloudy skies. Cold front in the vicinity of the Great Lakes will sag south into our area tonight, into Tuesday. Westerly flow aloft, plenty of daytime heating will mix with that frontal boundary as it progresses south triggering the threat for severe weather tonight for our northern zones. Strong gusty winds, hail, heavy rainfall will accompany those storm cells as they move southward tonight. Tornado development is also not out of the realm of possibility. Tune in to local TV/radio tonight to stay informed in the event of severe weather. Breezy & cloudy overnight with periods of rain & storms. Lows will be in the low 70s.

    Forecast will stay muggy & generally cloudy with dew points in the low 70s Tuesday. Lingering moisture & northwest flow will keep periods of rain & a few storms in the forecast throughout the day. Highs will be around 90. High pressure & hot air from the Midwest will begin to build into the eastern US late Tuesday. Chance for convective storms will gradually diminish by Wednesday.

    Attention will turn to broad high pressure building into our area from the Midwest by Wednesday. Forecast will stay generally dry & sunny into Friday. But conditions will be hazy, hot and humid with heat indices reaching close to 100 degrees both Wednesday & Thursday. Even the overnight lows will stay in the low to mid 70s. These conditions will not only make for an uncomfortable forecast; things could become downright dangerous. This kind of heat combined with high humidity values can make it difficult for your body to sweat, inhibiting the cooling effects of evaporation off the skin. Remember what we learned in health class about the effects of dehydration, heat exhaustion & other heat-related maladies. Keeping the body cool & hydrated is of the utmost importance. Will update later this week if any heat-related warnings pop up on the grid.

    Westerly flow aloft will force hot continental tropical air well into the northeastern states by Thursday/Friday. Heat-related health problems will become more widespread later this week. Heat wave could be blamed for a number of health problems & deaths, especially in the northeast. Folks in the northeast are especially vulnerable to heat-related health problems because temps usually stay fairly mild & they rarely use AC.

    A few weak disturbances will keep the slight chance for a few pop up showers & storms each afternoon/evening for Friday, Saturday & Sunday. Temperatures look like they will moderate back into the low 90s.

     In the Atlantic Ocean...A tropical storm warnings has been issued for Tropical Storm Bret, currently 65 miles north of the Bahamas, east Florida. Maximum sustained winds are 45 knots. Gusts up to 55 knots. Minimum pressure is 1000 millibars. Bret is forecast to move NNE at 5 knots an hour. Some intensification over the next 24 hours or so. Bret will most likely weaken due to upper level wind shear.

Friday, July 15, 2011

    Lots of warm moist Gulf air lifts north today into the weekend. Convective storms may breakout further south later today. Fragmented showers & storms will spread north into North/Central West Virginia & the higher elevations Saturday & again Sunday afternoon/evening. Warmer temperatures and higher humidity will make a comeback over the weekend. Heat indices will eventually reach the mid/upper 90s next week. Weak cold front may bring a few chance showers Tuesday next week.

    For today, not much chance for thunder across much of our coverage area. Only exception is along southwestern portions of our state, due to slightly higher temps & more upper level moisture. Elsewhere, mostly sunny skies & highs in the low/mid 80s make for a pleasant end to the work week. Increasing cloud cover may hinder the lighting effects of a full moon. Otherwise, conditions remain cool & calm overnight with lows in the mid to upper 50s.

    Temperatures & humidity will be on the increase Saturday as more warm, moist air lifts north. Upper level instability increases with daytime heating. Chance for showers and storms will spread north, into Central West Virginia & into the mountain counties Saturday evening & again on Sunday. Considering the near-saturated air, any weekend storms-although short-lived, could dump heavy amounts of rain. The way these humid, summer-time systems go, much of our forecast area may skate through the weekend on a dry note. Again, best chances for precip will be further south.

    Mercury will continue to rise Sunday, Monday and through next week. Dew points will stay in the upper 60s/low 70s. This hints at heat indices beyond the mid & upper 90s by midweek. Tuesday, a weak cold front will head east across the southern Great Lakes, weakening as it crosses the Ohio River Valley. We may see a few pop up showers Tuesday into Wednesday. But the bigger headline will be the hot air mass pressing eastwards from the Midwest next week.

    NWS hazard assessment map through July 28 depicts excessive heat (outlined in RED). Conditions in our area will fall below excessive heat guidelines & significant heat-related problems are not expected to develop. Click to enlarge.

