Sunday, March 28, 2010

The Boomerang

Weak high pressure built into the area Friday, giving us a pleasant end to a flippy floppy week of weather. Despite the fact that temps were a bit on the cool side, it was not a bad way to end the last Saturday in March. However, strong low pressure has since moved into the area from the Ohio Valley, providing yet another soggy Sunday. Widespread and numerous showers will continue through early Monday morning. New rainfall amounts should be held in check under .25 inches and we should even see a lull in the action for a few hours early Monday morning.

The brief pause in precipitation will last long enough to give the dog a well-deserved bathroom break before rain showers return sometime Monday. Wrap around moisture will stall over north central West Virginia, and rain showers will gradually diminish by Tuesday evening. The low pressure system will quickly exit to the northeast, but expect a few lingering clouds and temperatures on the cool side until Wednesday. Nighttime temps will continue to check in just a few degrees above freezing for the next few nights.

Once we endure the cool/moist Monday & Tuesday, the rest of next week will really boomerang! Look for deep ridging to provide massive high pressure over the entire eastern half of the U.S. Temps will reach the mid to upper 60s Wednesday. Nighttime temps will even out in the low to mid 40s. Skies will be for the most part cloudless and temps will soar into the 70s and 80s by next weekend!! So we'll end March on a cool/moist note; we start April with wonderful weather! Attention will turn to fire hazards by Saturday. Take every precaution if you plan to build an outdoor fire, especially by next weekend. Precip from our west will arrive next Sunday/Monday to douse any leftover couch fires. Till then, happy trails!!

The bull that resides atop Dorsey's Knob, Morgantown, WV. Courtesy of Contact BOPARC at (304) 296-8356 for more info.

Tuesday, March 23, 2010

People Get Rained On

We’re in for a cool, damp night tonight. Breezy ridge tops and a few light snow showers are possible in higher elevations. Otherwise, skies will clear overnight tonight as the current low pressure system leaves the area before dawn. High pressure will build in from the southwest as we get set to start our hump day. Any lingering moisture will be swept away leaving Wednesday dry and sunny with highs in the lower 60s. However, with only a few clouds to provide insulation, a good deal of heat will be lost into the atmosphere after sundown tomorrow night. So look for temps to hover just above freezing Wednesday night.
High pressure will stick around allowing temps to quickly recover by mid morning, Thursday. So we’ll see a few peaks of sunshine and highs in the low 60s before another low pressure system provides some upper level instability late Thursday night. Look for increased clouds and a few rain showers late Thursday night/Friday. Warm front associated with this system will keep snow out of the forecast for Thursday. However, a wave of cold air will sweep into the area Friday. Most of the precipitation could fall during the day, so sunshine minimizes the chance of snow. In fact it’s not worth mentioning, so I won’t mention snow! Precipitation will likely be in the form of rain. Still, below freezing temps are in store for Friday night.
Although the nights will remain cool, Saturday is shaping up to worth it. A big ol’glob of high pressure will move across the Great Lakes & camp out over the northeast givin’ us mostly sunny skies and temps reaching 60. A few clouds will roll in by Sunday. Chance of rain returns Sunday night/Monday next week. Enjoy the rest of the week & stay dry. Full moon arrives this weekend,then next week we'll put this month to bed. April, here we come!!

Sunday, March 21, 2010

Pants Optional

After this beautiful first weekend of spring, low pressure will bring rain showers, breezy conditions and maybe a few thunderstorms to our area around midnight tonight through Monday. More clouds will move in and keep temperatures stable in the low 50s tonight and mid 60s Monday. Cooler air moves in as the front passes Monday night. So I'm still keeping a slight chance of a rain/snow mix in the forecast for Monday night/Tuesday morning. Very little accumulation is expected as the low pressure system leaves the area sometime Tuesday. Weak high pressure will begin to build into the area Tuesday. So look for dry conditions, more sunshine and warmer temps Tuesday through Thursday. Cooler air and more rain is on tap for the end of next week. So stay tuned!

A few bolts of lightning have been spotted to the SW as the low pressure system treks NE, in our direction. First T Storm of the year???

Thursday, March 18, 2010

Bike Ridin' Weather

It’s been a while since I’ve heard any complaints about our weather. So I’m thinking that means either no one reads this or meteorological spring has sprung. Either way, we’ve got nice weather lined up for the next few days! However, the possibility of snow cannot completely be thrown out…just yet. If you’re asking, Friday and Saturday will be similar to today, only a few degrees warmer. So if you want to get a ride in; Friday and Saturday will be ideal. Nighttime temps will be in the mid to upper 40s through Sunday, when cooler air arrives (more on that in a momennt). Remember, mornings and nights will still be cool enough to wear pants!