Thursday, July 14, 2011

    Surface high pressure maintains a steady hold on the eastern US today & tonight. Forecast will stay dry with cooler temps & less humidity tonight into Friday. High pressure will slide east, allowing for more moisture to return late Friday. Forecast turns warmer & more humid with slight chance for a shower/thunderstorm for the weekend. Hot & humid with pop up storms next week.

    Just a few high cirrus clouds draped acoss the northern zones today. Otherwise, lots of sunshine, mild temps & less humidity in store today, all thanks to surface high pressure. We can open the windows & give the AC a rest tonight. Forecast will stay mild & calm. Lows will be in the upper 50s/low 60s.

    Heavy tropical air with higher moisture content will lift north into our area late Friday. More humidity & warmer daytime temps are on tap for the weekend & next week. As that moist Gulf air mass lifts north, a few afternoon & evening storms could develop. So we have to keep a slight chance for precip from south to north late Saturday into Sunday as that tropical air inundates the Appalachians. Meanwhile. upper level ridging & dry air aloft may keep our forecast dry enough to forego any widespread precip until late Sunday. So we have a sun/cloud mix & a green light for outdoor activities this weekend. Just throw an umbrella or light rain jacket in with your gear, especially futher south where convective storms are more likely to fire. Temperatures this weekend will range from the mid 60s to the mid/upper 80s.

    Hot tropical air mass parked over the Midwest will move east, into our area as we start next week. We'll switch on the AC again as the heat index reaches the mid/upper 90s. Dew points will reach the upper 60s & 70s. Daytime highs will hit the mid 90s by Wednesday. Overnight lows will struggle to get below 70. A few energy pulses could trigger a few afternoon/evening storms Tuesday. Forecast stay very hot and humid with afternoon & evening storms possible through much of the second half of next week. High precipital water values & tropical nature of next week's air mass could bring chance for locally heavy downpours next week. Will report on this later!

850mb image courtesy of Unysis Weather depcits hot cT air mass spreading into the east timed for Tuesday, next week!

Wednesday, July 13, 2011

    Cold front progresses southward today with slight chance for a few afternoon storms to fire, mainly in the southern half of our state. High pressure & slightly cooler air will begin to filter into the Mid-Atlantic states Thursday into Friday. Moisture returns late Friday. We'll keep the weekend forecast mostly sunny & mainly dry. A few shortwave disturbances may trigger a few isolated thunderstorms over the weekend. We'll also start a gradual warming trend into 80s/low 90s Saturday through next week.

    For today...Clouds beginning to break up, especially north. Further south, daytime heating and lingering moisture will trigger a few afternoon storms for TN, KY, VA & southernmost parts of West Virginia. Highs today will be in the in the mid 80s. High pressure & cooler air aloft will begin to move into our area, setting us up for calm but foggy overnight. Overnight lows will be in the mid/upper 50s.

    A leftover shower or two may still linger around Charleston/Huntington tomorrow morning. Otherwise, high pressure & plenty of sunshine is on deck for Thursday. Highs will be in the low to mid 80s but lower dew points & less humidity will make for a more comfortable daytime & night time forecast. Lows will fall to around 60 Thursday night, with patchy fog.

    Big broad high pressure ridge over the eastern US will slowly erode while low level moisture returns sometime Friday. So Friday will start under mostly sunny skies, turning to mostly cloudy as the day progresses. Highs will stay modest, in the mid 80s.

    Warmer temps & higher humidity values will raise the heat index into the low/mid 90s. Daytime highs will hit the mid to upper 80s Saturday, then temps will reach just a degree or two higher each day than the previous. Low level moisture & daytime heating will most likely trigger a few weekend thunder cells. Hazy & hot forecast with mostly sunny skies & a few pop up thunderstorms for next week.

    Lots of continental tropical air will continue to spread north, invading the Midwest this week. This trend will continue into next week as well. Hot air will eventually ride along a westerly flow & reach the eastern US late this weekend/next week. Hazard map courtesy of NWS

Monday, July 11, 2011

    Hazy hot & humid again today & tomorrow with highs in the low/mid 90s. Extra precautions should be taken today to ensure health and comfort. Be aware of the symptoms & treatement of heat-related illness...A weak frontal boundary accompanied by plenty of available moisture will dive out of the Great Lakes, into the Ohio River Valley today & tonight. Few showers & storms could develop in our area with this system. We'll keep a slight chance for showers & thunder Tuesday & Wednesday. Then dry with surface high pressure for Thursday & Friday. More humid with slight chance for possibility of precip for next weekend.