Strong low pressure will likely bring rain back into our area Sunday evening. Weather models still disagree on the timing of Sunday’s weather. Some say that we’ll see rain during the day Sunday. Other charts point towards a slower arrival after dark. Bottom line: Sunday will be nice during thee daytime, but will become cloudy early. Still, if you want to try to squeeze a Sunday ride in, you could definitely do it before evening!

That system currently meandering its way across our county’s midsection will continue to produce rain showers for us Monday and perhaps even a few flakes of snow Monday night/Tuesday morning. Before you get all upset about the prospect of snow, let me say that snow chances are very slim and are limited to the higher elevations. Actual snow accumulation will barely be noteworthy even in the mountain counties where snow is more likely.

It’s also worth mentioning that there’s a slim chance of the first thunderclap of the year Sunday and Monday. So let me know if you hear it. Sunday’s temps will again reach well into the upper 60s. However we’ll contend with cooler temps as an upper level trough drops down from Canada. That’ll give us the slight chance of snow and cooler temps for the first half of next week. Even so, look forward to daytime temps reaching the mid to upper 50s next week. Skies will clear on Tuesday as high pressure builds into the area. Temps will also gradually warm up as next week progresses. More cool air and wet weather is tentatively on tap for Thursday night/Friday. More on that this weekend! Enjoy!!

Saturday, March 13, 2010

Chilly Water

Strong upper level low pressure system continues to affect the eastern U.S. through the rest of the weekend. Rainfall totals statewide were unimpressive and it seems as though north central West Virginia managed to escape the worst of this weekend’s precipitation. Even so, water sports would be unwise as swollen creeks and rivers across the state are discharging an immense amount of water. Look for patchy morning fog, mostly cloudy skies and the occasional isolated shower Sunday and Monday as a few bands of leftover moisture depart.

Tuesday, things will begin to dry out and water levels will recede as high pressure builds into the area. So look for a few peaks of sunshine between partly cloudy skies. The rest of next week will be dry and calm. We’ll start next week with cooler temps, so expect daytime highs to reach the mid 50s while night time temps will bottom out just above freezing. We’ll see more sunshine and slightly warmer temperatures reaching 60 degrees for the second half of next week. However, we may be in the crosshairs of another strong low pressure system arriving by next weekend. Confidence will improve with every new run of the weather models. Will have more solid info about next weekend soon!

Also don't forget to set your clocks forward tonight!!

Tuesday, March 9, 2010

Spring Showers Come Early

Here’s to enjoying a beautiful weekend followed by a nice Monday and an even nicer Tuesday (you should buy me lunch)! Despite all my hard work, the rest of this week & next weekend will not be nicerer. More on that in a minute. It took a lot of doing, but I was able to get warm temperatures to stick around through this weekend. Temps will actually warm up a bit between now (20:00 hrs, Tuesday) and dawn on Wednesday as a nice little warm front swings into our area. Warm temps will last for the next few days, which will aid in melting even more of that darn snow. However, cloud cover will help keep temps from rising above the mid 60s.

A weak front will bring a few light showers back into our area early Wednesday. So look for more snow to melt with that rainfall throughout the day Wednesday. Do not expect flooding to be a problem…yet. Although, there have already been a number of flood watches posted for central WV through Saturday evening as heavier rain moves in. Look for more flood watches to pop up for mountain counties and other parts of WV later this week.

Rain showers will continue Thursday morning, but will be incremental for the better part of Thursday. Temps will once again reach the low to mid 60s. A stronger low pressure system will move into our area Friday. This closed system has the potential to drop up to 2 inches of rain onto much of the eastern U.S. from Friday night through Sunday. The best chances for heavy rainfall will be Friday night through Saturday morning as the initial disturbance moves through our area. Steady rain showers will follow for the rest of the weekend as the low, drawing additional moisture from the Atlantic will stall and continue to rotate, tossing copious mounts of moisture in all directions all weekend long. Flooding will become more widespread, especially in the mountain counties. A few rumbles of thunder are also likely this weekend.

Although this weekend’s rain will be heavy enough to clear the roadways of the dust, salt and treatment chemicals leftover from this winter, you can drop your plans for building the Ark. I like the idea of allowing high pressure to build into our area sometime Tuesday. This along with some much needed sunshine will clear out any lingering moisture Tuesday afternoon. Birds will begin singing again, flowers will sprout little leaflets, and little bear cubs will learn how to fish. So, use caution this weekend while contending with high waters. Stay tuned for more updates. Your life may depend on it!

The Monongahela at Gray's Landing, about 20 miles north of Morgantown

Tygart Valley River in Philppi is forecast to rise nearly 7 ft right away(48hrs). Rafter's Delight!

Sunday, March 7, 2010

A Mild Start To March

Despite a pleasant weekend, enough snow still lies on the ground to create potential water hazards pending heavier rain, especially at altitude. Fortunately, snow continues to melt with grace and dignity as high pressure and upper level ridging provide sunny skies and warmer temperatures through the remainder of this first weekend in March. For now, I do not foresee snowmelt/water levels being a concern. Mild temps this week along with a few rain showers will hopefully melt most of the stubborn snow that remains on many slopes statewide. Daytime temps will continue to trend into the upper 50s and even into the 60s this week. Look for overnight lows in the upper 30s and low 40s.

A weak upper level disturbance will pass Monday, but rain showers will primarily be limited to southwestern West Virginia. We’ll simply see a few passing clouds and perhaps some light and patchy fog Tuesday morning as that system brushes past. Rain will be slow to develop in the Morgantown area as weather models push the ETA for another low pressure system back to late Wednesday. Models continue to show agreement on that system which will produce gentle rain showers beginning Wednesday evening. Partly cloudy skies and a few light rain showers will persist Thursday.

A strong upper level low pressure system will develop from the Pacific coast Monday and will slice through the continental U.S, gaining strength as it advances. This system will move into our area by Friday, bringing lots of moisture. It could potentially dominate the eastern U.S, drawing moisture from the Atlantic coast. High pressure in Canada and the far northeastern states could block the low, preventing its advance into the northeastern seaboard. This would provide the ingredients for the closed low pressure system to wrap around, delivering steady rain to much of the eastern U.S. Friday, Saturday and Sunday. In any case, the aforementioned precipitation will be in the form of rain as overnight temps hold steady in the upper 30s until Monday. Stay tuned as we may see a rain/snow mix Monday. Will continue to keep an eye on the track of that low for next weekend and will also track any potential water hazards however unlikely they may be.

High pressure to the north prevents the low from advancing. Low pressure "sits & spins" providing steady rain next weekend.

Thursday, March 4, 2010

Sunday Sunny Sunday

I’d like to take a moment to discuss the buzz I keeping hearing about 40 inches of snow we are supposed to get in March. Although I do maintain a certain level of respect for the Farmer’s Almanac, I do not recommend planning your weekend around its forecast. Naturally, I recommend planning your weekend around MY forecast. I’d say that the odds of us getting 40” of new snow in March are pretty slim. I’ll remind you that even though recent tectonic activity apparently shook the Earth so much that we have been set off our axis, making our days something like 0.00001 seconds shorter, the days are still getting longer. We will therefore be seeing more and more sunshine in the daytime. As our calendar moves closer to Spring Equinox (March 20th), the sun moves into a better position for providing more and more radiational heat. This is a good thing for all you folks preparing to set up a picket line outside my apartment window in protest of more snow! Bottom line: We’re sure to see a few more snow flurries add up to a few lousy inches of snow, but no 40”.
Getting down to brass tax, a few lingering snow flurries will be limited to our mountainous areas Thursday. The rest of WV can expect mostly cloudy skies with a high in the mid 30s Thursday. High pressure will build quickly into our area Friday, sweeping any lingering moisture out of our hair. So skies will be mostly sunny and temps will reach low 40s. With nary a cloud in sight, Friday night will be one of the coldest nights in a while. Look for temps Friday night to reach the mid teens in most areas. Like I said, more sunshine on Saturday will help temps reach the mid 40s.
Sunday will once again be aptly named and temps will peak around 50. So consider this your warning. You may be asked to perform something similar to yard work, car washing or other ritualistic Spring-related activity. Spend a few moments NOW thinking of reasons you can’t do those things. You have to make sure your canoe still floats after the heavy snow…you have scurvy…you forgot what a campfire looks like (I’m using that one!). You can thank me later. Whatever you do, be sure to enjoy this weekend. Clouds will begin to move in on Monday. More precipitation will arrive Monday night, continuing through Tuesday, ending sometime Thursday. Have a nice weekend & Happy Trails!