    Bulk of the severe weather will unfold around the southern Great Lakes during the day today. But plenty of daytime heating & low level moisture will combine with the westerly flow to allow for restrenghtening storms in our vicinity & along the western Appalachians. Damaging winds, hail & heavy rain are also possible this afternoon into tonight. Flash flooding concerns are also not out of the question-especially along poor drainage areas. Temperatures will stay muggy, in the low 70s with some fog overnight.

    Another weak cold front will cross the area Tuesday. Model guidance leaves room for improvement on the timing and track of that system. Either way, a few showers & storms will accompany the frontal passage. Still Tuesday's forecast does not allow for much relief from the oppressive heat & humidity. Dewpoints in the low 70s, high temperatures in the low/mid 90s will indeed make for another steamy & hot forecast.

    Lingering showers Wednesday as leftover moisture gradually exits.Temperatures will return to a more seasonal feel with highs in the mid/upper 80s. Lows will get down into the low 60s.

    Surface high pressure will make for a dry, generally sunny forecast Thursday & Friday. Daytime highs will be in the mid to upper 80s. Lows on the average will be in the low 60s. Dewpoints will bottom out in the 50s. But another wave of moisture will affect our area this weekend. So the forecast will turn humid again with slight chance of showers & storms Saturday, Sunday & into Monday. Hoping for partly cloudy skies & a brief shower if any.

Friday, July 8, 2011

    Very moist upper level disturbance affects the Mid-Atlantic states today. Precipital water content in the order of two inches brings chance for enhanced rainfall associated with microbursts & semi-organized cells into this afternoon & evening. Hydrologic forecast falls just below flash flood guidance. But needs monitoring for changes throughout the day, especially in our eastern mountains.

    Modest storm clusters with periods of strong gusty winds, hail & locally heavy downpours are expected to eject into the Eastern Panhandle & VA/DC area later today. Threat for isolated severe weather will also develop in parts of the northeast this evening.

    Rain & cloud cover provide a nice break from the mundane summertime forecast. Temps still manage the low 80s before sundown. Expect clearing skies, widespread fog development & overnight with lows in the low 60s. High pressure & dry air will dominate the forecast Saturday. However, broken cloud clutter & fragmented showers could linger into early Saturday, especially along the WV/VA border. Temps Saturday will spike in the upper 80s, then calm Saturday night with lows 60s.

    Hot & dry continental air mass will make its way into the eastern US Sunday into the first part of next week. Things will really heat up Sunday with clear skies & lots of sunshine on tap. Highs in the low 90s are likely Sunday. Low to mid 90s are possible Monday. Cold front will cross the Central Plains Tuesday,  bringing chance of rain & thunder Tuesday into Wednesday next week.

850 millibar map depicts impending heatwave Sunday/Monday. Courtesy, Unysis Weather

Thursday, July 7, 2011

    Upper level moisture will be on the increase as a trough & weak frontal boundary affect our area tonight into Friday. Showers and a few storms on tap for tongiht & Friday. We'll kick up our heels for a nice weekend. Forecast will stay hot & dry with lots of sunshine into the first part of nex week. We'll get wet with another cold front Tuesday.

    Typical summertime forecast today...Mostly sunny, hot & kinda humid with highs settling in just below 90. Upper level instability along the frontal boundary could trigger showers and storms by mid/late afternoon, especially in the northern & mountain counties. Elsewhere, showers & thunder of the isolated variety will begin to fire overnight. We'll stay cloudy and warm overnight with lows in the mid 60s.

    Front will get hung up over our area Friday. We'll keep cloudy skies, scattered showers and thunder in the forecast during the day. Plenty of available moisture will accompany the system. There is a good chance that any storms that do develop Friday will dump lots of rain, although no significant water hazards are foreseen. Friday night will stay cloudy with lingering showers and isolated thunder into early Saturday morning. Lows will fall into the lower 60s.

    By Saturday morning, high pressure will quickly kick out the low level moisture leftover from Friday night. A few scattered clouds will linger, allowing for some shade during the day Saturday. But we still have lots of sunshine is on tap this weekend. Highs Saturday will be in the mid to upper 80s. Sunday will be the best for outdoor recreation, swimming & catching rays. Things will heat up Sunday and Monday. Lots of solar radiation, highs in the low 90s always necessitates the friendly reminder for folks to be aware of the effects of dehydration, heat exhaustion and other heat related health problems. Always stay hydrated. Take lots of breaks, seek shade and check on loved ones...Looks like we'll have another chance for rain with a cold front Tuesday of next week.

    In the East Pacific Ocean...NHC has given the highlighted area nearly a 100% chance of tropical cyclone development in the next 24-48 hours. Elsewhere in the Atlantic, cloudiness and moderate instability lend to a few areas of interest but no significant development is expected at this time.

Wednesday, July 6, 2011

    Another hot day with temperatures peaking just a hair below 90. Most of the area will stay dry with lots of sunshine today. Weak upper level trough and lingering moisture may produce a few showers with potential for locally heavy downpours in some of the higher elevations and further south. Generally clear skies overnight will quickly lead to loss of enough daytime heating to limit thunderstorm activity across the area this evening into tonight. Lows will be in the low 60s.

     We start Thursday mostly sunny and dry. Highs will again be real close to 90. Another weak cold front will arrive late Thursday and get hung up over our area into Friday. Scattered showers & storms could ramp up Thursday afternoon & into the overnight hours. Locally heavy downpours are possible, especially in our mountain counties and further south. Overnight lows will be similar to the past few nights.

    Threat for leftover showers and mountain storms will still exist for much of the day Friday. Temperatures will be more on the mild side during the day Friday. All the cloud cover will limit much of the direct solar radiation. Mild into Friday night/ Saturday AM with gradual clearing skies by Saturday.

    Dry air and surface high pressure gain control over the area Saturday. This will allow for lots of sunshine & temps well into the upper 80s both Saturday and Sunday. Forecast will heat up for Monday. Highs will creep past the 90 degree mark ahead of a cold front. Dry air mass will gradually erode late Monday into Tuesday of next week.

National hazard assessment map, valid July 8th-19th. Click to enlage. Courtesy NWS

Tuesday, July 5, 2011

    Hazy & humid forecast continues with near normal temperatures...Meanwhile, a fairly well-defined boundary continues between surface high pressure to the northwest and an upper level trough with moist, unstable air to the south today. Thus, we can expect mainly dry conditions for the northern/western half of our state. Highs will be in the mid 80s under clearing skies. Further south & east, afternoon downpours and the potential for damaging winds along with embedded thunder are likely.

    Lows tonight will be in the low 60s & upper 50s. A calm overnight will lead to widespread fog development for Wednesday morning. Otherwise it's partly cloudy, warmer & mainly dry Wednesday. Highs will be right around 90. Upper level trough will slowly push south but lots of moisture will still linger in southern parts of our state. A few showers and some convective storms are still possible in some of our mountain counties & further south.

    Forecast stays somewhat dry & humid under partly cloudy skies Thursday. Highs will be in the upper 80s. Deeper moisture will arrive Friday, along with better rain chances. Temperatures will stay moderate, with highs in the mid to upper 80s. Lows will be in the low 60s.  Forecast will shape up nicely for the weekend and into the first part of next week. Will update later.

Friday, July 1, 2011

    Weekend & Independence Day forecast has really perked up since Wednesday! We'll have some time for fun in the sun but will still be vulnerable to a few scattered showers and isolated thunder, mainly Saturday night/Sunday. Things will dry out nicely for the 4th of July. Looks like we'll even stay dry for much of next week...until another cold front arrives Thursday.

    Surface high pressure remains in control for the rest of today. We'll see lots of sunshine again today with highs in the upper 80s. Weather will stay tranquil overnight with lows around 60. Valley fog will develop tonight into early Saturday.

    That high will shift east of our area Saturday, allowing plenty of warm moist air to mix in. Dewpoints will rise into the mid 60s again, so things will feel more humid than recent days. We'll see a fair amount of sunshine during the day. But try not to be disapointed by increased cloud cover Saturday afternoon & evening. Highs will fall just short of 90-depending on how much cloud cover is realized.

    Cold frontal passage will hold off until Saturday night/Sunday. This will set the stage for showers & thunderstorms to creep up, especially Sunday. A few storms could potentially produce heavy rainfall. However, a little rain on the lawn may be just what we need before a bunch of half drunk people ignite all kinds of aerial pyrotechnics! Anyway, highs Sunday will again fall a degree or two below 90. Lows will be in the low 60s.

    Rain and heaviest cloud cover will exit south of the area by Sunday night. We'll be left will dry, generally clear & somewhat cooler conditions Monday through Wednesday. Cold front crosses the area Thursday. We'll dry out again for Friday & next weekend!

Today's pic shows 850 millibars courtesy of Unysis Weather. If you can't take the heat, stay out of the Southwest...and Midwest! Very warm & moist air mass will lead to development of multicell storms across parts of MO, IL, IN, OH & MI Saturday.